Nov 15/16 regionwide event

[CT Rain]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Cirrus in the house so those insane lows may not happen. Esp SNE.

NAM and GFS MOS have 11 at BDL tonight!

[dryslot]

15 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

With respect to the antecdent airmass, I'm loving my forecasted 4* low tonight.  lol

Tonight

Clear, with a low around 4. Blustery, with a northwest wind 10 to 20 mph.

Going to be the first night the duramax gets plugged in, Those winds are going to have to fall off to get down to those single digits, Still blustery here.

[ineedsnow]

RGEM jackpots here for the second run in a row.. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

What a backside banger on gfs, kneeling now.

[wxsniss]

26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Still out of control on the snow on 18z RGEM

 

 

That's really impressive, and still hard to buy verbatim. NWS certainly is not... yet... despite the supporting consensus NAM + Euro + RGEM within 36-48 hours

And a reminder to those not familiar, this map above does not include ice. That map would be warning for most of SNE.

0z-4z looking solid for SNE... 4z-5z-6z looks close especially within few miles of coast, but nice to see the razor margin we had last night hold or even widen as we get closer.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Welp, snow blower and genny tested and ready.   This should be a decent kick off to winter season for the RT 2 corridor folk.  

I'm thinking 3-4" Greenfield,  maybe a little more in the hills but probably pretty uniform with this type of event.

[ineedsnow]

Snowblower  fired right up. WE READY!

[CoastalWx]

Hi res Herpes went wild too.

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hi res Herpes went wild too.

How about the WSI Chocolate Thunder or whatever it is called?

[Colonel Badger]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

How about the WSI Chocolate Thunder or whatever it is called?

Love it. We should totally call it that. 

[moneypitmike]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hi res Herpes went wild too.

 

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

How about the WSI Chocolate Thunder or whatever it is called?

What the hell are you guys referring to?

19 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Going to be the first night the duramax gets plugged in, Those winds are going to have to fall off to get down to those single digits, Still blustery here.

They're progged to.

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hi res Herpes went wild too.

On crack

[Colonel Badger]

I think it’s called the IBM Chocolate Thunder now. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

 

What the hell are you guys referring to?

They're progged to.

HRDPS.   It is a weenie model for output. Not sure if it is useful. On TT

[Greg]

That CMC model is rather interesting.  It usually runs a tad warm. But showing what it does right now makes you sort of wonder if this low is really strictly offshore and keeping most of the columns cold while only at the tail end of the storm with only very light prcip left do you get snizzle. Very interesting solution.

[ORH_wxman]

26 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

 

That's really impressive, and still hard to buy verbatim. NWS certainly is not... yet... despite the supporting consensus NAM + Euro + RGEM within 36-48 hours

And a reminder to those not familiar, this map above does not include ice. That map would be warning for most of SNE.

0z-4z looking solid for SNE... 4z-5z-6z looks close especially within few miles of coast, but nice to see the razor margin we had last night hold or even widen as we get closer.

I'm getting some 12/16/07 vibe on this with the high position and very intense omega...there's obviously some differences....the high is just a hair east of where the 07 version was and the low level cold isn't quite as intense but on the flip side the midlevel jet isn't as strong. 

Still, it's a similar feel where the marginal thump solutions were holding firm or even slightly ticking colder until game time and it's tied to that fresh Arctic high in Maine. I'll feel more confident about warning snow possibilities if we can get through the 00z runs without any major changes. 

[CT Rain]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm getting some 12/16/07 vibe on this with the high position and very intense omega...there's obviously some differences....the high is just a hair east of where the 07 version was and the low level cold isn't quite as intense but on the flip side the midlevel jet isn't as strong. 

Still, it's a similar feel where the marginal thump solutions were holding firm or even slightly ticking colder until game time and it's tied to that fresh Arctic high in Maine. I'll feel more confident about warning snow possibilities if we can get through the 00z runs without any major changes. 

I'm surprise people are so conservative here in CT. Obviously no BL issues and mid levels are looking colder. 

