Neblizzard Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 1 hour ago, CIK62 said: Next 8 days averaging 39degs., or about 5degs. BN. Month to date is -1.8[47.6]. Should be -2.7[45.1] by the 29th. Meanwhile it is 38 here at 6am. Should be 20 this same time tomorrow. Looks like all the wet periods the next 15 days have AN temps. and rain for us. So the beautiful cold goes to waste. You trust the models 15 days out ? We’ll see how that pans out going forward. I always liked after New Years and beyond for this upcoming winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 1 hour ago, tim said: ...ideal radiational cooling conditions for thurs. nite/friday morning..according to NWS latest forecast discussion..they have a low of 5* for KFOK friday morning..i'm thinking i should achieve a single digit low also.. What kind of barometric pressures are we looking at? I think the Arctic High will pass right overhead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Just hoping for a 16° low by Friday am to break my station's Nov record low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: What kind of barometric pressures are we looking at? I think the Arctic High will pass right overhead? Looks to be around 1037mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 14 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I remember Isotherm did some research on this before, but very cold Novembers actually seem to be negatively correlated with snowy winters- I hope that doesn't happen this time. Considering how November 1987 and 1989 went and the winters that came after that. ISP had 65.9 inches of snow last winter following the record cold last November around the area. While the 70's and 80's were a much colder era than the present, they had much less snowfall. So when we approach cold temperature records from that era, heavier 2010's snowfall climo must be used. ISP also had record cold in November 2014 with 63.7 of snow for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 40 minutes ago, bluewave said: ISP had 65.9 inches of snow last winter following the record cold last November around the area. While the 70's and 80's were a much colder era than the present, they had much less snowfall. So when we approach cold temperature records from that era, heavier 2010's snowfall climo must be used. ISP also had record cold in November 2014 with 63.7 of snow for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 I’m still shocked how the weather has turned from the 1970’s and 1980’s. Snow was so rare then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 15 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I remember Isotherm did some research on this before, but very cold Novembers actually seem to be negatively correlated with snowy winters- I hope that doesn't happen this time. Considering how November 1987 and 1989 went and the winters that came after that. Most of those were in non El Niño years. I think that stat is heavily skewed by La Niña years which tend to be cold early like 1989 or 1996. Though 87-88 wasn’t a snowy winter here I do believe it was fairly cold or at least near normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 19 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Thanks for this information. I did see the PNS and was surprised to see how little snow had been reported at Logan Airport. 15 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I thought I saw a report of 2.6" at Logan? The 0.1" must be a typo or error 15 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said: Logan is surrounded by water east of downtown Boston. That measurement is believable, assuming it's not a typo. I noted a trace on the beach vs an inch and a half on the ground a quarter mile inland on the north shore of LI during the first part of the snowfall. "Load of crap" is a tad harsh. 12 hours ago, dmillz25 said: There was a measurement in the NE thread from someone who lives less than a mile from the airport and they received 1.7” I live .5 miles west of Logan Airport in East Boston. The Logan measurement was what was actually measured and not a typo but it was a joke. I had about 1.5"-2.0" at my place. From what I've been told, the person who does the official measurement for Logan is located in Winthrop, MA which is east of Logan Airport and right on the ocean. They might have in fact on measured 0.1 at their place in Winthrop but areas JUST east of there got a lot more than 0.1" including Downtown Boston. The actual city probably got around 2" while areas a few miles west got a lot more. Unfortunately, as far as records go, it goes down as 0.1" for that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 40 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: I’m still shocked how the weather has turned from the 1970’s and 1980’s. Snow was so rare then BNL averaged 25.5" for the 1970's and 1980's vs 48.4" during the 2010's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 years with at least 4" of snow in November and what followed...the only el nino winter was 1896-97 and Dec. got 13" from two storms...one just before Christmas...it had the only white Christmas I think... 