HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 46 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Was sorta surprised at the 1980s...front loaded? Yeah, I remember the 80's as horrific in E MA. Especially 86-92 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Isotherm " The putative "cutter" on the 18z GEFS for the 27th-28th now cannot achieve > 0c 850mb temperatures north of NYC [energy transfer beginning to be detected]. No changes from me - 23rd onward for sufficient cold and possible threats. Models adjusting precisely as anticipated." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: They had some cold Decembers that kept small snowpack around even though they weren't very prolific...years like 1985, 1980, 1989, etc. In ORH, a lot of those years would have like 2" OTG. I seem to remember ‘81-‘82 being good up here. Snow events seemingly 2-3 times per week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 46 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Rgem is a big flooder. Ugh. Dude, the PWATs on these models are out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 25 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Of course we jack rain. Been that way since July. Can we pull 4" QPF next month with a 1040 high over Caribou? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, mreaves said: I seem to remember ‘81-‘82 being good up here. Snow events seemingly 2-3 times per week. '81-'82 was a very good winter. Big December too right into Boston and it lasted into April with the '82 blizzard...but that was one of the few good winters of the decade. '83-'84 was good and so was '86-'87. The rest were pretty pathetic. I guess '87-'88 was decent too but kind of shut down a bit early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 32 minutes ago, Hoth said: Can we pull 4" QPF next month with a 1040 high over Caribou? That’s the plan. I have the blueprint taped to the bedroom ceiling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That’s the plan. I have the blueprint taped to the bedroom ceiling. On the mirror? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 nam is the most convective with precip and thus less qpf. Must be running off one of MPM’s IP addresses. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: On the mirror? Mirror mirror on the ceiling, tell me who’s weenie she’s really feeling...? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: nam is the most convective with precip and thus less qpf. Must be running off one of MPM’s IP addresses. Yup, Only 2" here now instead of 2.5"....................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Of course we jack rain. Been that way since July. If I saw 3-5 inches being forecasted near Christmas, I would have not guessed it would be rain, yuck...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Deluge 18 Z Euro Ho Lee Fuk, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: '81-'82 was a very good winter. Big December too right into Boston and it lasted into April with the '82 blizzard...but that was one of the few good winters of the decade. '83-'84 was good and so was '86-'87. The rest were pretty pathetic. I guess '87-'88 was decent too but kind of shut down a bit early. I loved the Jan 15th 83 18 plus,the Feb 83 16 plus blizzard followed up by a 10 inch a week later, 3weeks of winter that was it but pretty neat and memorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Don't like the look of the SSW event, looks to displace the PV into Europe That's not going to be an issue given it'll be January. It also splits into three lobes so I don't think the cold air will bunch up in one spot so easily. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 39 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: That's not going to be an issue given it'll be January. It also splits into three lobes so I don't think the cold air will bunch up in one spot so easily. On the EPS, a lobe of this goes into Hudson Bay. That's good for us. Also, I should point out that because of a the air density boundary between the troposphere and stratosphere, I wouldn't count on exact PV placement based on the stratospheric PV location...but it may serve as a proxy I suppose. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Isotherm " The putative "cutter" on the 18z GEFS for the 27th-28th now cannot achieve > 0c 850mb temperatures north of NYC [energy transfer beginning to be detected]. No changes from me - 23rd onward for sufficient cold and possible threats. Models adjusting precisely as anticipated." I wouldn't get so confident on no cutter or warm system..esp NYC on south. While we may see a few threats, a legit wintry look probably won't occur for your area until after the New Year. Of course how one views a wintry pattern may be subjective...but it's rather so-so for NYC for a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 48 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: That's not going to be an issue given it'll be January. It also splits into three lobes so I don't think the cold air will bunch up in one spot so easily. Very much doubt it gets split in three, I favor the PV in Europe. A SSW event is very risky, if it does settle in Europe don't expect much winter weather in the