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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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Looks "spooky" dry from Triangle east through the end of all model runs. Quite the difference from the western half of the Carolinas to the eastern side in terms of modeled precip

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2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Looks "spooky" dry from Triangle east through the end of all model runs. Quite the difference from the western half of the Carolinas to the eastern side in terms of modeled precip

So far it looks good (model wise). Most show heaviest precip starting ~ or after mid-night. (but)RAH has "Likely" category for precip starting at 8pm for my grid location.   

My two youngest kids still trick or treat so I'm really hoping it holds off as the models currently show.  

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Kind of crazy to get this trough so early and so cold.

 

But looking at the radar. Haven't seen this type of precip shield in along long time.

Basically the eastern half of the Us. 

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On 10/23/2019 at 3:47 PM, mackerel_sky said:

GFS sucks nuts! My 4 inches of rain is now down to sprinkles this weekend! Droughtbuster

Can't wait for this front to get here, currently 71, while its 30s in NW MS.

Unfortunately,  it looks like it's going to lose a lot of punch for areas east of apps, not nearly as cold of a forecast for this side.

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1 hour ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Can't wait for this front to get here, currently 71, while its 30s in NW MS.

Unfortunately,  it looks like it's going to lose a lot of punch for areas east of apps, not nearly as cold of a forecast for this side.

Yeah cold air really has a hard time getting over the Apps.

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48 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Yo-yo month ahead for temps according to GooFuS.  Should be some pretty wild swings even beginning this week into next weekend.  Brrrr.....:shiver:

Surprisingly on the BN side more than the AN side!!!

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12 GFS close to showing some non-rain precip next Friday.  Temps hovering in the 30s all day in CAD areas.

r6id7wN.png

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I'll take this look @ 150hrs anytime. And considering this is the first week of November
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_25.png&key=10e84d615efefe134df08b9262391fcba27e87f4cb2f4b837b762c7c84953ae4


If that high can be 10 mb stronger. A lot of areas could see ice in November!


.

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37 minutes ago, JoshM said:

And by hour 240 (ya, i know) the cold bomb drops

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

Yep, many areas do not get above freezing for highs one day. That would be something to see in November. 

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33 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Yep, many areas do not get above freezing for highs one day. That would be something to see in November. 

That would be pretty epic for November so I doubt it will verify.

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59 minutes ago, yotaman said:

That would be pretty epic for November so I doubt it will verify.

It will probably get cold. Add 10 degrees to the 18z GFS and we'd still be talking record temps. I would think 40s highs with lows in the 20s would be a great guess at this point. **folks have been talking about the GFS cold bias in the LR. 

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The 6z GFS continues to show the potential wintery event. I think it's possible, but (of course) there are many factors not in the favor of a good winter storm. One key thing to tract in the coming days (if we're tracking), is how fast we can get the lower dew points to push into the CAD regions. Right now, I don't think it's enough. Dew points in the teens get into N VA but only get down into the upper 20s (at best) down into N NC. My thoughts, if this was to materialize as shown on the GFS we would probably get some mixed snow/sleet with the rain. And then if it did switch over it would really have a hard time accumulating. **it would be a typical (rare) November winter event outside the mountains.  

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Let it be noted that Josh M is the owner of the first official "BOOM!" of the 2019/2020 winter season.  Marking Nov 3rd as the date.

Congrats Josh!  You now own the winter.  Its on you friend!  Only JBurns can remove that curse from you but he wont until he receives at least 1 Big Dog and snow Christmas Eve.  So get busy.  :P:snowing: 

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GFS on its own right now keeping this wave moving along and not getting crushed, ironically.  Euro parking the wave over the SW and doesn't kick it along.

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7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

12z GFS, she gone! 
Congrats DC! Get use to that statement!

Maybe for some, but not all.

 

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