Chris78 Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: I guess there is a reason they call the 18Z the Happy Hour Run. Does Weatherbell snow maps still include sleet and freezing rain as snow? I would assume it does looking at that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Does Weatherbell snow maps still include sleet and freezing rain as snow? I would assume it does looking at that?It definitely does....in marginal events it’s tough to get an handle on what each member is actually depicting unless you dig deep into each one individually. IMO, the only takeaway is that things again trended colder/more frozen than 12z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Yea.. some members are off the hook .. geez Especially our friends in the southwest contingent Those are the words I love to hear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 18z Euro has precip onset just after 12z Thursday. A few hours of mix for the cities before changeover to rain. Surface temps start at 34 but cool to 32 during the morning hours before starting to warm up. Favored areas stay below freezing through 00z Friday. Temps start crashing by 9z Friday and a potential flip back over to frozen as it ends (ha, we do so well with that around here). 10:1 snowfall maps have the 2” line just SE of DC and 3” running through the city. While I do think we see a period of frozen precip, I don’t think we accumulate at all. I think the favored areas could see a few inches of sleet/snow. Just my guess at the moment. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 7 minutes ago, nj2va said: 18z Euro has precip onset just after 12z Thursday. A few hours of mix for the cities before changeover to rain. Surface temps start at 34 but cool to 32 during the morning hours before starting to warm up. Favored areas stay below freezing through 00z Friday. Temps start crashing by 9z Friday and a potential flip back over to frozen as it ends (ha, we do so well with that around here). 10:1 snowfall maps have the 2” line just SE of DC and 3” running through the city. While I do think we see a period of frozen precip, I don’t think we accumulate at all. I think the favored areas could see a few inches of sleet/snow. Just my guess at the moment. Totally reasonable. The more extreme solutions don’t make sense to me. It’s cold but not exceptionally so. We would need it further east and much lower thickness this early. 528 or lower. Conversational east of 81. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 12 minutes ago, nj2va said: 18z Euro has precip onset just after 12z Thursday. A few hours of mix for the cities before changeover to rain. Surface temps start at 34 but cool to 32 during the morning hours before starting to warm up. Favored areas stay below freezing through 00z Friday. Temps start crashing by 9z Friday and a potential flip back over to frozen as it ends (ha, we do so well with that around here). 10:1 snowfall maps have the 2” line just SE of DC and 3” running through the city. While I do think we see a period of frozen precip, I don’t think we accumulate at all. I think the favored areas could see a few inches of sleet/snow. Just my guess at the moment. How does it compare to the 12z Euro? Take a step Back? Improve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Still getting used to seeing the words "18z EURO".... 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 9 minutes ago, Chris78 said: How does it compare to the 12z Euro? Take a step Back? Improve? Also wondering I’m thinking improve since 3” is in the city. Interested to see what iad is at now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, NoVaWx said: Also wondering I’m thinking improve since 3” is in the city. Interested to see what iad is at now. 13 minutes ago, Chris78 said: How does it compare to the 12z Euro? Take a step Back? Improve? Flipped between the two, it's an improvement. I'll share the map. Hopefully Maue won't hunt me down. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 13 minutes ago, Chris78 said: How does it compare to the 12z Euro? Take a step Back? Improve? Didn’t dig too much into details (navigating his website is torture even when the panels work) but snowfall map is another improvement. 2” line was running through DC at 12z. IAD 4” at 12z...5” at 18z. (Not endorsing those totals, just showing the “improvement”) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Flipped between the two, it's an improvement. I'll share the map. Hopefully Maue won't hunt me down. Why is he using 10:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 11 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Why is he using 10:1? That's the way most snow maps are set up regardless of the model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 FWIW, 00Z NAM is faster with the precip than the 18z run. Not really makes much of a difference, and it's at range, but still a positive step Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Hour 66... NAM'd. Yeah I know. NAM at range. I'll show myself out now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 That is an ideal NAM run. Wintery mix than shutoff before we get a chance at the deform band. I like it. Only change I would make is having more snow before the sleet/FRZA mess (or just all snow). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 I cannot believe we are having a bonafied discussion regarding a winter threat in the middle of November. The 32k nam is bonkers down here in ROA at 60hrs. Absolute perfect positioning of the 1038 HP over Binghamton NY. Timing of precip in my neck of the woods is ideal. Going to be very interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: I cannot believe we are having a bonafied discussion regarding a winter threat in the middle of November. The 32k nam is bonkers down here in ROA at 60hrs. Absolute perfect positioning of the 1038 HP over Binghamton NY. Timing of precip in my neck of the woods is ideal. Going to be very interesting to say the least. Lol at 66 hours its pouring snow up here on the 32km NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 00z 3km NAM at hr 60 - which is 12z THUR - ends with a lot of sleet ongoing in western into central VA and moving NE looks like with the precip shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Just now, yoda said: 3km NAM at 60 - which is 12z THUR - ends with a lot of sleet in western into central VA Faster onset of precip than 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 I know it’s out of range but the ULL at 84 is further south...that’s the key to some parachutes in the deform. Only talking 50 or so miles south with that feature. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 its Nov 12....and we just had our first NAMD 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Slightly stronger HP by 1mb at 48 on 00z GFS compared to 18z at 54... HP position a bit further NW at 54 on 00z compared to 18z at 60 IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Heights lower out in front. Should mean a further south ULL pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, LP08 said: Heights lower out in front. Should mean a further south ULL pass So close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Lmao! I’ve been Nam’d and GFS’d tonight. Warning type ice accretion on both models down this way and we continue the colder trend up to game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Lmao! I’ve been Nam’d and GFS’d tonight. Warning type ice accretion on both models down this way and we continue the colder trend up to game time. My experience is that any situation where CAD is involved the trend is usually colder as it nears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 That setup looks exactly like 1/26/11 too bad it's not winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: My experience is that any situation where CAD is involved the trend is usually colder as it nears. Wholeheartedly agree. I hope everyone can get something out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 FV3 is colder, probably a period of snow for most before it flip to sleet/FRZA. GEFS rolling in now too, ICEP rolls in between 54-60z from SW to NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Definitely lots of ice mixed in but still, NSFW image 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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