RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 15, 2018 Author Share Posted November 15, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: I’m not talking about that. Pattern looks great. But take it easy James. We all know you get excited. He’s had his ideal summer of dews, monsoons, and spinners. Now winter finally starts in November. Perfect combo. He should be excited. This may never happen again in his lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, wxsniss said: For Boston metro, Box AFD putting lots of attention to a coastal front (in addition to the incoming warmth aloft we've extensively discussed)... the meso models variably hint at it encroaching 4z-5z before the warmth aloft arrives... another big variable adding uncertainty... could impact whether Boston metro sees 1-2" vs. 2-4". And as already discussed, this definitely could be a Logan 1" slop / western burbs 2-4" deal. In any case, NNE vs. E surface winds will also have to be watched as this unfolds. The surface high will help at least for the first few hours. I’m feeling somewhat ok where I live with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 23 minutes ago, wxsniss said: For Boston metro, Box AFD putting lots of attention to a coastal front (in addition to the incoming warmth aloft we've extensively discussed)... the meso models variably hint at it encroaching 4z-5z before the warmth aloft arrives... another big variable adding uncertainty... could impact whether Boston metro sees 1-2" vs. 2-4". And as already discussed, this definitely could be a Logan 1" slop / western burbs 2-4" deal. In any case, NNE vs. E surface winds will also have to be watched as this unfolds. The surface high will help at least for the first few hours. Actually Harvey was saying earlier that if the cold hangs on long enough he could see about 1-2" around Logan International right on the water and the immediate western urban centers getting 2-4"; 4" of course being as close as extreme western Cambridge. We'll see. Really hope the high remains stubborn to move fast and the primary low goes a couple of tics futher south. That would really help keep the mid-level cold in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: He’s had his ideal summer of dews, monsoons, and spinners. Now winter finally starts in November. Perfect combo. He should be excited. This may never happen again in his lifetime. Weren’t you just saying that Winter wasn’t starting until mid to late January last week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 I’m expecting nothing but rain here and lots of pictures from you lucky inlanders Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 High end rollers need to keep expectations in check, there is a 3-4 hour window to really make hay with this before the mid-level warming becomes a spoiler. Get those rulers in before the pellets begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 15, 2018 Author Share Posted November 15, 2018 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Weren’t you just saying that Winter wasn’t starting until mid to late January last week? Nope, never did. Was citing that most seasonal guys said it would be a late start. Was also just poking DIT about it. My team always had a long, very long winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Your team lol...ok Berg.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Just now, WinterWolf said: Your team lol...ok Berg.. You don't have a site subscription yet? Berg is the word! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 57 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I like the general idea... prob a bit low down here IMO. id bet a place like Sharon or Wrentham will do pretty well in this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 TWC official forecast for Brockton area is for 5-8 inches now. One of their winter wx experts feels that the cold air is going to be difficult to displace, even at the midlevels. Since Brockton is 15 mi SE of here, things should look good for my hood if this verifies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: TWC official forecast for Brockton area is for 5-8 inches now. One of their winter wx experts feels that the cold air is going to be difficult to displace, even at the midlevels. Since Brockton is 15 mi SE of here, things should look good for my hood if this verifies. I heard that to. If that is even remotely true then Harvey on channel 5 maybe on to something. We'll have to wait and see what the models hint at tonight. If they go colder at all, then, those higher totals might be realized. Have to stay on the conservative side first of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 I miss Brockton. We always did fairly well, esp the NW side near 200'. Anyways, Harvey is right. Logan getting 1" and JP/West Roxbury getting 4" is very possible. Even here, with an E wind, North Weymouth may get an inch, here 1-2, and S Weymouth 4". It's all about being away from proximity of water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: id bet a place like Sharon or Wrentham will do pretty well in this Or Stoughton lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 25 minutes ago, dendrite said: Steve posted the 3km NAM time-hgt thermals earlier for ORH. After that quick thump there’s some major nucleation issues with >0C at the cloud tops. That’s an icy look for awhile after midnight for those remaining below freezing. We’ve got quite an ice event ahead for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’m not talking about that. Pattern looks great. But take it easy James. We all know you get excited. We all know you like to downplay. Told me Fake News on FB. Told me no WSW, told me sell on 3-6”. We up play 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: We all know you like to downplay. Told me Fake News on FB. Told me no WSW, told me sell on 3-6”. We up play I don't wish cast. Just tone it down so the good folks on here aren't mislead with weenie BS. We all know you're excited, but lots of people come on here for good info. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Depending on tonight's runs.. I think DT has the right idea with his map.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: I don't wish cast. Just tone it down so the good folks on here aren't mislead with weenie BS. We all know you're excited, but lots of people come on here for good info. Which I can and do deliver. Lots of folks here are glass half full vs your half empty . Just respect them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Just now, ineedsnow said: Depending on tonight's runs.. I think DT has the right idea with his map.. Post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Which I can and do deliver. Lots of folks here are glass half full vs your half empty . Just respect them 3-5" backlash? Just relax a bit. Enjoy 3-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Post. Wxrisk on Facebook. Cant attach but pretty much 4 to 7 for ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Pete B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Pete B I think that is way too bearish. Esp just inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 5 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Make sure everybody posts every advisory and watch on the board so it can take up 20 pages. 4 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Zone forecasts too And everyone quote all local affiliates snowfall maps, Might as well include everything. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 21z sref plumes bumped up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: 18z EURO has me below zero tomorrow morning. jfc. What an air mass for mid-November. Clear skies and 10f on the car thermo when I came home half an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We all know you like to downplay. Told me Fake News on FB. Told me no WSW, told me sell on 3-6”. We up play I'd be cautious on the higher end. Outside of isolated pockets 4" max in SNE should be the rule unless this comes together perfectly. You are going to need dynamics, mid-level temps and our climo to sync perfectly for warning level snows. Not saying it can't happen but I would be very cautious in November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Yeah Pete B is bullish in N ORH county (and prob should be) but I think it's def a bit too pessimistic in the 128-495 belt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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