psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 This might be the most I've ever seen on a euro weekly snow mean. It's usually very close to climo. Getting it to be almost double climo for the D.C. area for the 6 week period is pretty significant. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This might be the most I've ever seen on a work weekly snow mean. It's usually very close to climo. Getting it to be almost double climo for the D.C. area for the 6 week period is pretty significant. Another positive sign. Good vibes this week so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: This might be the most I've ever seen on a work weekly snow mean. It's usually very close to climo. Getting it to be almost double climo for the D.C. area for the 6 week period is pretty significant. Move that south a bit and you get forum wide approval. This makes the next week even more tollerable for many as pattern shift will be underway and tracking mode will likely start to show threats inside 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 24 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Move that south a bit and you get forum wide approval. This makes the next week even more tollerable for many as pattern shift will be underway and tracking mode will likely start to show threats inside 240. Ensembles have been doing great this year. The quick start was well modeled in Nov. Early Dec storm window was showing up 2 weeks in advance. The current Pac puking was locked in well in advance too. I have no reason to doubt the flip to a great winter pattern with blocking is just around the corner. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 23 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Move that south a bit and you get forum wide approval. This makes the next week even more tollerable for many as pattern shift will be underway and tracking mode will likely start to show threats inside 240. Amounts seem to taper along with averages across the area though. So I am near the 12" line but my climo for the next 6 weeks is probably about 10". D.C. is about 10" but climo is about 6" for that period. Richmond is 6" but climo is probably about 4. So the whole area is above average snowfall for the period on the mean snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 @Ji check out the cmc. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @Ji check out the cmc. Lol That is lulz... classic CAD and cold/dry to wet and warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Welp, 00z GFS has a rainstorm for the new year... it's over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 That is lulz... classic CAD and cold/dry to wet and warmSay what? 240 is cold enough for heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 10 minutes ago, Ji said: 37 minutes ago, yoda said: That is lulz... classic CAD and cold/dry to wet and warm Say what? 240 is cold enough for heavy snow Talking about the 27th storm And 240 is a change to rain for DCA looking at 850s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Talking about the 27th stormNo the new years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Talking about the 27th storm No the new years 850s suggest rain nearby and mid 30s temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 850s suggest rain nearby and mid 30s tempsBob wouldn't tag me so he could show me a cmc rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 1 hour ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, yoda said: 850s suggest rain nearby and mid 30s temps Bob wouldn't tag me so he could show me a cmc rainstorm A track like that in late Dec and it's snow. Slp passes south and east of us. Hour 246 has 850s crashing down and heavy snow as slp tracks off obx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 We saw a very slight improvement with the snowfall means for north and west of the cities on the overnight run of the EPS. Over half the members (60% or so) show measurable within the cities at this point with quite a few showing good to very good solutions. Now snowfall means aside. I am really starting to get very interested with the look the EPS is now throwing out in the extended. And the setup is beginning to break the 10 day fantasy mark. Below we have the day 10 500s. What we are seeing is blocking over Greenland (models are getting more aggressive with this feature) with lower heights in the 50/50 region getting trapped underneath for an extended period of time. Now to the south we are seeing SE ridging that is bumping northward but is meeting resistance from the NS. Where these two are battling it out we are seeing a boundary setup between the warm and cold air. To give you reference at this point in time we are seeing the 850's settling in N VA/S MD. In the southwest we see troughing in the SS that is helping to bump up the SE ridging. Undercutting this trough we are seeing a strong moisture laden sub tropical jet from Hawaii running through the south and up off the east coast. Now factor in we have both an active NS and SS this look has big storm potential. And this general look, with some variations, holds for a 3 day window as the 50/50 is trapped and blocks the pattern up. Now even as the 50/50 ejects out we also have will have an opening for a day or two as the pattern relaxes. So basically we are probably looking at a 5 day window at least as shown by the EPS at this time. Now here we see the surface at that time. Notice the trapped 50/50 and the High to the east that gets trapped for a period of time as well because of the 50/50. This High is pushing back against the SE ridging, setting up the boundary through our general region. We are also seeing low pressures in SE and the gulf. This is not a bad look whatsoever. If the EPS is generally right with the overall look, we are talking 10+ days after all, I would like our chances to see at least a little bit of measurable through the region. As far as how much there are just too many variables at this time to even hazard a guess. All I know is that this look in my mind has big storm potential but it also has a lot of heartache potential as well. Will really come down to where the boundary sets up at any given time as well as the possible interaction between the NS and SS and the evolution of any possible systems themselves. eta: Thought I would add, I would not rule out 2 or 3 systems possibly impacting the region through this period. The pattern is very active through this time period. