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Bob Chill

January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast

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21F/DP 17 with a very small hint of daylight just showing up to my east. Perfect winter morning just before a snowstorm.

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24/21 - Nice rise in dp from when I went to bed.  Hats off to all those who stayed up so those mere mortal weenie wannabes like me could get some sleep, wake up and quickly read about getting named overnight and new additions to webster's dictionary of meteorology terms "according to Jeb" 

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As for headlines, did upgrade the advisory to a warning for the
northern Shenandoah Valley and the Washington Metropolitan area.
Am concerned that east-west oriented banding may cause locally
higher amounts across these areas. Frontogenetical forcing
increases as the low passes by to the south late tonight into
Sunday morning, and looking at the 00z nam bufkit, did notice
the Eqivalent Potential Temperatures nearly neutral with height
for a period between 06 and 12z along with slightly negative EPV
and Frontogenetical forcing that lines up, suggesting that CSI
banding is possible. Elsewhere, left the headlines from the
previous forecast. Still looking at a most likely of 2-5 inches
across northern Maryland, the eastern Panhandle of West Virginia
and the Baltimore Metropolitan areas, with 4-7 inches
elsewhere. Do want to point out that there is still uncertainty
regarding the placement and location of any banding
precipitation and also with the track of the low. Any slight
change in either direction will have an impact on snowfall
totals. Having that been said, there will be impact from snow
across the entire CWA tonight into Sunday.

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Yes!!! It's Happening!!! Soon....26/22. The evolution of the storm is going to be very interesting. St. Louis may have their second highest snow of all time if they reach 15in today or tonight. Good luck everyone. Looking forward to your observations. Be safe.

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22 minutes ago, Scraff said:

27/23. Prefect pre-snow morning.  

Side note—Cowboys will also win today 27-23. :)

If that happens AND WSW verifies it goes down with Dec 19, 2009, for me.  The night of the epic Christmas storm when dallas beat the undefeated saints..... also on a Saturday night!

Obs: 

26 / 17

30.47

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Fyiy the GEFS is north and still north then the OP. Don't think this north trend is over 

gfs-ens_apcpn_eus_12.png

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28/19 in Arlington.

Decided to head back down to my dorms today so I’ll be doing obs form Charlottesville by the time the storm gets here. I know some people dislike CHO but I hope everyone gets the best storm possible.

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Good morning from Fairfax!  It was fantastic to wake up to an upgrade to WSW!  I’m very optimistic about an over performing storm tonight and tomorrow. I keep raising the bar for mby.  Earlier this week I was hoping for 3”, then 5”, now I expect 6”, but 8-10 would make me ecstatic!  Just need the low to park where it needs to. We typically do quite well in Banding from the coast. Hope everyone around here does well!  

Currently 27/19 DP 

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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

28/19 in Arlington.

Decided to head back down to my dorms today so I’ll be doing obs form Charlottesville by the time the storm gets here. I know some people dislike CHO but I hope everyone gets the best storm possible.

I have a friend who moved from Chantilly to CHO a couple of years ago. She cashed in on snow in Dec. My son has a couple of friends heading back early to UVA today. You will do well down there again! 

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1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Woof. Ready to do this! 27/21 

Lived in Montclair for 17 years. Nothing prettier than a drive down Waterway during heavy snow. Unfortunately through the 90s and early 2000s all of the bradford pears they had in the median broke due to heavy snow or strong winds. They have been replaced with other more hearty trees but for time it was really unique. 

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28.2 / 17 currently in Severna Park

***Just for reference the current bay water temp (mid-bay) at Thomas Point Lighthouse is 40.3***

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That being said... if 12z nam shows another shellacking with support from current OBS, they need to move warnings north. 

25 degrees here in Howard county, humidity 66%, and dew is 16... still have room for temps to fall as column cools down from precip. Going to be an amazing scene out there tonight. Dark sky has 4-8” in my local forecast.  

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Hmm... 4-6'' seems like a good call for my house now based on the overnight trends north. If 12z holds north, I'll lock it in..

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