psurulz Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 No way...we have to keep the good karma going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 I updated on the coming pattern if any of you guys are interested....pretty much just an extension of previous thoughts. Don't be dissuaded by the miller B emphasis. I think you guys will do fine, as evidenced by the weekend. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/01/two-weeks-remaining-severe-second-half.html 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Don't be dissuaded by the miller B emphasis. I think you guys will do fine, as evidenced by the weekend. Thanks Ray, looks great ! And, love your headline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Does DCA crush climo with 2 events in 15 days? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Does DCA crush climo with 2 events in 15 days? Why not ! Then February is just gravy ! Not sure where March falls in then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I updated on the coming pattern if any of you guys are interested....pretty much just an extension of previous thoughts. Don't be dissuaded by the miller B emphasis. I think you guys will do fine, as evidenced by the weekend. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/01/two-weeks-remaining-severe-second-half.html I just want one EPIC snowstorm that blasts the megalopolis so I can tag all the tools on twitter that spent months arguing about the type of nino and ask "so is this a modoki or basin wide blizzard?" 3 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I just want one EPIC snowstorm that blasts the megalopolis so I can tag all the tools on twitter that spent months arguing about the type of nino and ask "so is this a modoki or basin wide blizzard?" If we get the huge second half, then I think that answers the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 What a pattern setting up on the 00z NAM.. you can see both north atlantic lows spinning out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 GFS was close again in ten days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Hose rattling gust to 52 just happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Hose rattling gust to 52 just happened How is that long range? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I updated on the coming pattern if any of you guys are interested....pretty much just an extension of previous thoughts. Don't be dissuaded by the miller B emphasis. I think you guys will do fine, as evidenced by the weekend. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/01/two-weeks-remaining-severe-second-half.html 40/70 Benchmark wrote: "Considering the evolution of the first half of the season, it is exceedingly difficult for the beleaguered calvary of winter aficionados to elude the perception of old man winter as an aging middle aged boxer, flailing away in vain during the final moments of a banal career." This is great stuff! I like to start my mornings with a good laugh, and just hitting the "like" button doesn't do this justice. Thanks for posting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 fv3 is a bunch of Miller Bs:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 The PSU storm on the 20th is alive and well on both the GFS and the Euro. Looks amazing actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 the pattern flip is psu's, the storm is snowmetheshow's 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 You know we are entering an active pattern with plenty of chances when the LR thread is silent....no unicorn hunting nor complaining of any sort. Amazing turn of events. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 hour ago, clskinsfan said: The PSU storm on the 20th is alive and well on both the GFS and the Euro. Looks amazing actually. I LOVE that threat window, as much as I can anything 10+ days away. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 13 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Does DCA crush climo with 2 events in 15 days? e2 wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I LOVE that threat window, as much as I can anything 10+ days away. Yeah me too...theres been a signal since D15 if you can buy a signal even from that range . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, nj2va said: Yeah me too...theres been a signal since D15 if you can buy a signal even from that range . well when the pattern is that favorable...there have been "signals" from that range before. I saw "the look" from 15 days out before the Feb snow blitz in 2010. It was in a different type of pattern but I was posting up in the PA forum in 2014 (lived in central PA for a year) about 2 weeks before we got absolutely buried with 3 straight snows in February that it looked great long range. We had been missing most of the January snows you were getting to the south. Again the 2016 threat showed up as a threat at long range. It's rare but given how good the pattern is its possible this is showing its hand that far out. Details will determine our specific outcome and those are a LONG way from being locked in though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Something isn't right about the pattern.. 6z GFS ensembles had +NAO showing up at the end, and 12z has a strong low going over the top near the Hudson bay- The medium range evolution doesn't seem right either, it seems like it wants to blast +NAO. All the ridging near Alaska, western Canada and the arctic is solitary, probably only connected to the Stratosphere and looks more like a transition than anything else. I fear for the February trend since 2013 which has been blowtorch/SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Not feeling this storm. Low energies, high soil temps, dead kittens. That sorta thing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 is that storm 3 or storm 4? we may have to start naming storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 10 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Not feeling this storm. Low energies, high soil temps, dead kittens. That sorta thing. Usually in a "perfect " world the GFS would have this about 200 miles offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, frd said: Usually in a "perfect " world the GFS would have this about 200 miles offshore. Interesting that it has snow within 50 miles of the LP. Probably something to do with the low resolution part of the 240hr+ GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, Cobalt said: Interesting that it has snow within 50 miles of the LP. Probably something to do with the low resolution part of the 240hr+ GFS There is high potential at that time frame, but hopefully not rain. And like wow, a 968 at that position, incredible. So, right there that should raise an eyebrow. And all those isobars, not sure the last time there was a modeled event from the GFS in that position below 970 mb and below 40 degrees North lattitude at this lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Well, that is pretty impressive. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 That's ensemble MEAN just in that time window!?! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, WxUSAF said: That's ensemble MEAN just in that time window!?! Yep, it's a straight up weenie run again... lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Yep, it's a straight up weenie run again... lol Holy sh-t. That's insane. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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