East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I wouldn't get so confident on no cutter or warm system..esp NYC on south. While we may see a few threats, a legit wintry look probably won't occur for your area until after the New Year. Of course how one views a wintry pattern may be subjective...but it's rather so-so for NYC for a little while. Just to clarify, in case my statement is misconstrued - I'm not guaranteeing that next week's event will be conducive for NYC, simply elucidating the significance of the flux which has been ongoing w/ respect to the EPO and NAO domain corrections as a function of the forcings noted. I'm more confident that the 27/28 could become an energy transfer w/ resultant favorability for New England, lower probability for NYC but it cannot be ruled out either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Just now, Isotherm said: Just to clarify, in case my statement is misconstrued - I'm not guaranteeing that next week's event will be conducive for NYC, simply elucidating the significance of the flux which has been ongoing w/ respect to the EPO and NAO domain corrections as a function of the forcings noted. I'm more confident that the 27/28 could become an energy transfer w/ resultant favorability for New England, lower probability for NYC but it cannot be ruled out either. Yeah it's possible it could be more CAD for interior NE. I'm still waiting on the standing wave near 135E to slowly shuffle east and get the EPAC into a more formidable shape for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Very much doubt it gets split in three, I favor the PV in Europe. A SSW event is very risky, if it does settle in Europe don't expect much winter weather in the East SSWs as a whole make the entire hemisphere hostile to any sort of extraordinarily mild weather. In general the AO is going negative 98 out of 100 times. The only way it can really do nothing to help is if you have an awful Pacific which it doesn’t look like we will have based on most of the longer range ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah it's possible it could be more CAD for interior NE. I'm still waiting on the standing wave near 135E to slowly shuffle east and get the EPAC into a more formidable shape for us. Yes, the Nino-esque structure will resume fairly expeditiously in my opinion near the end of December with phase 5 GWO resumption, and enhanced walker cell forcing in the CPac. as the MJO signal begins to dampen and propagate through the CPAC at z200 as well. This should ignite a more classic PNA approaching the 30th/31st. It will be "Gradient" / countervailing -NAO until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I’m pretty sure the Feb 83 blizzard was PD1..right? if so, then January 15, to PD1, and then the one 10 incher that followed a week later, is more like 4-5 weeks of winter not 3 weeks?? No? I think PD1 was in ‘79 from my distant memory. It shut down DC, fringed NYC and gave flurries here on the Soouth Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 I think 83 was the Megalopolis storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, Isotherm said: Yes, the Nino-esque structure will resume fairly expeditiously in my opinion near the end of December with phase 5 GWO resumption, and enhanced walker cell forcing in the CPac. as the MJO signal begins to dampen and propagate through the CPAC at z200 as well. This should ignite a more classic PNA approaching the 30th/31st. It will be "Gradient" / countervailing -NAO until then. Yep. Hopefully we can snag an event or two prior. I could see the 27-28 trend flatter and/or south..but I'm expecting something non-wintry for my area anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 14 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Very much doubt it gets split in three, I favor the PV in Europe. A SSW event is very risky, if it does settle in Europe don't expect much winter weather in the East I think you’re fearing what happened in 2011-12 when the split sent it to Europe. Don’t forget we had the black hole of death in AK that year. The Queen of Sheba wasn’t gonna make it wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Just now, WinterWolf said: No I’m not thinking so with PD1...I could have sworn it was 83...but perhaps I’m wrong too?? 79 was PD1. It mostly missed everyone north of central NJ. I think JFK had 6 inches and LaGuardia had 1 or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: No I’m not thinking so with PD1...I could have sworn it was 83...but perhaps I’m wrong too?? 1979 for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: 1979 for sure. Yep. I thought so. That was a heartbreaker here. The Megalopolis storm on the other hand was forecast to go out to sea after hitting the MA and eventually made its way up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: 79 was PD1. It mostly missed everyone north of central NJ. I think JFK had 6 inches and LaGuardia had 1 or 2 Just now, weathafella said: 1979 for sure. Ok then lol...I stand corrected. Thanks for chiming in. Then the 83 storm I’m thinking of was another one..which hit SNE hard..and I was always thinking that was PD 1. You learn something new everyday!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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