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Ginx snewx

Annual end of Oct blockbuster

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30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro brings a nice thump ORH west and north. Even crashes the snowline just about to the coast at the end 

meh, coast gets maybe some flakes but looks good western areas

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11 minutes ago, cny rider said:

We'll post plenty of pics for you guys and gals.

 

You should do it now before everything is east this winter. 

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... I've read some post in here re the October statistics as bearing some correlation with ensuing DJF ...  or maybe NDJFM ... whatever.   I'll just add this quick opine fwiw -

My experience is that there is a 'tendency' for storm frequency/active weather pattern establishment during the cool transition season.  In fact, I might be inclined to say pattern tendency ...

However, that does not say much about temperature anomaly distribution ( an equally important distinction).  But, perhaps most importantly, "tendency" is far from "certainty."   

In dealing with any public domain, one needs to be careful though... Because even in making that caveat emptor, suppose an active October then happens to not precede an unusually stormy active winter. Any such audacious Meteorologist will then be summarily bent over a ceremonial reputation ram-rod.  The qualifiers are missed ... I dunno, in lieu of what filtering wanted to hear: 

October .... storm ... = DJF, Kleenex and lotion.

I just don't have as much of a problem in seeing a stormy year parlay off of an active autumn. I'll leave it at that.  

As far as this thing ... the problem I am seeing with the GFS operational runs (and I'm not sure upon using the free products, if the Euro is doing the same thing..,) is that there is a leading convective feed-back issue near the latitudes of the Va Capes...  The spatial separation (as in distance...) between that early spin up, and the main trough amplitude is shrinking on average across successive runs ... as that gap closes, the model "might" be opting to wait for better forcing to detonate a coastal low.  But, if you look at the vorticity products, you really can see small shrapnel seem to spontaneously spawn in the flow there and sort of closes off from the inside out over 18 or so hours once that initiates ...  This then feeds back (I believe) on an erroneous early low that even bombs quite a bit... i suspect as we get closer that will continue to correct smoother and any more meaningful coastal cyclogen waits for the main trough amplitude.

So...that's long -winded (pun intended...) for describing a look more guided by convective feedback.  A storm will likely evolve in the period in question but those details are highly suspect to me.

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35 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Amazing signals now, should be fun and our first winter type pattern test of the new GFS

The timing is not that far off from giving first coatings to many, the sourced cold air to the north is just a wee bit stale by the time the Low gets latitude.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s zero cold air. It’s a Rainer for all with a damaging wind threat for all as well 

This is false

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10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The truth shall set you free . Sure the mtns in NY state and VT could see snow, but most of NE it’s too warm .

JB seeing it

 

Looks like the interior areas of northern New England will see snow.

Check out the latest Gfs

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30 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

October snow means crappy winter... let's hope for rain

Not really

There have been good winters with snow in October

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55 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

October snow means crappy winter... let's hope for rain

Depends on where.  Accumulating an inch in Boston in October correlates to a poor winter but if Boston gets a smaller amount that correlation doesn’t apply.  And it’s only Boston.  Worcester has no such correlation.   But beware-sample size renders these correlations relatively useless.    

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3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Depends on where.  Accumulating an inch in Boston in October correlates to a poor winter but if Boston gets a smaller amount that correlation doesn’t apply.  And it’s only Boston.  Worcester has no such correlation.   But beware-sample size renders these correlations relatively useless.    

PTSD over 1 storm is real. 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The truth shall set you free . Sure the mtns in NY state and VT could see snow, but most of NE it’s too warm .

JB seeing it

 

Rainer for all, except for some, sounds reasonable at this stage.

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47 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Depends on where.  Accumulating an inch in Boston in October correlates to a poor winter but if Boston gets a smaller amount that correlation doesn’t apply.  And it’s only Boston.  Worcester has no such correlation.   But beware-sample size renders these correlations relatively useless.    

 Amen brother. Good post about sample size. 

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