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 DT ALEET 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 If anything the 6z gfs is wet in the extended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: If anything the 6z gfs is wet in the extended 06z GEFS has close to the same setup as the EPS around day 10 but it breaks down the 50/50 quicker allowing the pattern to be more progressive. If we see the GEFS trapping that 50/50 longer then I think we would have good agreement between the two. Comes down to which model is more right on handling that. Still think we would have a shot or two with the GEFS regardless, temps allowing of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 06Z GEFS saw a very good bump up on it's snowfall means. Now showing 3 1/2 to 4 inches through the cities and 5 1/2 in the farther NW suburbs. Very nice bump up day 10 - 11 showing up as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Fv3 tries to do a cad setup Thursday and gives places some ice . Has a stronger high which is also slower to move out then other guidance . Sure doesn't like the new years time frame. Cutter to Chicago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Only out to day 11 on Wxbell but like the increase so far I have all 16 days with the means, individual members aren't complete yet. eta: that is on wxbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 6z gefs blocking is stout at end of the run Best looking GEFS h5 look I have seen to this point. Things are moving along nicely. Recent runs of the CFS weeklies also have some super impressive blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 12 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 6z gefs blocking is stout at end of the run GEFS getting more aggressive with the blocking. Not a big fan of how it is handling the pv though. Shifting and consolidating it on the other side of the globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: GEFS getting more aggressive with the blocking. Not a big fan of how it is handling the pv though. Shifting and consolidating it on the other side of the globe. If we do get a blocking regime (starting to look very likely) I'm not that worried about that. It would be a bigger problem in December or march but in January if you put high pressures across Canada and a general flow into the eastern United States out of the north and we can create enough cold over the Conus to get it done. Won't be arctic or anything but cold enough to snow with a favorable storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: If we do get a blocking regime (starting to look very likely) I'm not that worried about that. It would be a bigger problem in December or march but in January if you put high pressures across Canada and a general flow into the eastern United States out of the north and we can create enough cold over the Conus to get it done. Won't be arctic or anything but cold enough to snow with a favorable storm track. If the EPO/PNA ridge holds up. Otherwise we are looking at a flood of PAC air over running the CONUS if that breaks down. But that is beginning to look like a somewhat stable feature in the long run so maybe I am just borrowing trouble. Any brief relax though... Would much prefer to see a lobe planted on our side of the globe in north/central Canada. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Meteograms show models picking up on increased snowfall potential from NYE and beyond. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Gefs likes the threat after New Years better actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: 6z gefs blocking is stout at end of the run The 'like' emoji/tag is nice for posts but we need a 'love' one added. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: GEFS getting more aggressive with the blocking. Not a big fan of how it is handling the pv though. Shifting and consolidating it on the other side of the globe. It will be on our side....at least a piece of it by the 3rd week of January if not before then. Trust the weeklies. This reload of the pattern thru that time has been consistently modeled. Until it fails completely as lead times shrink I have no reason to doubt where we are headed. Becoming more optimistic daily. And like both u and psu noted, we can still cash in during this time of climo without the PV parked to our North as long as we have the PAC help. We are entering that time of climo where we dont necessarily require absolute perfection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Just a couple observations... 1. Looks like areas north and west of the cities still have the possibility to get some mix/mood flakes/dusting Monday night(mason/dixon line). Wouldn't surprise me. 2. All of a sudden next Thursday/Friday looks like it could be a mixed bag (FV3) for areas north and west to start. 3. NYE still looks like it could go either way. GGEM looked pretty good last night. My point is simply this...for a total "crap pattern" we've got a couple things to at least keep an eye on over the next 10 days before the pattern really starts to get interesting. For me, half the fun is tracking, so I'm perfectly fine having a couple things to keep an eye on during what was supposed to be a shut out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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