powderfreak Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: The Euro tends to overamp and overcut everything beyond day 5 ever since its upgrade a few years ago. Don’t forget the EPS majority members Just 4/5 days ago showed more or less a SER on 25-27 which now won’t come close to verifying Which would make sense and lean more towards the GFS solution, but yeah give it 6-12 hours for another version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Euro ensembles sending the PV into Hudson Bay by the end of the run. Def seems the beginnings of displacement are happening...the really huge effects are prob not felt until well into January. But the PAC is looking pretty strong already by New Years...even looks like Atlantic wants to play ball a little too. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Eps secondaries Meh. It's ok looking. It is pretty slow which is bad...speed that thing up a bit so it is timed well with the confluence in Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Balls and hammers dropping at the same damn time this NYE. Start to 2019 will be big. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 47 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: buy Buy Buy, base economy is rocking, end of year selloffs and short sellers. Buying the dips has worked last several years but the greater system is on Shaky ground. We are also below important support levels best to be defensive and see what unfolds short term. Hoping fed engineers a way to kick the can high clouds rolling in, big big rains on way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Balls and hammers dropping at the same damn time this NYE. Start to 2019 will be big. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 5 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: coldest Christmas day night ever, winds were sustained 30s and gust to 55 for a good 30 hrs, absolutely brutal And the remainder of the year was god-awful cold as well . Last year's cold spell was the only thing close . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, kdxken said: And the remainder of the year was god-awful cold as well . Last year's cold spell was the only thing close . Had to put the beer in the cooler to keep it from freezing that Christmas............... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: It’s getting interesting for first time in years....keep assets levitated or crisis and maybe a re-set Agreed. Glad to be positioned in cash/short here, even if I was a bit early. Potential for multi-year bust with no China to come to the rescue this time...Anyway, glad to see glimmers of hope continuing in the modeling. Things are certainly looking up on the winter front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 34 minutes ago, kdxken said: And the remainder of the year was god-awful cold as well . Last year's cold spell was the only thing close . Yeah that was brutal, drove down to the ocean and the steam off the water was nuts. I think my high was 6* 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 1983 Christmas was pretty impressive cold. Not quite same level as 1980 but single digit high temps. '83 actually has the record low max for the 25th because 1980 had cheap midnight highs around 10...but the daytime high was like 0F with epic biting wind, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 12z GFS FV3 has a more SWFE look to it. And Dear God...Santa brought us some new tools for Pivotal Weather. Awesome we can get so many soundings now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Meh. It's ok looking. It is pretty slow which is bad...speed that thing up a bit so it is timed well with the confluence in Quebec. Definitely baggy mean SLP, but the KFS definitely overestimated the secondary development. It looks like 20% of the EPS members actually have the lowest pressure on or off the coast (some don't even have an event in that window). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 12z GFS FV3 has a more SWFE look to it. And Dear God...Santa brought us some new tools for Pivotal Weather. Awesome we can get so many soundings now. I know right? No more having to rely solely on NCEP temp profiles. I saw this on TT too. Levi must be getting bored. Upper level Q-vector divergence, stream function, and irrotational wind. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: I know right? No more having to rely solely on NCEP temp profiles. I saw this on TT too. Levi must be getting bored. Upper level Q-vector divergence, stream function, and irrotational wind. lol LOL, yeah. Unfortunately not a lot of operational value there..but good weenie stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: LOL, yeah. Unfortunately not a lot of operational value there..but good weenie stuff. Irrotational is going to be my new crutch word in the AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Irrotational is going to be my new crutch word in the AFD. If you look at it hemispherically and want to see how things like tropical cyclones enhance the jet, it actually adds some value. Stuff like that is cool. I know a met at BOX who probably would love to use that word.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 20, 2018 Author Share Posted December 20, 2018 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro ensembles sending the PV into Hudson Bay by the end of the run. Def seems the beginnings of displacement are happening...the really huge effects are prob not felt until well into January. But the PAC is looking pretty strong already by New Years...even looks like Atlantic wants to play ball a little too. Heh... I'd be careful of that... It's getting improperly applied, the SSW ... Unless you mean for different reason- okay. But, one ... we're not even sure this is a propagating SSW ...vs just a typical high stratosphere static warm node. They tend to fire off and decay inside of days... most of which don't down-well. This one? It may be propagating, but ...I don't know if the models are actually showing that at this time. In fact, my experience is that these models rarely do; it may be something that's more observed if/when that happens. two. .. which is critical in the -AO forcing statistics... finally three ..., there really is at minimum at two to three week lag correlation... Putting all those three SSW model aspects together, I don't (personally) see so how anything any model is doing inside of 10 days really is related to that. What I like is that the teleconnectors, at least the GEF ones, are unstable. Because the look three days ago was so f'ing ludicrously bad that anything different simply has to be better ha 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Heh... I'd be careful of that... It's getting improperly applied, the SSW ... Unless you mean for different reason- okay. But, one ... we're not even sure this is a propagating SSW ...vs just a typical high stratosphere static warm node. They tend to fire off and decay inside of days... most of which don't down-well. This one? It may be propagating, but ...I don't know if the models are actually showing that at this time. In fact, my experience is that these models rarely do; it may be something that's more observed if/when that happens. two. .. which is critical in the -AO forcing statistics... finally three ..., there really is at minimum at two to three week lag correlation... Putting all those three SSW model aspects together, I don't (personally) see so how anything any model is doing inside of 10 days really is related to that. What I like is that the teleconnectors, at least the GEF ones, are unstable. Because the look three days ago was so f'ing ludicrously bad that anything different simply has to be better ha You might be right..though this was actually more like Jan 4-5th...about D15. Maybe it's totally unrelated...because you're right that the tropospheric lag would def be more toward mid january. Though I'm not totally well-versed in this enough to say that if we are getting something historical that we wouldn't see the response be a little faster. Maybe that doesn't matter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Holy weeklies 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Holy weeklies Do tell! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 10 minutes ago, weathafella said: Do tell! Jan 7-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Jan 14-21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Just now, NorEastermass128 said: Jan 7-14 Thank you! How do the rest look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Let’s hope they’re right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Ran out of upload memory, but Jan 21-28 and Jan 28-Feb 4 are just as tasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Mid atl had them up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Thank you! How do the rest look? See them here in the mid Atlantic forum. Wicked! https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51821-decemberjanuary-mediumlong-range-discussion/?page=19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Later weeks actually look even better. January could be alot of fun and little sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: Later weeks actually look even better. January could be slot of fun and little sleep. well we should all be well rested and ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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