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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said:

Its letting that northern s/w drop into the southern wave. If that trend continues it should amp up more and climb the coast with more cold air pouring into the western part of the board.

Haha good minds think alike! Posted simultaneously

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Weathernerds.org has a better snowfall map than TT IMO. It still hammers the NW Piedmont, Foothills, and Mountains.  Some 30-36" totals in the mountains. Crazy. The Triad areas transition to rain but not before 1.75 if QPF as all snow falls. Damage done.

image.thumb.png.e8e21318d6eabdc0cb81b431337a4b98.png

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2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

There's probably already half a foot of snow on the ground, at least, before this considers changing over IMBY. 

yea thru 126 you're soundings look all snow pretty comfortably.

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3 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

absolutely massive warm nose at 126 for kclt.  

It's kind of weird, the system is so slow moving that it is thumping heavy front end gulf precip into the cold-ish air....heavy rising motion on the NW side of the Miller A...and by the time the 850 low approaches and it warms, it has snowed a lot

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Just now, griteater said:

It's kind of weird, the system is so slow moving that it is thumping heavy front end gulf precip into the cold-ish air....heavy rising motion on the NW side of the Miller A...and by the time the 850 low approaches and it warms, it has snowed a lot

at 120 with good precip our sounding is razor thin, maybe all snow but likely some sleet mixing. but if we are talking razor thin margins this far out i know which way it will likely trend.

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3 minutes ago, Wow said:

That's a lot of water

LjKOTsf.png

A big point for discussion here is that much of this water falls between 12Z Saturday and 12Z Sunday.  Some places will see 2 inches of liquid in just 24 hours.  Some of that will fall as ice/snow.  Yowza.

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Just now, FallsLake said:

For RDU and charlotte folks, the 12z GFS was definitely a better run. It shifted the cold slightly to the SE. We need all the slight shifts SE we can get. 

I think this run was really good for those of us either on the N or NW sides. There's 18" totals just north of town here near Bahama.

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4 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

You can see it here on ewall.

It's hard to beat the ewall 4 panel...I wish other vendors would go to that with the Euro etc.

The 12z UKMet goes big with the phase but still keeps the storm to the south, moving off Jacksonville roughly...similar to GFS really...it's a late, but big phase

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1 minute ago, griteater said:

It's hard to beat the ewall 4 panel...I wish other vendors would go to that with the Euro etc.

The 12z UKMet goes big with the phase but still keeps the storm to the south, moving off Jacksonville roughly...similar to GFS really...it's a late, but big phase

J'ville, NC or J'ville FL?

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This is incredible, just the shear amount of QPF makes the Wintry part of this storm system very unique for this area.  

image.thumb.png.547c02f49f5db24489f7ed4d12ed299a.png

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5 minutes ago, griteater said:

It's hard to beat the ewall 4 panel...I wish other vendors would go to that with the Euro etc.

The 12z UKMet goes big with the phase but still keeps the storm to the south, moving off Jacksonville roughly...similar to GFS really...it's a late, but big phase

Ewall is the best!

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Looks like maybe GFS is trying to catch up on stronger CAD. Couple runs in a row now where temps have gotten just a bit colder each time. 

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2 minutes ago, griteater said:

FL...it may come off a little north of there, but don't have the specifics with the early maps

Hmm, would be interested in seeing the snow totals for that assuming that the cold is there. I know for my self and others in N GA and the upstate a track through northern Florida is what we typically want.

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4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Folks, call me out if I'm wrong,  but I dont see that precip changing to rain towards the end, especially NW sections... that's where the GFS under does the CAD

I agree, it's rare that we (triad) transition to rain, it's usually too sleet/freezing rain in the triad and NW of there.  I'm sure it's happened a transition to rain, but I would expect that would be the very tail end of the storm as modeled.

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2 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Looks like maybe GFS is trying to catch up on stronger CAD. Couple runs in a row now where temps have gotten just a bit colder each time. 

I was thinking the same thing.  Looking at the high placement and strength (compared to the previous run) along with the more inland track of the low I would’ve expected lower snow totals in the central part of NC.  

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14 minutes ago, griteater said:

It's kind of weird, the system is so slow moving that it is thumping heavy front end gulf precip into the cold-ish air....heavy rising motion on the NW side of the Miller A...and by the time the 850 low approaches and it warms, it has snowed a lot

Grit, 

It looks like CLT is in the shaft zone again, but hoping we can at least get some sizeable accumulations before being warm nosed???

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20 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Its letting that northern s/w drop into the southern wave. If that trend continues it should amp up more and climb the coast with more cold air pouring into the western part of the board.

Hard to believe that ever since this storm showed up on the models that Cherokee and Graham Counties has been shown to get nothing. 

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2 minutes ago, snowbird1230 said:

Hard to believe that ever since this storm showed up on the models that Cherokee and Graham Counties has been shown to get nothing. 

That's pretty typical with CAD storms. The higher mountains simply block the cold air from reaching that far SW corner of NC.

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