1882-83...14.0" in November...30" more fell that season but only a trace in Dec... 1892-93.....6.3" in November...43" more fell that season but Dec. had only 3"...3" fell in Dec... 1898-99...19.0" in November...37" more fell that winter including a Ludlum storm in February...only 1.5" in dec... 1896-97.....5.0" in November...39" more fell that winter including a major storm in Jan...13" fell in Dec... 1938-39...12.8" in November...24" more fell that winter including another 9" storm in January...1.7" fell in Dec... 1989-90.....4.7" in November.....9" more fell that winter...Dec had 1.4"...8 2012-13.....4.7" in November...21" more fell that winter including an 11" storm in Feb...Dec. had 0.4"... 2018-19.....6.4" in November... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 9 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: OP runs now showing a big ridge trying to form in the east to start December with -NAO blocking breaking down. A radical change from two days ago. Which models show this? Every model looks good to start December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 On 11/1/2018 at 1:24 PM, Snow88 said: Mid November should be watched for an east coast storm with the deep trough in the east. Interior areas have the best chance of snow if a storm develops but the coast should also watch out for it. Probably my best post ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 30 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: I’m still shocked how the weather has turned from the 1970’s and 1980’s. Snow was so rare then The cold AMO was probably the reason for that as well as just overall bad luck. We’ve seen the last few years you can get snow with a +NAO here, back then it seemed we never could Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 18 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: I live .5 miles west of Logan Airport in East Boston. The Logan measurement was what was actually measured and not a typo but it was a joke. I had about 1.5"-2.0" at my place. From what I've been told, the person who does the official measurement for Logan is located in Winthrop, MA which is east of Logan Airport and right on the ocean. They might have in fact on measured 0.1 at their place in Winthrop but areas JUST east of there got a lot more than 0.1" including Downtown Boston. The actual city probably got around 2" while areas a few miles west got a lot more. Unfortunately, as far as records go, it goes down as 0.1" for that storm Yeah for whatever reason Logan and Philly both removed the official measurements from the airport years ago. It’s why you’ll never see SNINCR remarks during storms there. I believe a few other airports have done that too including DEN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Yeah for whatever reason Logan and Philly both removed the official measurements from the airport years ago. It’s why you’ll never see SNINCR remarks during storms there. I believe a few other airports have done that too including DEN From what I was told by a Met in the NE thread, the NWS rules for measurement location of an ASOS site can be within a certain radius of said ASOS. For KBOS, Winthrop falls under that radius so some guy just measures from his house, Taunton/Norton accepts it and it goes down as the official measurement for Boston. Not sure what the situation is like down in Philly but I know that people in this regional forum (which would include myself before I moved there a couple of years ago) will like the fact that Boston will often measure low and that gives KNYC a chance to "beat" Boston during nor'easters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 7 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: From what I was told by a Met in the NE thread, the NWS rules for measurement location of an ASOS site can be within a certain radius of said ASOS. For KBOS, Winthrop falls under that radius so some guy just measures from his house, Taunton/Norton accepts it and it goes down as the official measurement for Boston. Not sure what the situation is like down in Philly but I know that people in this regional forum (which would include myself before I moved there a couple of years ago) will like the fact that Boston will often measure low and that gives KNYC a chance to "beat" Boston during nor'easters. Which is rare and always fun when it happens lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 26 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The cold AMO was probably the reason for that as well as just overall bad luck. We’ve seen the last few years you can get snow with a +NAO here, back then it seemed we never could As a kid growing up in mid Nassau county, countless times the storms would affect “north and west” of the Tappen Zee Bridge in a much different manner than on Long Island. Cold rain here was the norm. I have to change my thinking on upcoming storms. The last storm was a perfect example of the type of storm that would change to a cold rain on LI-maybe a few flakes mixed in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 44 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Probably my best post ever And you have made some great calls the last 2 years!! Your predictions are not to be discounted—which stinks for me as I have definitely switched over to the anti-snow camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 10 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: As a kid growing up in mid Nassau county, countless times the storms would affect “north and west” of the Tappen Zee Bridge in a much different manner than on Long Island. Cold rain here was the norm. I have to