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wxextreme

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About wxextreme

  • Birthday 07/27/1989

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KFIT
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Ashby, MA

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  1. Just figured I would contribute here and post this image I found awhile back about forecasting n-hours out. This holds very true for this year and seemed appropriate for this thread.
  2. I am definitely hoping. I can definitely see some this being one of those storms that produces localized pockets of larger than consensus snow totals while others get a coating. The comment about snow totals is what is confusing me a little with the current NWS forecast. I am thinking they are likely using the standard 10:1 ratio in their forecast to just give a general idea of the spatial representative-ness of the snow totals, but like you said, I can definitely see these being adjusted higher with new model consensus. Although if this year taught me anything, is not to get too excited.
  3. Joining late to this conversation, trying to get myself excited over this storm, but cant pull myself to be excited. Looking like two inches for me, enough to coat the iced concrete snow outside.
  4. I am not so convinced, it usually happens that the valley below usually gets CAD and the icing is more significant there. Will be interesting to see. I have been thinking of setting up a mesonet in the area to explore this
  5. If the NAM is to be believed, Ashby and Central MA is going to have an interesting time with some freezing rain. I have a feeling that I may switch over to rain while the valley below will see a more freezing rain event. It is interesting the effect 200ft has on the significance of icing in Ashby.
  6. I am thinking for my neck of the woods, a good 6-8 inches with some sleet and freezing rain mixed in. Elevation will likely be key here and I am banking on the fact my WRF runs are correct. Lost the canopy of one of my trees Friday night, so a little worried with freezing rain what it will do to the rest of the tree...
  7. 3 inches here in Ashby, MA. Hoping to pick up another inch with the squall line today.
  8. Looking fairly good for me north of KFIT. Interesting to see how orographic enhancements set up as I live on the side of a fairly large hill adjacent to a mountain (Mt Watatic). Usually for these types of storms it aids in snow totals.
  9. Oops, didnt mean to call anyone out, but trying to understand how it was even brought up. Sorry about that
  10. Like I said, grasping at straws here trying to figure out how this was even brought up. I see a 50kt at 900mb, but that is about it.
  11. I have had a 70mph wind gust at my house in Ashby, MA. This was due to a very strong gust front. I also live in a wind tunnel and have three RM Young anemometers and a Downeaster Anemometer set up at my house (well sited) and get 40-50mph winds, but 60+ has only happened once in 3 years.
  12. There might be a slight arguement for Central to Eastern MA looking at these plots. Grasping at straws here trying to figure out the wishcast.
  13. Very, very true, I was looking at a similar wind field, and was extremely confused as to where this was even coming from. I honestly thought I was missing something.
  14. Big difference between reality and a wishcast. I agree with you, there is no way we will be able to mix down 60-70kt winds.
  15. OceanStWX, No offense wasnt meant by it (and I believe by reading none was taken). I have had the opportunity to visit your WFO while studying meteorology at Plymouth State University. Great facility and great forecasters there. One of my old coworkers lived in New Ipswich, NH and I lived in Ashby, MA. We were basically neighbors (1 mile down the road) and we would always go back and forth on how BOX anf GYX both predicted their snow totals. I also agree, BOX does tend to over predict at times as well (as I am sure all WFOs tend to do at one point or another). It was just amusing to see that southern NH tends (especially in my neck of the woods) gets over predicted quite a bit. I do agree with your gut check though, and it is something I tend to do as well.
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