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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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I didn’t expect to hit 96, with only around 12 hours of sun! I guess when the ground has turned hard as concrete, cracked and parched, there’s no soil moisture whatsoever left to retard heating! I guess September record heat is better than October snow!? But I’m sure we can still pull it off!
Consider yourself lucky, on board temp on my mom's truck as I headed to work was 101...

Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk

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Dust off the skivvies!!! RAH says:

For those looking for 
cooler weather, next weekend could be a breath of fresh air as a 
legitimate cold front looks to push through the area and possibly 
bring temperatures to below normal values for early October.
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11 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

I dont see how it cannot cool down.  Shorter days quickly limiting heating, sun angle getting lower to reduce efficiency of heating, and there's going to be 4 feet of snow on the ground along the Canadian border! 

Look at the bright side, if this keeps up we may be on the firing line for some epic winter storm tracks!

Epic winter storm tracks that still manage to produce rain?

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2 hours ago, Solak said:

Dust off the skivvies!!! RAH says:

For those looking for 
cooler weather, next weekend could be a breath of fresh air as a 
legitimate cold front looks to push through the area and possibly 
bring temperatures to below normal values for early October.

See the source image

"It's a hoax, I suggest we all leave." 

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I don't know^^, models are definitely showing a cool down for the end of next week. The average may not be too far below normal but at least it'll be below normal. The GFS would have highs in the 60s with lows ~50 a couple of days. With all the heat we've had, that's something to get excited about.... 

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On 9/19/2019 at 9:45 AM, NorthHillsWx said:

Hopefully a wet pattern starts soon. Not seeing much hope on the models. Keep checking back hoping for a change. Only good news is timing for duck season. Going into duck season it's going to be very little water (opposite of last year). Birds are going to have fewer places to go so hopefully my farm which has great beaver swamps that always hold water will have more birds as they will be less spread out and more prone to use continual sources of water, Looking at the positive of this!

Rabbit season. 

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NWS GSP office has this on their AFD page - records for the coming week before the cooldown:

 

RECORDS FOR 09-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      85 1981     50 1924     65 2018     30 1967
                1941                    1955
                1897                    1927
   KCLT      91 1926     56 1984     72 1904     38 1888
   KGSP      94 1933     59 1984     70 1954     32 1888



RECORDS FOR 10-01

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      86 1941     49 1920     65 1971     29 1895
                1897
   KCLT      92 1954     60 1899     72 1881     39 1899
   KGSP      93 1911     61 1984     71 1971     39 1993
                            1947                    1899



RECORDS FOR 10-02

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      87 1897     51 1958     65 1971     28 1895
   KCLT      92 1986     52 1958     72 1986     36 1899
                1954
   KGSP      93 1933     50 1958     69 1941     35 1895
                1884



RECORDS FOR 10-03

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      88 1954     56 1987     66 1941     23 1895
                            1929
   KCLT      91 1986     56 1974     72 1898     36 1974
                1954        1958        1883
                1926
   KGSP      92 1884     56 1958     70 2007     30 1974
                                        1898



RECORDS FOR 10-04

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      86 1986     54 1921     67 1941     22 1895
   KCLT      95 1954     60 1974     72 1898     33 1974
   KGSP      94 1954     58 1957     72 1941     32 1974



RECORDS FOR 10-05

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      90 1941     50 1980     65 1998     29 1968
   KCLT      97 1954     57 1980     73 1986     38 2014
                                                    1974
   KGSP      96 1954     56 1980     70 2007     33 1974
                                        1954



RECORDS FOR 10-06

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      90 1941     49 1932     64 2005     33 2010
                                        1955        1974
                                        1895        1970
   KCLT      98 1954     58 1883     71 1954     38 1935
                                        1884
   KGSP      97 1954     56 1968     70 2018     39 1985
                                                    1979
                                                    1964

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17 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

NWS GSP office has this on their AFD page - records for the coming week before the cooldown:

 

RECORDS FOR 09-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      85 1981     50 1924     65 2018     30 1967
                1941                    1955
                1897                    1927
   KCLT      91 1926     56 1984     72 1904     38 1888
   KGSP      94 1933     59 1984     70 1954     32 1888



RECORDS FOR 10-01

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      86 1941     49 1920     65 1971     29 1895
                1897
   KCLT      92 1954     60 1899     72 1881     39 1899
   KGSP      93 1911     61 1984     71 1971     39 1993
                            1947                    1899



RECORDS FOR 10-02

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      87 1897     51 1958     65 1971     28 1895
   KCLT      92 1986     52 1958     72 1986     36 1899
                1954
   KGSP      93 1933     50 1958     69 1941     35 1895
                1884



RECORDS FOR 10-03

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      88 1954     56 1987     66 1941     23 1895
                            1929
   KCLT      91 1986     56 1974     72 1898     36 1974
                1954        1958        1883
                1926
   KGSP      92 1884     56 1958     70 2007     30 1974
                                        1898



