• Member Statistics

    15,532
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Rowdy2x
    Newest Member
    Rowdy2x
    Joined
Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

Recommended Posts

One thing has me perturbed.  A few days ago it looked as if the front was going to stall and we would get several days of elevated rain chances.  Now it's going to barrel through in one day.  If I miss out on Tuesday, it's dry for another week.  I'll be anxious all day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

One thing has me perturbed.  A few days ago it looked as if the front was going to stall and we would get several days of elevated rain chances.  Now it's going to barrel through in one day.  If I miss out on Tuesday, it's dry for another week.  I'll be anxious all day.

Was thinking the same thing. At least they're predicting a 'decent' amount of rain.

From this morning's AFD

Rainfall amounts in the 1 to 1.5 inch range will be possible during 
this 12 to 18 hour period, with higher amounts possible in areas 
that see training or slow moving thunderstorms

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
50 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

The heat wave was kind of lackluster here.  Saturday wasn’t even hot relative to recent days despite the excessive heat warming.

You were lucky. it was roasting down in the coastal plain.

  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, superjames1992 said:

The heat wave was kind of lackluster here.  Saturday wasn’t even hot relative to recent days despite the excessive heat warming.

I didnt know you're in Durham now! what part of town are you in?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/22/2019 at 8:25 PM, superjames1992 said:

The heat wave was kind of lackluster here.  Saturday wasn’t even hot relative to recent days despite the excessive heat warming.

I'm in southern Wake and it was unbearable...  I don't remember Saturday but sunday and monday were horrible..  upper 90s close to 100.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/23/2019 at 7:30 AM, Queencitywx said:

I didnt know you're in Durham now! what part of town are you in?

I moved here a couple months ago!  I live in SW Durham not far from exit 270 on I-40, right off US-15-501.  Looking forward to seeing some snow again this winter!

 

9 hours ago, PackGrad05 said:

I'm in southern Wake and it was unbearable...  I don't remember Saturday but sunday and monday were horrible..  upper 90s close to 100.

Yeah, Sunday was worst (it got up to 99 here), but Saturday was supposed to top out at 100 and only got up to 95, which was cooler than a lot of days recently, LOL.

Also, as I’ve spent the last three summers in Florida, none of this feels all that bad, haha.  I’m glad we’re getting more seasonable temperatures the rest of the week, though (a bit below average, actually).  80s feel great...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

I moved here a couple months ago!  I live in SW Durham not far from exit 270 on I-40, right off US-15-501.  Looking forward to seeing some snow again this winter!

 

 

Sweet! Sean is up in NW Durham with me. We're over by Bennett Place. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

Sweet! Sean is up in NW Durham with me. We're over by Bennett Place. 

Oh, nice!  I didn’t realize you were up in this area now, too!  Were you here for the big storm last year?  I think your area probably got 12”+?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 hours ago, superjames1992 said:

Oh, nice!  I didn’t realize you were up in this area now, too!  Were you here for the big storm last year?  I think your area probably got 12”+?

Yeah, 10” day one and almost 2 on the second day. It would’ve been a heck of a storm if we didn’t change to that rainy slop that afternoon. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's way too early to be worried about cold and snow but what is all this nonsense popping up in my Youtube feeds about August cold, amazing fall snow totals, polar vortexes and the like??  You would think winter starts tomorrow and its going to be epic!  I think once I clicked on one video Youtube turned my recommendations into weather weenie central.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have a gut feeling the United States will see one big land falling hurricane. Just my gut could be wrong


.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

38 days until Labor Day 

This is kind of a disappointing time of year. The last few days have been especially cool. 

 

10 hours ago, Jessy89 said:

I have a gut feeling the United States will see one big land falling hurricane. Just my gut could be wrong


.

SSTs are record warm, 2005-like. ENSO is cooling too. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This front will actually stall which will be interesting to watch! 

 

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1039 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM Mon: Return flow around the Bermuda High will
continue thru midweek. Tuesday night a cold front will push
across the Appalachians in conjunction with a well defined upper
trough. This warrants a slower than usual decline in diurnal
convective chances. However it seems the CAM guidance responds to
the relatively high LCLs by depicting little overnight activity. So
even though PoPs were allowed to linger into the night, chances
are not especially high. That trough effectively will remain
in place over the Eastern Seaboard thru the remainder of the
period, maintaining better midlevel lapse rates than we normally
experience this time of year. Likely PoPs result Wed aftn over the
mountains and in a portion of the Piedmont where storms will be
able to propagate. Again Wed night, with MCVs potentially rotating
thru the upper trough
, a small nondiurnal PoP is included in the
fcst. Dewpoints recover a little bit Thu compared to Wed, so likely
PoPs result in most areas at peak heating that day. Temps overall
will be seasonable: slightly above normal Wed but near normal Thu
under more cloud cover.

