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nj2va

January Medium/Long Range Discussion

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29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Not to mention single digits behind the front. If we got a couple inches of snow topped with an inch of ZR followed by the ice box it would be dispruptive to put it as mildly as possible. lol

That sounds like a repeat of MLK weekend in 1994.

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4 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

GFS is a rainer

It's like 4-6" on the front end, deluge, and 1-2" on the back.  

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7 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Stick to being the Twitter bot

bots are perfect, does not compute   :-) 

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Maybe the cutters can setup the storm behind that which subsequently sets up the storm behind which lays the foundation for the system following allowing the baroclinic zone to establish itself for the one behind that. One of them should work :D

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14 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If its showing an ice storm then its bullshit.  Ice storms are almost always over modeled and underperform.  

Verbatim, that run is ugly, but agreed. Doubt we'll see anything like '94 for a very long time. 

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It's like 4-6" on the front end, deluge, and 1-2" on the back.  

Looked that way for maybe Northern MD, otherwise not much for DC Metro.. 

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I know the verification scores are low for the CMC, and that it often doesn't agree with the other models, but it seems to me that if anything, it's a little too snow/cold happy for our area compared to other models. Can anyone confirm or rebut? I don't really ever get my hopes up for a storm until the CMC shows something, even if most of them don't pan out. This is all speculation though based on 5 or so years of following this forum, and I'm curious what others have to say.

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6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It's like 4-6" on the front end, deluge, and 1-2" on the back.  

I’m 100% positive this will be our final solution. I’m all in....out....in. 

 

 

Eta: :lol:

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1 minute ago, Yeoman said:

Looked that way for maybe Northern MD, otherwise not much for DC Metro.. 

If you say so

gfs_asnow24_neus_21.png

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7 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

That sounds like a repeat of MLK weekend in 1994.

That was the most epic ice storm of all time... Was out of school what seemed like forever... Friends of mine didn’t get power back for 3+ weeks.

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6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Verbatim, that run is ugly, but agreed. Doubt we'll see anything like '94 for a very long time. 

It's been a while

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43 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Icon trended better @ h5 but it's a skating rink solution so I'm not sure everyone will call that "better". 

ETA: from a mby perspective. PSU is nude right now. 

I remember in 94 when I lived in Herndon VA we drive up to Harrisburg one weekend. My dad has a meeting there and took us along. It was March I think. And I was shocked once we got north of Frederick how there was still a glacier on the ground. Like a foot of hard packed snow. And huge piles everywhere. It was obvious they had a much different winter. 

But no two years are exactly alike. It’s true a -epo war pattern favors north. Storms tend to run the boundary and the boundary moves around but the further north the better chance that more of the storms stay south of you. 2014 might have been the south end of what can happen in that pattern. But 1994 isn’t necessarily the most likely outcome either. 2015 is kind of an in between scenario. No way to know how it plays out until it does. 

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2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

With the way temperatures seem to plummet afterward, would a flash freeze be something to look out for this weekend even if the precipitation doesn't fall as anything frozen?

Absolutely, and the temperature will not have to drop much to get issues going. 

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6 minutes ago, Quasievil said:

GFS really backed off its snow idea around here in 12Z. That track is atrocious. LOW in western VA means RAIN for all.

Not all. As depicted it is a brutal ice storm for the Shenandoah Valley.

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24 minutes ago, frd said:

My cold medication got the best of me this morning, I did post the NAO in error. However, I appreciate all the great feedback on the topic of the AO and the NAO.

I believe there was a recent post by my Mike Ventrice where he talks about the -NAO taking longer to evolve in this type of SSWE. He presented some good info on the topic showing comparisons on this year's SSWE to last years in Feb. anfd the subsequent NAO that developed .  

Agree with that analogy to last Feb. Difference is  this year the base state is much less hostile as we transition the next 2 weeks so we could catch a break. Last year the pattern did start to flux in mid Feb and we caught that low end event from the frontal wave but in general we were stuck in a Nina torch so we had to wait for the NAO to tank to have a shot. This year we have already scored during the flawed but ok transition pattern and could again. I decided to wait until after the early 12z guidance comes in to make my full pattern post during the dead time later. Don’t want to distract from the guidance analysis.  But I’m 50/50 on our chances to score a big hit (we likely see some snow given the plethora of chances) during the next 2 weeks and very optimistic after. 

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I had a lot of hope for this weekend storm.  But I think Robert Chill is right...this one screams more wet than white.

It's hard to deny the ridge in the midrange. There are ways for it to work but if we are being intellectually honest about everything... this is the most favored track by far. If we score we got lucky again. 

Or6YC4c.jpg

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GFS during the height of the storm is like 33-37 across our area.  Not far away from being cold enough.  Close enough to keep me interested. 

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Just now, DCTeacherman said:

GFS during the height of the storm is like 33-37 across our area.  Not far away from being cold enough.  Close enough to keep me interested. 

No one should be punting this before midweek at the earliest.  Trend this year has still been to move the storm track to our south.  

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

No one should be punting this before midweek at the earliest.  Trend this year has still been to move the storm track to our south.  

And after that beautiful powder event I'm totally game for a snow --> ice --> rain --> snow --> arctic cold type deal.

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