nj2va Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Classic CAD signal on the GFS with the bent isobars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 GFS looks like mostly rain to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Code yellow in the cities huh? Impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 GFS pretty close to 6z. Maybe a touch warmer. Better for the far N+W crew because precip comes in faster resulting in more snow to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: GFS looks like mostly rain to me. Toss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 How far NW do I have to be Asking for a friend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: GFS pretty close to 6z. Maybe a touch warmer. Better for the far N+W crew because precip comes in faster resulting in more snow to start. Nice. We all gotta stay grounded and realize that for most folks, an inch or two on the sidewalks, cars, etc is all we're gonna see. This is early season pre-gaming with house money. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Nice. We all gotta stay grounded and realize that for most folks, an inch or two on the sidewalks, cars, etc is all we're gonna see. This is early season pre-gaming with house money. It may happen that way, but I do not agree at all that that is all we may see. This has the potential to be a good winter storm. This is a much bigger threat IMO than Oct of 2011 was. And we are already midway through November. Good trends and a good chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: It may happen that way, but I do not agree at all that that is all we may see. This has the potential to be a good winter storm. This is a much bigger threat IMO than Oct of 2011 was. And we are already midway through November. Good trends and a good chance. I've learned to keep my expectations in the basement in before December 5th and after St. Patrick's Day. Anything more than an advisory level event on the book ends of the season is great. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It may happen that way, but I do not agree at all that that is all we may see. This has the potential to be a good winter storm. This is a much bigger threat IMO than Oct of 2011 was. And we are already midway through November. Good trends and a good chance. We have TOO long for this to reverse trends! Seen it so many times! We get sucked in, and then... Well a picture is worth a 1000+ words in the Mid Atlantic and weather models! But if it trends better and better, well then I like this winter already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 9 minutes ago, Jandurin said: How far NW do I have to be Asking for a friend Maybe next time for Leesburg folks. A flake or two then rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 I'd take the 12z CMC... pretty decent for N VA into all of MD pretty much along and west of I-95... better than 00z in N VA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Clueless said: Maybe next time for Leesburg folks. A flake or two then rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 This event reminds me of December 8, 2013, and also an event we had in 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It may happen that way, but I do not agree at all that that is all we may see. This has the potential to be a good winter storm. This is a much bigger threat IMO than Oct of 2011 was. And we are already midway through November. Good trends and a good chance. Can you look at this, in all honesty, and say that most people on this sub forum will see more than an inch or two? I’m all for positivity, and I know 1987 happened, but sometimes we have to be realists first and base our expectations on the information coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 12z FV3 is still the lulz re the snow maps... anybody get the 12z GEFS yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, mattie g said: Can you look at this, in all honesty, and say that most people on this sub forum will see more than an inch or two? I’m all for positivity, and I know 1987 happened, but sometimes we have to be realists first and base our expectations on the information coming in. wnwxluvr is in a PRIME spot for this event. You and me? heh... aww hellz nooes mang 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 F3 is further south with the ULL compared to 6z. Column isn't looking so good before the pass but ULLs have a way of doing whatever the F they want 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 FV3 gets a stronger press from the cold high which looks to counter the slower ULL pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Man if we can just cool the column by a couple of degrees everyone's in business. If this were two weeks from now it'd be no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: F3 is further south with the ULL compared to 6z. Column isn't looking so good before the pass but ULLs have a way of doing whatever the F they want Keep pushing that bowling ball south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 They may need a Watch out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 37 minutes ago, mattie g said: Can you look at this, in all honesty, and say that most people on this sub forum will see more than an inch or two? I’m all for positivity, and I know 1987 happened, but sometimes we have to be realists first and base our expectations on the information coming in. To be honest, I usually only look at where I live. I think most of us do that. My expectation is that this resembles Dec 26, 2013 for most of the area. That storm was a different setup as it was a TN valley storm that jumped to the coast, and a more pronounced CAD, but I think this storm may be very similar in the weather that we see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 29 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Keep pushing that bowling ball south! If the next Euro ticks it even just a smidge further south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 @yoda I think you had asked for this. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 UKMET not as good. More north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: UKMET not as good. More north. Makes sense. Coming to its senses as we get closer to gametime and trending toward the more realistic model solutions. Guessing we will see Euro trend a bit northwest as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 15 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: @yoda I think you had asked for this. That's amazing to see for November! eta: not a single dud! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: UKMET not as good. More north. For this time of year that's amazing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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