Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 almost identical at 39 to 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: Not expecting the Euro to make any big swing anyways, Its not its make up, But a tic or two either way, Yes It hasn't moved more than like 30 miles in 5 days. Doubt it would make a 50 mile jump now but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I see no changes this run so far from 06z on the 12z Euro, Maybe noise at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: Ginxy's scrolls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Huh? I said something unsavory to him the other day and he got mad at me and said he didn't like being undermined. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, dryslot said: I see no changes this run so far from 06z on the 12z Euro. maybe just the distribution of the QPF, looks a bit wetter for eastern areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Yeah it's basically the same. SLP might slip east just a shade quicker than 06z edit: and yeah, it looks juicier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 9 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Our overall gestalt independent of models: this is an impressive High, the arctic air is fresh, and conversely this is not a phased super charged negatively tilted system charging in. I would anticipate a scoot east more than a GFS-esque track over Boston. I actually thought UK, which has a scoot east, was still decent for SNE. That's just short of hate speech. GYX folks still cringe at what they call the VD massacre of 2015, when their blizz-warned 12-18 (right up thru first flakes) verified at 1-2 for all but the SE part of their CWA. Meanwhile, DE Maine folks got their 20-25', pushing Machias' pack depth (at 20' asl) to 74". Despite the inevitable model wiggles, they've been too consistent for me to have much wide-right worry for this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Yeah no warmer luckily. Good burst of snow to begin it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Bostonseminole said: maybe just the distribution of the QPF, looks a bit wetter for eastern areas And that what i had mentioned earlier this mourning would be what we may see, A fluctuation in the qpf field and how it gets distributed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Steady Eddy. Thats impressive consistency for days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah no warmer luckily. Good burst of snow to begin it. I kno your sanity maybe riding on this front end thump. Are you hoping for 3-5 w that prior to sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Because the biggest transition zone is in SNE, the wobbles are perceived to be much larger than they actually are....so it creates a lot of hand wringing over the model outputs. And one that models cannot fully decipher will we are within the final stages prior to an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: I kno your sanity maybe riding on this front end thump. Are you hoping for 3-5 w that prior to sleet 5-8 for me was my range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: Steady Eddy. Thats impressive consistency for days now. Some can think or say what they want, But when the king speaks, You need to lend an ear to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, DomNH said: I wouldn't be shocked if the sleet line tickled MHT. We all have to accept it. I've been thinking Concord, but didn't dare say it last night. I 've been out on own with my thinking which for the record has been based solely on how this winter has unfolded (and admittedly near zero meteorological knowledge.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: And one that models cannot fully decipher will we are within the final stages prior to an event. Yep, the models will not be perfect...I've been hedging just a bit on the colder side of guidance because of the synoptics...I'll find out soon enough if that was the correct thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Looks about the same here. I think that's a pretty nasty icing event from HFD on southwest... including most of New Haven/Fairfield Counties. Still probably a good 4-8" front side SN/PL locally. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: 5-8 for me was my range. What about the backside thrashing (talking weather) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: 5-8 for me was my range. I'm was saying to @TauntonBlizzard2013 and @butterfish55 to shoot for 5-7", some sleet/ice/rain and then possibly some light snows on backside. Hopefully the WAA thump comes in like a wall. An hour or 2 in changeover makes a world of difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Some can think or say what they want, But when the king speaks, You need to lend an ear to it. This snow map is the same one it's shown for like 4 days now. Euro does love the mid-level fronto up this way though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Looks about the same here. I think that's a pretty nasty icing event from HFD on southwest... including most of New Haven/Fairfield Counties. Still probably a good 4-8" front side SN/PL locally. Can you maybe extend that from TOL county on SW? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I’m still slightly amazed it’s gonna snow more than an inch? how long has it been in SNE ....55 days ...60 days lmao 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 12z vs. 0z Euro... noise. Steady as she goes. The takeaway: there is no drastic northwest shift that would suggest fundamentally new ingest for the entire 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I'm was saying to @TauntonBlizzard2013 and @butterfish55 to shoot for 5-7", some sleet/ice/rain and then possibly some light snows on backside. Hopefully the WAA thump comes in like a wall. An hour or 2 in changeover makes a world of difference. so basically, an 80s style SEMA winter event. That's fine, we're due Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: This snow map is the same one it's shown for like 4 days now. Euro does love the mid-level fronto up this way though. The consistency is what sticks out, And from a long lead into this too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yep, the models will not be perfect...I've been hedging just a bit on the colder side of guidance because of the synoptics...I'll find out soon enough if that was the correct thinking. I'd side with your logic. There are a couple mitigating factors in my mind. There is the background "winter" that we have been having in SNE that's been warmer then normal and we also don't have any snowpack to speak of in SNE which would have helped facilitate the SLP sliding along that denseer cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: This snow map is the same one it's shown for like 4 days now. Euro does love the mid-level fronto up this way though. Coastal front subby zone from here to interior SW ME? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I’m still slightly amazed it’s gonna snow more than an inch? how long has it been in SNE ....55 days ...60 days lmao 65 days here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You are looking fine. What’s the worry? I'm just having fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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