Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, Queencitywx said: FV3 Just started coming in. It should be done by time Army/Navy kicks off this weekend Being on a phone and trying to view it on the NCEP page is next to impossible but to my naked eye the 0z run looks fairly similar to 18z. Don’t quote me though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Canadian went south, eh? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, GunBlade said: I really really hope this storm is as great as many models show, but a word of caution, especially for those around 85 in NC. Enjoy the model runs but don’t live and die by them. Read the thread below and temper expectations. Better to be pleasantly surprised if the totals are close. The pic and thread are from the Jan 17 storm that was a big bust. Not saying these storms are the same, just that the cutoff line and WAA are notoriously hard for models to get right. Union county was looking great the morning before the storm and we got shafted. QPF was also way overdone by the models Its easy for most of us and myself to get wrapped up in these models but this is a tough area even for short range models to get right. Hopefully this doesn’t repeat itself with this storm though!! Reading back on that...good Lord...absolutely terrifying. I think EVERYONE needs to go back and read that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Canadian went south, eh? No...but it finally got a clue on the cold/snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Brad P just released his preliminary map: https://imgur.com/a/IKEVzTq 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: FV3 Just started coming in. It should be done by time Army/Navy kicks off this weekend football is gonna be awesome to watch this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Folks will hopefully have access to pics soon as I’m sorry I don’t but the FV3 is still Uber wet across the entire area. The cutoff up in central VA with the precip is just straight insane. 1-2” qpf totals across all of VA/NC/SC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Canadian Kuchera: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Poimen said: No...but it finally got a clue on the cold/snow. 5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Canadian went south, eh? Goodness...Wilkes and Eastern Watagua get hammered...but I am still favoring the NAM here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Poimen said: Canadian Kuchera: Wilkesboro...winner winner chicken dinner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 6, 2018 Author Share Posted December 6, 2018 How did the 0z NAM look for SC? Just got off work so I haven't had the chance to look yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Wouldn’t mind seeing a Ukie image of someone has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said: How did the 0z NAM look for SC? Just got off work so I haven't had the chance to look yet. Frz rain at the end of the run from Atlanta to Columbia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Wilkesboro...winner winner chicken dinnerSkies have not healed enough from all the rain this year for WilkesboroDude to get that much snow, toss it! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, WeatherHawk said: Wilkesboro...winner winner chicken dinner Canadian is on an island of its own way up north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Folks will hopefully have access to pics soon as I’m sorry I don’t but the FV3 is still Uber wet across the entire area. The cutoff up in central VA with the precip is just straight insane. 1-2” qpf totals across all of VA/NC/SC. I think everyone is shooting for Uber white.... kidding aside....Modeling has been rock steady showing a great system for you guys and the meso models are now showing colder thermals. Y’all enjoy, but keep your eyes on the thermals up until the last moment. It wouldn’t be the first time a rug was pulled in the last seconds. Best of luck sent from the other side of the hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bamabuilder86 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 How do y’all think I-40 will be on Monday in terms of travel? Obviously this could be a huge storm but how well is it usually handled? I need to be traveling west on I-40 Monday morning from black mountain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Looking at the FV 3 on the NCEP site and it looks like another big hit for much of central/western NC well into Mon., too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 GFS FV3 is slightly warmer as well. 2 models are warmer. Was the NAM model warmer as well? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, AirNelson39 said: Skies have not healed enough from all the rain this year for WilkesboroDude to get that much snow, toss it! Agreed...it's been super juicy...but all things considered...it's gonna be some great totals up here and we had about 4 with today's thump of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 6, 2018 Author Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, griteater said: Frz rain at the end of the run from Atlanta to Columbia Really trending colder then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, bess said: Canadian is on an island of its own way up north.. Stick with the NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Crazy difference in dewpoints at 84 between the NAM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Really trending colder then Not according to Farheelprogramner88! Everything is warmer 2 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 11 minutes ago, Bamabuilder86 said: How do y’all think I-40 will be on Monday in terms of travel? Obviously this could be a huge storm but how well is it usually handled? I need to be traveling west on I-40 Monday morning from black mountain Good chance i40 gets shut down at some point atleast from Asheville to Statesville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Slight north trend with FV3 at 78 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Really trending colder then Wouldn't say that. It's just the first mid range model to come in range and it actually handles CAD well. The globals don't and may not until go time, if then. But for some reason Tarheelprogrammar88 is worried about them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 So is it warmer or colder? I’m sooo confused. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Not according to Farheelprogramner88! Everything is warmer I only speak the truth though. GFS FV3 is warmer at 850 mb. Overall, low is further south, high is weaker, and temps aloft are warmer. Who is ready for some cold rain? Western NC still has a good chance for snow and I am rooting for them. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Solid 40 mile shift N with r/s line, weaker high here. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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