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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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Just now, Queencitywx said:

FV3 Just started coming in. It should be done by time Army/Navy kicks off this weekend 

Being on a phone and trying to view it on the NCEP page is next to impossible but to my naked eye the 0z run looks fairly similar to 18z. Don’t quote me though.

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9 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

I really really hope this storm is as great as many models show, but a word of caution, especially for those around 85 in NC.  Enjoy the model runs but don’t live and die by them.  Read the thread below and temper expectations.  Better to be pleasantly surprised if the totals are close.  

The pic and thread are from the Jan 17 storm that was a big bust.  Not saying these storms are the same, just that the cutoff line and WAA are notoriously hard for models to get right.  Union county was looking great the morning before the storm and we got shafted.  QPF was also way overdone by the models  

Its easy for most of us and myself to get wrapped up in these models but this is a tough area even for short range models to get right.

Hopefully this doesn’t repeat itself with this storm though!!

 

2D003D9A-B2D6-421A-978A-3E9DBD4EF375.png

Reading back on that...good Lord...absolutely terrifying. I think EVERYONE needs to go back and read that.

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3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Folks will hopefully have access to pics soon as I’m sorry I don’t but the FV3 is still Uber wet across the entire area. The cutoff up in central VA with the precip is just straight insane. 1-2” qpf totals across all of VA/NC/SC. 

I think everyone is shooting for Uber white.... kidding aside....Modeling has been rock steady showing a great system for you guys and the meso models are now showing colder thermals.  Y’all enjoy, but keep your eyes on the thermals up until the last moment.  It wouldn’t be the first time a rug was pulled in the last seconds.  Best of luck sent from the other side of the hill.

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11 minutes ago, Bamabuilder86 said:

How do y’all think I-40 will be on Monday in terms of travel? Obviously this could be a huge storm but how well is it usually handled? I need to be traveling west on I-40 Monday morning from black mountain 

Good chance i40 gets shut down at some point  atleast from Asheville to Statesville

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6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Not according to Farheelprogramner88! Everything is warmer

I only speak the truth though. GFS FV3 is warmer at 850 mb. Overall, low is further south, high is weaker, and temps aloft are warmer. Who is ready for some cold rain? Western NC still has a good chance for snow and I am rooting for them. 

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