NorEastermass128 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: Later weeks actually look even better. January could be alot of fun and little sleep. We’ll catch up on zzz’s in the Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Later weeks actually look even better. January could be alot of fun and little sleep. Looks like its to the pkg store for some Crown! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: Later weeks actually look even better. January could be alot of fun and little sleep. Sorry I didn't get back to you. Pretty sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: Later weeks actually look even better. January could be alot of fun and little sleep. The epic soeaster 12 24 14 started the wheels in motion 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Weeklies: 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 21 minutes ago, dryslot said: Looks like its to the pkg store for some Crown! Let’s do this! After this week, no work til 2019. Lots of waiting for the euro over Crown 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 week 3 & 4 torchy ==> Weeklies have little skill that far out. Toss. week 3 & 4 cold/snowy ==> Pop open the Cristal 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: week 3 & 4 torchy ==> Weeklies have little skill that far out. Toss. week 3 & 4 cold/snowy ==> Pop open the Cristal Now you’re getting it! Although I did say earlier let’s hoe they’re right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: week 3 & 4 torchy ==> Weeklies have little skill that far out. Toss. week 3 & 4 cold/snowy ==> Pop open the Cristal Are you new to AMWX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Are you new to AMWX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Very good look on weeklies ironic thing is shift that deep low near Alaska several hundred miles east and it looks like the one eyed pig ,no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Very good look on weeklies ironic thing is shift that deep low near Alaska several hundred miles east and it looks like the one eyed pig ,no? sure if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 47 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Very good look on weeklies ironic thing is shift that deep low near Alaska several hundred miles east and it looks like the one eyed pig ,no? Aleutian low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Just now, dendrite said: sure if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle Lol she could transition,no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 21, 2018 Author Share Posted December 21, 2018 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: You might be right..though this was actually more like Jan 4-5th...about D15. Maybe it's totally unrelated...because you're right that the tropospheric lag would def be more toward mid january. Though I'm not totally well-versed in this enough to say that if we are getting something historical that we wouldn't see the response be a little faster. Maybe that doesn't matter. Yeah ...I mean, things can certainly (and probably will actually...) break more in line with what folks want ...without the SSW - to which, D15 is too soon for down-well --> -AO response. Next August ... set coffee down some Saturday morning, crack open the forum, and there it is: a 20 post dialogue stream about how the " ... SSW roared in early January earlier this year" despite all truths and consequences. I sort of tried to allude to this in this thread's opening, re the stuff about how the SSW's effect may collocate in time with warm ENSO (if this sucker ever even gets around to it...) statistics for back ending winter. The two are likely to get confused if other factors change things prior to the SSW. Natural tendency for people to rush things ... particularly, to get through a frustrating pattern episode - to which ...who would argue? heh. But, we haven't seen the onset of the SE ridge associated with the negative PNA /MJO handshake - if that's not breaking down in its own rite. Whole 'nother headache: that could happen, we could miss out as warm enthusiasts just the same, do to the over-top high pressure routine. I was trying to be careful not to doom the rest of December but I'm sure that's the perception in the absence of champaign 30" deep. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Lol she could transition,no Fuk no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Fuk no. Just playing devils advocate only bc it seemed there was little wiggle room w position of alaska low but perhaps that is how it always is to a degree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 21, 2018 Author Share Posted December 21, 2018 Case in point ...there could be a icing event brewing out there between Xmas and NY's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 46 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Just playing devils advocate only bc it seemed there was little wiggle room w position of alaska low but perhaps that is how it always is to a degree Devils advocate? More like a wet fart in your bed while laying next to one of your milfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Yeah pickles-that low is exactly where you want it. Difference between good and bad isn’t as far as you think...lol. if it goes further west cutter risk is higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 All I want for Christmas is for all of those weeklies to verify with no suppression or 1 day sneaky cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 1 hour ago, dendrite said: week 3 & 4 torchy ==> Weeklies have little skill that far out. Toss. week 3 & 4 cold/snowy ==> Pop open the Cristal lol its that time of year. Good news is good news. Bad news needs to be turned into good news somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Euro weeklies have been doing pretty well recently. They predicted the relaxation/AK vortex in December from week 3/4. We were hoping they were wrong but the writing was already starting to be on the wall on the ensembles at D15. This is similar. The writing for week 3 is starting to show up at the end of the ensembles so there's some support there. Doesn't mean it can't change but you'd probably bet it that way. Typically when there's a big shift from week 3 to week 4 is when I'm a lot more skeptical. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Some big changes next week on the GFS. That s/w that causes the low to cut west, digs farther south is just seems a bit weaker. Thus, a more SWFE and cooler solution for now. To me, the massive ULL SW of Greenland almost forces this to not amplify. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Some big changes next week on the GFS. That s/w that causes the low to cut west, digs farther south is just seems a bit weaker. Thus, a more SWFE and cooler solution for now. To me, the massive ULL SW of Greenland almost forces this to not amplify. And the confluence to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: And the confluence to the north Inland we snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: And the confluence to the north NYC is going to be too far south for this. I'm not even sure if SNE will be far enough north. I see more of an ice/sleet situation than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: And the confluence to the north Changes were evident early on. On the 18z GFS, you can see the s/w kissing the CA coast causing the main s/w near Denver to start moving NE at hr 150. At hr 144 on the 00z GFS, these two systems are much farther apart. As a result, the first and parent s/w dives well south and is not allowed to amp up as much due to confluence. Because it can't amplify, it's taken to the grinder. Not sure if it is right or not. Hopefully it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Full blown SWFE on the 6z GFS next week. Euro has some CAD, but not like GFS. Hopefully that improves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 GFS finally caves on a bit of snow the 24th now showing it. That swfe is pretty snowy/icy around here next week on this gfs run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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