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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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2 hours ago, Lookout said:

"I just can't get over how horrible the winter outlooks have been. Normally when they bust they don't bother me because as i said the other day i never put any stock in them but this year it's really bugged me for some reason. "

 

 

Maybe because there was such a consensus for a cold and stormy winter in the South and East from so many that we respect and we got teased by the cold November and the early December big dog in NC.  A lot of people scoff at the Old Farmers Almanac but they've done better than most for this season - no disrespect to the bustees - it's definitely an art more than a science still.

 

old-farmers-almanac-winter-2019-twsnow-forecast-1000x678-min.jpg

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3 minutes ago, BK Rambler said:

Maybe because there was such a consensus for a cold and stormy winter in the South and East from so many that we respect and we got teased by the cold November and the early December big dog in NC.  A lot of people scoff at the Old Farmers Almanac but they've done better than most for this season - no disrespect to the bustees - it's definitely an art more than a science still.

 

old-farmers-almanac-winter-2019-twsnow-forecast-1000x678-min.jpg

They definitely did better with respect to temps in the SE, but that map is stupid.  It is an abomination to forecast maps!!

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7 minutes ago, BK Rambler said:

Maybe because there was such a consensus for a cold and stormy winter in the South and East from so many that we respect and we got teased by the cold November and the early December big dog in NC.  A lot of people scoff at the Old Farmers Almanac but they've done better than most for this season - no disrespect to the bustees - it's definitely an art more than a science still.

 

old-farmers-almanac-winter-2019-twsnow-forecast-1000x678-min.jpg

Ask those folks in Northern Minnesota if it was warm and dry this winter....  

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Don’t get me wrong, I love me some OFA.  We would have done well to heed their temp forecast around these parts.

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1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

Don’t get me wrong, I love me some OFA.  We would have done well to heed their temp forecast around these parts.

A -NAO and a SE ridge! I mean who would have thought we could pull that off? We just keep inventing was to fail!

1787A75D-9691-4616-94B0-5156D5ABC7A6.png.715a1ce65c181709449e9624350f8e98.png

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1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

 

 

1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

Hahaha an area of mild and snowy surrounded in all sides by warm and wet or warm and dry.  Lol

Yes it's a ridiculous looking map and I too laughed at the mild and snowy spot near Kansas City but ... here are some stats so far:

MSP Dec-Jan temps +2.4; Dec-Jan precip -15% (warm is a relative number in MN!)

KCI Dec-Jan temps +1.3; season-to-date snowfall 17" - seasonal average is 19" with Feb, March and even April to go for them

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3 hours ago, griteater said:

Live look at a wild U.S. Temperature Map

ozHlYTI.gif

This absolutely SUX! at least 3/4 of the nation actaully feeling like February, and some parts have even had a pretty good winter. I'll tell you what, the southeast ridge this past decade has been an absolute beast, and we just can't get it to go away. 

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50 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

This absolutely SUX! at least 3/4 of the nation actaully feeling like February, and some parts have even had a pretty good winter. I'll tell you what, the southeast ridge this past decade has been an absolute beast, and we just can't get it to go away. 

What's really incredible is that 74 reading in West Virginia. 

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49 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I love Upper 30s, especially during April! Have a feeling I’m going to love, love, love this April! # NEWSEATTLEMINUSTHESNOW!

I'm not going to be NAM'd for Sunday!

namconus_T2m_seus_46.png

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This thread should be closed, locked and burned.  Start another one for the second half of Feb.  Otherwise it should be renamed the "mid to long term between posts" thread.

This is so pathetic for winter.  I bet we are easily on pace to set records for the fewest number of events tracked, fewest posts for winter and fewest cliff jumpers....we never even climbed high enough to jump!

I'll come back in 24 hours to see the next post.  Maybe by then the models will show something better than an icy mix at 300 hours.

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1 hour ago, kvegas-wx said:

This thread should be closed, locked and burned.  Start another one for the second half of Feb.  Otherwise it should be renamed the "mid to long term between posts" thread.

This is so pathetic for winter.  I bet we are easily on pace to set records for the fewest number of events tracked, fewest posts for winter and fewest cliff jumpers....we never even climbed high enough to jump!

I'll come back in 24 hours to see the next post.  Maybe by then the models will show something better than an icy mix at 300 hours.

I guess I'll consider myself lucky for the 6" in December

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Of all the forecasters and their wonderful insight to why the weather should have been cold this winter, props to Hailstorm. He was the only one that gave an explanation as to why we weren't going to have the cold and had sound reasoning. Much more credence should be given to space weather as it seems this winter it has dominated our weather and yet no meteorologist even brings it up. Thanks again Hailstorm for your insight even though I didn't necessarily like to hear it.  

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1 hour ago, PisgahNCWeather said:

Of all the forecasters and their wonderful insight to why the weather should have been cold this winter, props to Hailstorm. He was the only one that gave an explanation as to why we weren't going to have the cold and had sound reasoning. Much more credence should be given to space weather as it seems this winter it has dominated our weather and yet no meteorologist even brings it up. Thanks again Hailstorm for your insight even though I didn't necessarily like to hear it.  

What's "space weather"

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3 hours ago, CaryWx said:

What's "space weather"

Solar stuff:  sunspot activity, solar winds, geomagnetic storms, coronal holes, etc.  We’re going into a deep and extended solar minimum.  Some theorize that it will lead to a cooler climate and harsher winters.  Less sunspots and a cooler surface of the sun lead to more coronal holes which produce more cosmic rays.  Still sort of a pick-‘em as to which side of the debate to believe, though personally, I lean toward the fact that it does/will play a significant role in our weather, particularly given the degree of this minimum.

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22 minutes ago, oconeexman said:

Today is a win for this winter! Hasnt gotten above 37 all day with a forecast high of 41. A little sleet this morning...EPIC 

35 and miserable here. Waiting for 60 and sunny!!

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2 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

Solar stuff:  sunspot activity, solar winds, geomagnetic storms, coronal holes, etc.  We’re going into a deep and extended solar minimum.  Some theorize that it will lead to a cooler climate and harsher winters.  Less sunspots and a cooler surface of the sun lead to more coronal holes which produce more cosmic rays.  Still sort of a pick-‘em as to which side of the debate to believe, though personally, I lean toward the fact that it does/will play a significant role in our weather, particularly given the degree of this minimum.

Thanks CR, but most of the blame I'm reading is attributed to the EPO and MJO.  Sounding like they are core and without them we cannot count on other indices to pull us through. 

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On 2/9/2019 at 7:45 AM, mwp1023 said:

Pear and Cherry trees are starting to bloom and the Maple trees are budding.  Looks like an early spring

No,  well have a good hard freeze to kill them all off ...  then it will get warm

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