• Member Statistics

    15,741
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    mcblimp95
    Newest Member
    mcblimp95
    Joined
Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

Recommended Posts

9 minutes ago, JoshM said:

GFS caving to Euro :) Baby Steps

It goes about it in a different way, but yeah, there’s potential here if we get a good cold dome to drop down. The GFS storm there is a follow on wave that drops into the trough

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, griteater said:

It goes about it in a different way, but yeah, there’s potential here if we get a good cold dome to drop down. The GFS storm there is a follow on wave that drops into the trough

As long as we get there I don't mind if we take the scenic route or not.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

0Z GFS with a light to moderate snow for the 13th system , 0Z CMC has a Major ICE Storm... let's see what the 0Z EURO shows.... pattern is favorable,  just need some good timing for this storm to occur. Plenty of time to watch 

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If we get a couple of those massive highs to come down like the models are suggesting, and if they can hang on for a while without racing east, there will be a winter storm at some point.  The STJ is active.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice trend w/ the GFS...   Confluent flow over the NE.. kicks the whole southern upper low out, though phases in a s/w from the polar jet that winds up the sfc low a bit too early and pulls the "primary" low into the TN valley but with the 50/50 low it spins off a coastal quickly as well.

0z Euro, however, dropped it this run.  But this is 7-9 day range.. I like our chances.

 

zKa8lkV.png

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, JoshM said:

6z GFS went all in :weenie:

Hour 222 has a 1050 Banana High

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_39.png

Who needs power anyway? 

I could see a changeover event, but to state the obvious, climo is against us. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, Wow said:

Nice trend w/ the GFS...   Confluent flow over the NE.. kicks the whole southern upper low out, though phases in a s/w from the polar jet that winds up the sfc low a bit too early and pulls the "primary" low into the TN valley but with the 50/50 low it spins off a coastal quickly as well.

0z Euro, however, dropped it this run.  But this is 7-9 day range.. I like our chances.

 

zKa8lkV.png

Yes , absolutely... Hopefully the Euro will come back around today.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I don't want an ice event. 

Yeah especially what with temps based off of yesterday 12z Euro and today's 6z gfs.

Low teen dewpoints with temps wet bulbing mid to upper 20s.

Gonna be lights out along the transition line. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

95% chance it ends up a rain event, outside mountains and S of 40

I live 1/4 mile North of 40 in Eastern NC.  Sweet!  Bring on the snow!  Thanks for the official forecast!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, LithiaWx said:

Here is what she responded to.  My opinion is Burns jumped the gun.  He’s the chief meteorologist in a major city.    He could wait for at least a little more smoke before saying there may be a fire. 
 

66A8E141-79E3-48A3-8D24-DB24615163A1.jpeg

Ridiculous to post about getting prepared for an ice storm more than a week out in the South... Like what could you even do a week out for an ice storm??? On top of the likelihood nothing will happen. This comes across as clickbait

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Ridiculous to post about getting prepared for an ice storm more than a week out in the South... Like what could you even do a week out for an ice storm??? On top of the likelihood nothing will happen. This comes across as clickbait

He did highlight COULD.  Low percentage chance but it boosts ratings generally  in the SE!  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

Who needs power anyway? 

I could see a changeover event, but to state the obvious, climo is against us. 

Climo isn't necessarily against us. Some of our (Raleigh Area) most crippling ice storms have occurred in the first part of December. I would say climo would be against all-snow more than an ice event

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Climo isn't necessarily against us. Some of our (Raleigh Area) most crippling ice storms have occurred in the first part of December. I would say climo would be against all-snow more than an ice event

Makes sense. Most of my life I lived in the DC area, and ice storms seemed pretty rare in December, compared to January/December. I guess CAD holds stronger in NC and it makes a difference this time of year to be further inland(but conversely the warm push aloft is stronger)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Makes sense. Most of my life I lived in the DC area, and ice storms seemed pretty rare in December, compared to January/December. I guess CAD holds stronger in NC and it makes a difference this time of year to be further inland(but conversely the warm push aloft is stronger)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Carolina_ice_storm_of_2002

Worst one of my life was occurring today, 17 years ago. Still remember the eerie noise of trees popping all over the neighborhood that morning. Had to cut our way out. Brutal cold followed it without power meaning many nights huddled up as a family by the fireplace

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On the 12z GFS, the timing between the front bringing in the cold air and the follow up wave that kicks out and yields the storm was actually better this run.  Problem is, the initial cold trough didn't press as much this run and it lifted out quickly, so it's warm with rain.  Could be more chances coming down the line on the GFS run as it continues to be fairly cold out to hr249

12z UKMet at 144 isn't quite as quick to move out the initial cold trough as the GFS, though not a huge difference.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Carolina_ice_storm_of_2002

Worst one of my life was occurring today, 17 years ago. Still remember the eerie noise of trees popping all over the neighborhood that morning. Had to cut our way out. Brutal cold followed it without power meaning many nights huddled up as a family by the fireplace

Man I remember that well.  I was in college at UNCG. A magical event.  I remember that winter overall was quite nice.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, eyewall said:

And this is why we don't get take 10 days out too seriously on model runs.

The threat is certainly over with now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

10 days out individual model runs do not matter much as the overall set up.  According to all the posts I have seen, it is looking OK right now.  Sit back, relax, drink a bourbon and just keep an eye on it.  Excitement for me starts 5 days out, and confidence starts to build 3 days out, actual worry, joy, or call to action is at the less than 48 hours to go and much positivity across the board.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

The threat is certainly over with now.

I never said that but obviously it is highly variable still from run to run.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.