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2018/19 Winter Banter and General Discussion - We winter of YORE


Baroclinic Zone
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31 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Back to All-Time snow depth levels after the 9.5" that landed with the squalls.

Today the Mansfield stake depth is at 93"... breaking the old record of 88" from 1969.

The snow has never been deeper than it is today for late-January in the past 65 years.

The 12-foot stake is in trouble this winter if this trend continues in February and March.  2001 they put an extension on it and we may be heading that way.

50914178_3036225713069561_17903402810657

51191907_3036225649736234_21499328960502

Wish I had gotten an epic pass this year, but I had already gotten my "Mission Affordable" Ragged pass (no blackout full season pass for less than 2 days at Stowe) when Vail took over Sunapee.  Almost tempting to head up even at day ticket prices.

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31 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Back to All-Time snow depth levels after the 9.5" that landed with the squalls.

Today the Mansfield stake depth is at 93"... breaking the old record of 88" from 1969.

The snow has never been deeper than it is today for late-January in the past 65 years.

The 12-foot stake is in trouble this winter if this trend continues in February and March.  2001 they put an extension on it and we may be heading that way.

50914178_3036225713069561_17903402810657

51191907_3036225649736234_21499328960502

Look at the 1983 record lowest snow depth.  That looks like reindeer sweater hanging conditions

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4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Anyone chasing in the tug?


  Heavy lake effect snow. Dangerously cold wind chills
  expected. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 4 feet in the
  most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.
  Wind chills as low as 30 below zero expected.

south towns gonna get it good?

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

south towns gonna get it good?

Looks like mainly a Metro Buffalo event, we've been in the transition zone this year. We should get hit pretty good but the lake is quickly freezing, so not sure how hard we get hit. Here is the map from KBUF. Looks like Philly and WxWatcher are chasing on the tug, we also have 2 posters from there in Redfield and Altmar. 

StormTotalSnow.png

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INL min temps records...
 

1/20 -42 in 1996 -41 in 2011 -38 in 1984
1/21 -46 in 2011 -41 in 1954 -40 in 1907
1/22 -38 in 1907 -37 in 1922 -37 in 1897
1/23 -43 in 1907 -38 in 1948 -37 in 2011
1/24 -40 in 1966 -37 in 1957 -36 in 2013+
1/25 -39 in 1996 -38 in 1997 -37 in 2019+
1/26 -42 in 1997 -41 in 1996 -40 in 1972
1/27 -46 in 2019 -36 in 1966 -36 in 1955+
1/28 -43 in 1966 -39 in 1951 -34 in 1965+
1/29 -41 in 1951 -38 in 1950 -37 in 1957+
1/30 -40 in 1950 -40 in 1909 -39 in 1918
1/31 -35 in 1996 -35 in 1985 -35 in 1982+
2/1 -43 in 1996 -40 in 1985 -38 in 1951
2/2 -45 in 1996 -39 in 2013 -38 in 1976
2/3 -40 in 1982 -38 in 1989 -37 in 1970
2/4 -41 in 1907 -37 in 1923 -35 in 1996
2/5 -40 in 1907 -36 in 1982 -32 in 2007
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46 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

850 temps are all well and good (and those are truly impressive) but people live at the surface.  Are records expected to be set where the people are?   

Even if there are no records those temps and windchills are sick

Dave,   I believe the coldest "maximum" temperature at Chicago O'hare is -11F.  Tomorrow should break that.   Quite a day for metro Chicago with highs around -15F and lows -25F or a bit lower.  

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I watched the evening news, ABC and NBC.   Showing the maps and talking about the temperatures was very confusing.  Real feel temps, wind chill temps and actual temps.  The maps were all over the place and half the time the anchors and their weather people were too.    I understand the difference but not sure the average person does.   Maybe it doesn't make a difference??

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45 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Dave,   I believe the coldest "maximum" temperature at Chicago O'hare is -11F.  Tomorrow should break that.   Quite a day for metro Chicago with highs around -15F and lows -25F or a bit lower.  

-5F right now. They have 3.5hrs to drop 7F. Gonna be tough to avoid the midnight high.

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3 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

850 temps are all well and good (and those are truly impressive) but people live at the surface.  Are records expected to be set where the people are?   

Even if there are no records those temps and windchills are sick

That 850 mb map that Ginx posted is pretty much record territory for Indiana.  We are at the mercy of RAOBs being taken only twice a day, so stuff can slip through the cracks so to speak (and there are no RAOB locations in IN) but looking at 3-6 hour reanalysis images of past arctic outbreaks... yeah, -37 basically never happens that far south.  

Low level lapse rates are pretty steep when those 850 mb temps occur... so while it's very cold at the surface, maybe not as cold as you would think.  Tomorrow night is a better radiational cooling setup, but there is a lack of snowcover with southward extent in IN.  The overlap of favorable sfc ridge position and deep snowcover is farther northwest... IA/WI/northern IL and maybe northwest IN.  Assuming clouds aren't an issue and winds go calm (or nearly calm), there could be some pretty nutty readings in that zone.

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