RECORDS FOR 10-04

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      86 1986     54 1921     67 1941     22 1895
   KCLT      95 1954     60 1974     72 1898     33 1974
   KGSP      94 1954     58 1957     72 1941     32 1974



RECORDS FOR 10-05

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      90 1941     50 1980     65 1998     29 1968
   KCLT      97 1954     57 1980     73 1986     38 2014
                                                    1974
   KGSP      96 1954     56 1980     70 2007     33 1974
                                        1954



RECORDS FOR 10-06

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      90 1941     49 1932     64 2005     33 2010
                                        1955        1974
                                        1895        1970
   KCLT      98 1954     58 1883     71 1954     38 1935
                                        1884
   KGSP      97 1954     56 1968     70 2018     39 1985
                                                    1979
                                                    1964

Wow.  1954 was a miserable early October.

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Really more of a banter post but maybe you guys will indulge me.

Realities that I need to learn to accept .

1. There is nothing remotely fallish about September now.  It is August part deux.

2. December is a fall month (except for random episodes like our early snow last year)

3. February is a spring month.

4. The NAO/AO will be positive (except maybe in March/April).  Do not believe any forecast which shows them negative for a significant period of time.

5. The SER loves me and knows what's best for me.

6. Repeat: the NAO/AO will not be negative.  Do not buy into the weekly forecasts

7. Whenever models disagree, always trust the warmer one.

8. Seriously: do not expect the NAO/AO to ever go truly negative in DEC - FEB again.

9. Models will flawlessly pick-up on warm spells except they underestimate their intensity .

 

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5 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Really more of a banter post but maybe you guys will indulge me.

Realities that I need to learn to accept .

1. There is nothing remotely fallish about September now.  It is August part deux.

2. December is a fall month (except for random episodes like our early snow last year)

3. February is a spring month.

4. The NAO/AO will be positive (except maybe in March/April).  Do not believe any forecast which shows them negative for a significant period of time.

5. The SER loves me and knows what's best for me.

6. Repeat: the NAO/AO will not be negative.  Do not buy into the weekly forecasts

7. Whenever models disagree, always trust the warmer one.

8. Seriously: do not expect the NAO/AO to ever go truly negative in DEC - FEB again.

9. Models will flawlessly pick-up on warm spells except they underestimate their intensity .

 

You've pretty much nailed it. At least for the upstate, and points south, we've become a 3 season area. Fall: Oct - Jan. Spring: Feb - April. Summer: May-Sept

Every once in a blue moon we'll tease with cold and possibly some sleet in Dec or Jan.:thumbsdown:

You might could add:

10. Any cool/cold shown on modeling is just a tease. If it actually does happen, it will get pushed back for weeks at a time. 

11. A cool/cold front means it will get us back to 30 year norms for a short while so enjoy it if it happens to you. 

12. Every year we're guranteed at least 2 months where we think, "Man it can't be as hot as this month last year!" And then it turns out to be worse. 

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The 6z GFS looks to at least get most of us back to normal (..averaged through the end of the run) starting this weekend. Nothing really cold but it would be beautiful fall weather if it verifies.    

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2 hours ago, tramadoc said:


Duck season

Why want cold weather when we can fish year round without heavy gear?

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Promising discussion about rain next week from GSP NWS. 

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 115 PM Monday: Starting Thursday evening after the 500mb ridge
has flattened and a cold front approaching from the NW. The ECMWF
has been consistent in showing a bone dry frontal passage.  The GFS
has been the wetter model but now shows little if any rain for our
area with this front. The front should be moving through the
Midlands by early Friday morning. Therefore, no influence from
diurnal heating. The cooler air will make for a milder day in the
mountains and still hot in the piedmont Friday but at least below
record highs. The cool high pressure will be over the Great Lakes
Friday afternoon and over New England Saturday afternoon. This will
bring our temperatures down to near normal over the weekend. There
will be a strong shortwave moving through the west to east flow
across the nation. The GFS is more progressive bringing the best
chance of rain next Monday. The EC digs a deep trough next week and
deep flow out of the Gulf bringing heavy rain to our area next
Tuesday. Of course, the current forecast ends Monday night. CAPE on
the GFS Monday afternoon around a 1000 from Elberton GA to Charlotte
and rapidly goes to zero in the foothills. QPF amounts from a tenth
to a half inch on Monday which is the best in weeks. We can hope for
at least that continuing through passage of the shortwave and front.
Since the coverage on the models is so good, I would carry higher
POPs on Monday but it is Day 7. Lots can change in a week. Max temps
rise on Monday to about a category above normal.

 

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20 hours ago, WxKnurd said:

And some know the fish bite better on Norman the colder and nastier it is lol

If you like to catch 1/2 pound spots!  I actually love to fish Kerr in the cold with a crank.  They eat!  Loose attempt to psyche myself up for the continued blaze!

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