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Bob Chill

January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Not sure where to put this but since the action has shifted to this thread-

Fwiw the 18z EPS has the 'local' jackpot zone from lower S MD across the bay to interior Sussex DE. 8-10".

How did our little corridor do?  Just north of the Jackpot I'd guess?

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Not sure where to put this but since the action has shifted to this thread-

Fwiw the 18z EPS has the 'local' jackpot zone from lower S MD across the bay to interior Sussex DE. 8-10".

Euro (&EPS) clearly have trended towards better action from the coastal on top of the WAA...that jackpot makes sense.

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Read some obs in the midwest thread. Looks like a positive reverse bust in progress in MO and IL. Extrapolate that at your leisure 

I wont extrapolate, but I just have a feeling..

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Read some obs in the midwest thread. Looks like a positive reverse bust in progress in MO and IL. Extrapolate that at your leisure 

A "positive reverse bust" - I think....  hope.....   pray...   that is a 4 letter word that starts with B and ends in M?  

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1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I wont extrapolate, but I just have a feeling..

This year is crazy. Almost every southern shortwave has overperformed midrange guidance. 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Read some obs in the midwest thread. Looks like a positive reverse bust in progress in MO and IL. Extrapolate that at your leisure 

If STL breaks there #1 snowfall record I think we are going to be in good shape.  Their # 1 is 15.6 from 1912.

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3 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said:

SREF bumps precipitation again at 21Z... DCA Mean up to .81" QPF. Zero members below .25"

Normally i totally ignore the srefs but 21z is hugworthy so I'm in.

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Normally i totally ignore the srefs but 21z is hugworthy so I'm in.

Yes...once you get into nowcast time, you hug the outliers, and dismiss the bad runs using faulty logic

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25/12 with a rising barometer at 30.39". Winds that have been gusting for 72 hours finally died down with sunset.  48 hours below freezing has frozen the ground pretty nicely.

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