change my thinking on upcoming storms. The last storm was a perfect example of the type of storm that would change to a cold rain on LI-maybe a few flakes mixed in same deal living just NW of Philly as a kid-Allentown and Reading where the places to be for the big snows-we were often snow to rain or just a cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: same deal living just NW of Philly as a kid-Allentown and Reading where the places to be for the big snows-we were often snow to rain or just a cold rain I now live in Suffolk and my kids think that snow days are a given, every year. They have no idea how lucky they are to be in this type of pattern. Given how it has flipped I wonder if this is the new normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 11 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: OP runs now showing a big ridge trying to form in the east to start December with -NAO blocking breaking down. A radical change from two days ago. The 11/21/2018 0z EPS shows the block over Canada poking into the East during hours 240-288 creating some ridging in the East. However, after hour 288, the trough is back in place and remains there through the remainder of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 43 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The 11/21/2018 0z EPS shows the block over Canada poking into the East during hours 240-288 creating some ridging in the East. However, after hour 288, the trough is back in place and remains there through the remainder of the run. The ridging should be enough that we see a big cutter in early December. Also very little cold to speak of in late November/early December. We'll probably be waiting a lot longer before things become more favorable for us. However the early blocking pattern is a really good sign for Jan/Feb as they tend to repeat. AO looks to tank to -4 or lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 All-time record low temperatures for the month of November are falling with the Arctic front moving south through Canada. Overnight low of -33.6°C in Wabush, NL is the coldest temperature ever recorded in November. Previous was -33.1°C on Nov 20, 1986. Records kept since 1960. #NLwx #Labrador 2:11 AM - 21 Nov 2018 Intense cold in the #Maritimes smashed record lows this morning in NB & PEI. With -15.2°C, #Charlottetown recorded its coldest November low on record (since 1943)! #NBwx #MeteoQC #PEwx pic.twitter.com/ueTQCkJfnm 4:23 AM - 19 Nov 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 A little over reaction or "reaction" from last Thursday: From NYC Dept of Sanitation Twitter account: More A snow squall is in the forecast for NYC Wed. afternoon, with a coating to less than an inch of snow possible. Our salt spreaders are ready across the five boroughs, and we will pre-salt elevated areas & overpasses ahead of potential snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 2 hours ago, 495weatherguy said: I now live in Suffolk and my kids think that snow days are a given, every year. They have no idea how lucky they are to be in this type of pattern. Given how it has flipped I wonder if this is the new normal Until the dreaded winter where everything goes wrong for us and it’s wall to wall 60s and no snow. It’s coming one day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 36 minutes ago, weathermedic said: A little over reaction or "reaction" from last Thursday: From NYC Dept of Sanitation Twitter account: More A snow squall is in the forecast for NYC Wed. afternoon, with a coating to less than an inch of snow possible. Our salt spreaders are ready across the five boroughs, and we will pre-salt elevated areas & overpasses ahead of potential snow. Jersey too. Per NJ.com, Murphy has over 100 trucks ready to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 28 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Until the dreaded winter where everything goes wrong for us and it’s wall to wall 60s and no snow. It’s coming one day... I wouldn’t dread that winter We have more than made up for the snow deficit of the ‘70s and ‘80s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: The ridging should be enough that we see a big cutter in early December. Also very little cold to speak of in late November/early December. We'll probably be waiting a lot longer before things become more favorable for us. However the early blocking pattern is a really good sign for Jan/Feb as they tend to repeat. AO looks to tank to -4 or lower. Blocking is already in place and will be for the foreseeable future. Things will become favorable in early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 1 hour ago, bluewave said: All-time record low temperatures for the month of November are falling with the Arctic front moving south through Canada. Overnight low of -33.6°C in Wabush, NL is the coldest temperature ever recorded in November. Previous was -33.1°C on Nov 20, 1986. Records kept since 1960. #NLwx #Labrador 2:11 AM - 21 Nov 2018 Intense cold in the #Maritimes smashed record lows this morning in NB & PEI. With -15.2°C, #Charlottetown recorded its coldest November low on record (since 1943)! #NBwx #MeteoQC #PEwx pic.twitter.com/ueTQCkJfnm 4:23 AM - 19 Nov 2018 the source region for the incoming air mass is not emanating from far eastern canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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