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November 15 Snow/Ice Chance


showmethesnow

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

3k nam soundings are pretty interesting. Warm layer is mostly above 800mb during much of the precip and it's fairly shallow. Very borderline soundings that don't really give confidence in any direction. 

can we please get a winter storm during winter so we dont have took at every single layer please

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The 3km NAM has the Ferrier SLR in addition to the 10:1 SLR. Not gonna post the maps but there is a dramatic difference lol.

Of course the concept with the Ferrier correction is to be more accurate with modeled snow accumulations in marginal storms, and where there is a likelihood of sleet.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
346 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

MDZ501-502-VAZ026>030-507-WVZ050-051-055-501>506-140500-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0006.181115T0900Z-181116T1100Z/
Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-Rockingham-
Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-
Hampshire-Morgan-Hardy-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-
Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton-
Eastern Pendleton-
346 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed wintry precipitation possible. Total ice
  accumulations of one quarter inch or greater are possible. Total
  snow and sleet accumulation of several inches is also possible.

* WHERE...Portions of western Maryland, western Virginia and
  eastern West Virginia.

* WHEN...From late Wednesday night through late Thursday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Slippery road conditions are possible.
  Scattered power outages and tree damage are possible due to the
  ice. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and
  evening commutes on Thursday. Any ice accumulation on paved
  surfaces including driveways, sidewalks, and parking lots, could
  also create hazardous conditions for those venturing out on
  foot.
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
346 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

VAZ025-503-504-508-140500-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0006.181115T0600Z-181116T0600Z/
Augusta-Western Highland-Eastern Highland-
Central Virginia Blue Ridge-
346 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed wintry precipitation possible. Total ice
  accumulations of one quarter inch or greater are possible. Total
  snow and sleet accumulation of several inches is also possible.

* WHERE...Augusta, Western Highland and Eastern Highland Counties,
  along with the Central Virginia Blue Ridge.

* WHEN...From late Wednesday night through late Thursday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Slippery road conditions are possible.
  Scattered power outages and tree damage are possible due to the
  ice. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and
  evening commutes on Thursday. Any ice accumulation on paved
  surfaces including driveways, sidewalks, and parking lots, could
  also create hazardous conditions for those venturing out on
  foot.
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10 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Yeah, but I'll be very satisfied with the other. 2-3 inches in mid Nov is sweet. I looked at my records which go back to 1979.

15th- 0.5 1986, T 2014

16th- T 2007, T 2008

So just about anything accumulating is gonna be a record.

That is why we should not expect anything but some TV snow outside of the mountains

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7 minutes ago, Interstate said:

That is why we should not expect anything but some TV snow outside of the mountains

I think there will be a fair bit of IP.  I’m not one to be too positive but I think most areas west of the bay will see a period of frozen more than just TV snow.  Sun angle is ok if that matters. 

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3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Anyone know what the standard ratio for sleet is? RGEM just absolutely whacked parts of Virginia with sleet/ice. 

~.75" frozen in Cville but I don't think any of it was snow.

RGEM/12K NAM would be nuts for the 81 corridor in VA. QPF is plentiful with this one no doubting it.

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41 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I believe sleet will be the big story for many when we do the after storm analysis.  Thickness just not great for many to support a good snow event.  Ice is cool.  

Totally agree. I really like sleet except when it happens unexpectedly during a snow event. Forecasted sleetstorms are great. Especially in deep winter when it's below freezing. Nothing has the staying power of glaciated sleetcover.  Feb 07 was the epitome of glaciation

I'm ready to set my bar for this event in my yard. I'll go with anything at or above 1" measurable as a huge success. Don't care if it's snow/sleet/grauple/mangled dendrites or anything in between. I want to measure 1"+ on my patio table and call this event a huge success. 

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