Deep layer shear will remain fairly weak despite the trough, so
slow-moving storms producing heavy rain will be possible any time
they develop during the period. Drier air will be present aloft
behind the front on Thursday, with sfc-midlevel delta-theta-e
values becoming supportive of a wet microburst threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 155 pm Monday: Starting Thursday evening with the 500mb
pattern showing a trough over the East and a ridge over the Rockies
and western Plains centered over New Mexico. The trough axis
Thursday evening will be from Ohio to Alabama. The axis is forecast
to shift a little east to being over the Appalachian mountains over
the weekend and into early next week.  The wind flow is forecast to
be less than 10 knots up to 700mb through the medium range. The
stationary front over our region will continue to slowly dissipate.

A tropical wave that is currently over the eastern Caribbean Sea is
forecast to move to somewhere near Florida over the weekend and
would contribute to the amount of moisture over the Southeast. If
this system were to track more directly over our area, we could get
quite a bit of rain.  Too early to say at this point as the system
has not yet formed into an organized low pressure.  This extended
period of wet weather could add up to a saturated ground in some
areas. The GFS and ECMWF diverge a bit toward the middle of next
week as the GFS brings a closed low SE toward the Great Lakes.  This
would further serve to reinforce the longwave trough. The EC has the
trough lifting some as the western ridge builds a little more east.
Max temperatures will be 3 to 5 degrees below normal due to the
cloud cover and Min Temps will be near normal.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/26/2019 at 9:40 AM, kvegas-wx said:

It's way too early to be worried about cold and snow but what is all this nonsense popping up in my Youtube feeds about August cold, amazing fall snow totals, polar vortexes and the like??  You would think winter starts tomorrow and its going to be epic!  I think once I clicked on one video Youtube turned my recommendations into weather weenie central.

After witnessing over 160 inches of snow last two winters, adjusting back to North Carolina winters will be very difficult. Not thrilled about living in area with 6"/year snowfall average rather than 60"/year. I'll miss having snow depth of over 6" for three months straight.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, WxBlue said:

After witnessing over 160 inches of snow last two winters, adjusting back to North Carolina winters will be very difficult. Not thrilled about living in area with 6"/year snowfall average rather than 60"/year. I'll miss having snow depth of over 6" for three months straight.

Sorry for your loss but good to have you back to share in our pain none the less. Maybe this could be our year..... 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

Sorry for your loss but good to have you back to share in our pain none the less. Maybe this could be our year..... 

Living close to family and friends again will always be worth it over weather seasons. Can't take away incredible memories of last two winters, though :)

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Has anyone else had trouble accessing KGSP AFD?  It has not been updated since Wednesday evening....

Yes, i saw that: it might be fixed now with the most recent update.  What seemed to have happened was that the new updates were accessible through the 2, 3, or 4 clickable number links depending on where they ended up each time, which would normally contain just-prior updates)!  It may have been that the Wednesday update was stuck at 1, causing new updates to be placed behind it. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 hours ago, WxBlue said:

After witnessing over 160 inches of snow last two winters, adjusting back to North Carolina winters will be very difficult. Not thrilled about living in area with 6"/year snowfall average rather than 60"/year. I'll miss having snow depth of over 6" for three months straight.

Where were you located?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Pattern over the next 10 days shows frequent troughs coming down from Canada...but unlike this spring, there won’t be much of a gradient south for widespread rainfall risks, more scattered with many staying drier. Shots of brief warmth in between otherwise cooler #agwx #natgas https://t.co/Az7yiVjroG

Well forecast for my area over the next two weeks don't show any signs of cooler, in fact they show warmer, to around 90 every day. 

Usually see this first notch of a cooldown second half or last week of August. This is the time of year I get really restless for fall, even though theres still a few weeks to go.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Daily Hi/Lo averages across the triad and most of the carolinas dont really fall much in August.  September is the cliff.  Drops from mid 80's down to low 70's for Highs and down into the low 50' for lows.  So not much relief....yet.  But certainly a pause from 90's for many.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Daily Hi/Lo averages across the triad and most of the carolinas dont really fall much in August.  September is the cliff.  Drops from mid 80's down to low 70's for Highs and down into the low 50' for lows.  So not much relief....yet.  But certainly a pause from 90's for many.

We typically don't see low 70's and 50's at night until mid October.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.