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NorthArlington101

October/November Mid/Long Range Disco

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I'm tired of things being either put in the Digital Snow thread or the Obs/Disco thread so I think its time for this.

I genuinely think Western areas have a shot at a storm this weekend and that others have a chance to see first flakes.

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_fh144_trend.thumb.gif.429efbcda6ca38fcb4a92c50148dad83.gif

The GEFS has looked better in earlier runs (18z yesterday, woof), but this isn't an awful look. Decent amount of members give something trackable. Looked best yesterday at 18z, so maybe a sign.

Yet a couple of other things have hopped on. 0z CMC was probably the first legit OP run in short-range this year. Heckuva western burbs run.

gem_asnow_neus_25.png

The EURO and the EPS were also fairly interesting as well. EURO showed an appreciable increase in the strength of the low and hence the cold of the system. 850s in the western burbs hung around 0-1C with temps around 35F. Wouldn't take much for a pasting out there, IMO.

eurocontrol21.thumb.PNG.29009d078030191505101e32cc4608f5.PNG

This is yesterdays (12z) EURO Control, which definitely suggested following along. 

Below is today's (0z) EURO Control, which still is very interesting.

m4ddlgi.jpg

The EURO OP also got on board and is an appreciable step up from 0z.

Vi4rLpX.jpg

Welcome to winter.

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12z OPS (CMC/EURO) and ens (EPS not out yet though) all took a step backwards. Low is weaker and temps are warmer. EURO went from a 993mb low off the Delmarva to a 998mb low. 

GFS moved in the right direction with a more consolidated & stronger low, but would need to be closer to the coast. Something I've noticed looking at better runs and ensemble members is that slower is better for this chance.

GEFS still has some good members (for October 22nd) but has definitely backed off from where it was yesterday evening.

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1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 


Thread = dead emoji6.png

 

Nah lol.

Long way to go yet for the late week into next weekend period- and even into the following week. Looks active, with possibly 2 storms moving through the area. At this point the far western highlands (if significant precip gets there) would be the place for any threat of frozen. Probably a long shot for anything other than rain in the western burbs of DC/Baltimore. Certainly not impossible.

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5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Nah lol.

Long way to go yet for the late week into next weekend period- and even into the following week. Looks active, with possibly 2 storms moving through the area. At this point the far western highlands (if significant precip gets there) would be the place for any threat of frozen. Probably a long shot for anything other than rain in the western burbs of DC/Baltimore. Certainly not impossible.

Best shot at anyone besides the mountains/extreme western burbs seeing frozen is probably with the follow up impulse that runs through from the west as the initial low runs up the coast.

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6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Best shot at anyone besides the mountains/extreme western burbs seeing frozen is probably with the follow up impulse that runs through from the west as the initial low runs up the coast.

Agreed! Would be mixed mangled flake at best (from what I gather) and all the sun angle latent heat issues galore!

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5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Best shot at anyone besides the mountains/extreme western burbs seeing frozen is probably with the follow up impulse that runs through from the west as the initial low runs up the coast.

Possibly yeah. Convoluted at this point on the guidance. The initial low could end up a significant rainer for I-95 and east, and not too much N&W. The trailing energy looks interesting, but might end up developing into more of a threat for our friends to the NE.

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What a nice looking system on the gfs...if this were winter. It’ll be fun tracking regardless but anytime a sub 1000mb low tucked into VA Beach and stalling for 12+ hours shows up I can’t help but be a little upset this isn’t just 30 days later.

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4 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

What a nice looking system on the gfs...if this were winter. It’ll be fun tracking regardless but anytime a sub 1000mb low tucked into VA Beach and stalling for 12+ hours shows up I can’t help but be a little upset this isn’t just 30 days later.

Classic Miller A. Maybe a good sign of things to come if you are into the whole atmospheric memory thing?

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Agree with Gfs looking nice . I like that the high in southeast Canada is more stout this run.  A tad stronger low probably would drag temps down just enough for some possible wet paste n+w .  As is ...far n+w gets some white stuff.

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26 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Classic Miller A. Maybe a good sign of things to come if you are into the whole atmospheric memory thing?

Yup.

I couldn’t care less about tracking wet flakes in October or most of November. It’s not worth it. What is worth it is seeing a pattern of coastals running into chilly air, because while it may or may not portend a similar atmospheric setup for when it really counts, I’d much rather have this than hope that a stable, crap-looking pattern flips in our favor.

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6 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Yup.

I couldn’t care less about tracking wet flakes in October or most of November. It’s not worth it. What is worth it is seeing a pattern of coastals running into chilly air, because while it may or may not portend a similar atmospheric setup for when it really counts, I’d much rather have this than hope that a stable, crap-looking pattern flips in our favor.

OK - I agree! Let's hope for repeats with colder highs to the north!

 

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24 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Yup.

I couldn’t care less about tracking wet flakes in October or most of November. It’s not worth it. What is worth it is seeing a pattern of coastals running into chilly air, because while it may or may not portend a similar atmospheric setup for when it really counts, I’d much rather have this than hope that a stable, crap-looking pattern flips in our favor.

That's real strong language in the bolded . You must not be a TRUE:) snow lover .( just kidding)I care anytime there's a chance at snow or flakes and it's always worth it to me  lol. . I won't ever turn down tracking flakes matter how low the probability and its low for sure this time of year. Agree with your last sentence.  

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Latest Euro weeklies (through Dec 7) is -1.5 to -2.0 as the 2m temp anomaly and slightly above average precip (precip looks to be Nino-like with negative departures along Gulf/SE/into Mid Atlantic).  Give me this look throughout the rest of December and I'd be shocked if we got out of the month with 0" snowfall.  

ETA:  This is for the 46 day mean btw.  

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11 hours ago, nj2va said:

Latest Euro weeklies (through Dec 7) is -1.5 to -2.0 as the 2m temp anomaly and slightly above average precip (precip looks to be Nino-like with negative departures along Gulf/SE/into Mid Atlantic).  Give me this look throughout the rest of December and I'd be shocked if we got out of the month with 0" snowfall.  

ETA:  This is for the 46 day mean btw.  

Looking at the 500 mb heights- one noticeable change from the previous run, especially beyond mid Nov, are generally lower heights in the NA. NPAC still looks quite favorable with lower heights near the Aleutians and EPO/PNA ridge. 

eta- neutral to slighty +AO, +NAO. Pacific driven. Looks changeable overall, with colder/milder periods, but no prolonged warmth. Pretty much what you would expect with no NA blocking. 

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

Just for fun + giggles. 

90 minute loop I found from 10-29-11 showing the r/s line advancing east . 

 

20181022_211522.gif

People can claim that early snow in the general DC-Baltimore area doesn’t mean anything either way in terms of how winter will turn out, but I know I get jittery when it happens (or threatens to happen). 

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3 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Classic Miller A. Maybe a good sign of things to come if you are into the whole atmospheric memory thing?

I really hope so. I shed a few tears when I reaped you last season. It was a rough season out your way.

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

2 coastals in 3 days lol...lots of left over vort energy this Gfs run to spawn another Coastal Late Monday evening...

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_27.png

In winter, these can be fun if they help establish cold air behind the first system. The second wave! In this case.. just more rain - I do not think this would have supported a snow chance later in the year either.

 

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