[Cold Miser]

Ryan with the boldest call out of all the mets in CT.

In the gym with at least 3 CT forecasts on TV within the last hour.

[HoarfrostHubb]

12/16/07 would be sweet

MASSACHUSETTS...
SAVOY                                 13.3
SPECULATOR                            12.0
WELLS                                 12.0
ASHFIELD                              11.7
SAVOY                                 11.5
GOSHEN                                11.0
DRACUT                                11.0
LOWELL                                11.0
BOSTON - LOGAN                         7.6 
TAUNTON - NWS                          6.1

[TalcottWx]

1-3" seems like a fair call at Logan. Will likely revise after overnight. I've upped it from slush.

[powderfreak]

BTV's forecast... I have no issue with this, seems like a safe play. 

The wildcard up here will continue to be if and where that mid-level band forms, that could bump some spots up north of 8" if some fronto band gets cranking but I like a general 4-7" type snowfall here.

[moneypitmike]

Channel 6 out of Portland is a little more tepid than NWS, but he's hedging that he may need to raise it.

They also pointed out that if the 10* he's forecasting for Portland, it will be the earliest PWM has hit 10 or below since 1874.

[TalcottWx]

I know I mentioned IP worries or CT, make no mistake, there will be a portion of CT that does well. But looking at that warm tongue, makes you think SE MA might be a preferable location. Like a Taunton, Foxboro, Etc.

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Cirrus in the house so those insane lows may not happen. Esp SNE.

Already 18° here with wind. Quite the smack in the face from dews a couple weeks ago.

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Already 18° here with wind. Quite the smack in the face from dews a couple weeks ago.

23F here.  Brisk 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

24 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

I know I mentioned IP worries or CT, make no mistake, there will be a portion of CT that does well. But looking at that warm tongue, makes you think SE MA might be a preferable location. Like a Taunton, Foxboro, Etc.

I’m getting a bit more bullish for this area.. some models printing out close to half a foot. Well see tomorrow.

[wxsniss]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm getting some 12/16/07 vibe on this with the high position and very intense omega...there's obviously some differences....the high is just a hair east of where the 07 version was and the low level cold isn't quite as intense but on the flip side the midlevel jet isn't as strong. 

Still, it's a similar feel where the marginal thump solutions were holding firm or even slightly ticking colder until game time and it's tied to that fresh Arctic high in Maine. I'll feel more confident about warning snow possibilities if we can get through the 00z runs without any major changes. 

I had to go back and look up the synoptics... you're right 12/16/07 had a slightly more wedged in high over Maine, but not different by much.

I honestly think we here / NWS etc are hesitant to believe the bullish guidance in part because we're looking at the calendar. And GFS is consistently meh'ing this.

Will be a fun 0z suite tonight. Meanwhile, the 17z run of the Euro looks steady.

[weathafella]

The main thing 2007 had was a month of climo.  Factoring that I’m the antecedent is close.

[powderfreak]

Just now, wxsniss said:

I had to go back and look up the synoptics... you're right 12/16/07 had a slightly more wedged in high over Maine, but not different by much.

I honestly think we here / NWS etc are hesitant to believe the bullish guidance in part because we're looking at the calendar. And GFS is consistently meh'ing this.

Will be a fun 0z suite tonight. Meanwhile, the 17z run of the Euro looks steady.

The mid-level warmth I think gets everyone gun shy too.  We've all seen too many events where it starts sleeting before you think it should... sort of in my head I feel like there are more SWFE's that have flipped to sleet earlier rather than later... but we all remember the events where the mid-level warmth was held off and got more snow than expected.  Its a tough balance to figure out where on the SWFE spectrum we fall on for this event.

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The main thing 2007 had was a month of climo.  Factoring that I’m the antecedent is close.

Today was like mid to late January climo stuff up here.  No worries at all about the calendar except those of you near that big pond of water. 

The limiting factor for the vast majority of the interested posters here will be the change to sleet or not-snow from mid-level warmth.  That'll come in before the surface warmth.