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Ginx snewx

Annual end of Oct blockbuster

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10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I see October 2005 in that list...even I had a couple of inches in that.

15"+ on the public lands just west of Greenville.  Many acres of (previously nice) young hardwood stands got torn apart by that one.

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Nevermind. Looks to be a Sunday deal or Sunday night into Monday which would be the 28th-29th interestingly enough. The GFS has a sheared inland mess in its 06z run but the FV3-GFS has a significant storm closer to the coast than the Euro albeit 35mb weaker than the said Euro. 

Hopefully they hold and others come on board as this would be the first fun week of tracking in the nor’easter season!

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3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Big coastals in autumn are always a good sign.

I won't lie, but that to me is like saying October snow is a bad thing.  Is there actually any evidence of this or is it just more of a "it can't be a bad thing to see storms this time of year"?

It seems like even crappy winters have autumn storms... like 2011, or 2006 there were huge October storms.

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3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

GFS blows something up this run, it's just well offshore. 

Not sure if big fall coastals or October snows are bad for winter, but not boring is good. 

It wasn't that far off from the Euro solution. A ton of energy on the backside.

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8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I won't lie, but that to me is like saying October snow is a bad thing.  Is there actually any evidence of this or is it just more of a "it can't be a bad thing to see storms this time of year"?

It seems like even crappy winters have autumn storms... like 2011, or 2006 there were huge October storms.

Lots of correlation data between the number and low pressure of Autumns storms and the following 3 to 4 months of weather.  Deep deep wet storms seem to be on the rise. With this insane coastal SST gradient set up, the increasing snow cover buildup in Eastern Canada looks like another crazy wild 5 months ahead

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lots of correlation data between the number and low pressure of Autumns storms and the following 3 to 4 months of weather.  Deep deep wet storms seem to be on the rise. With this insane coastal SST gradient set up, the increasing snow cover buildup in Eastern Canada looks like another crazy wild 5 months ahead

Yup.   The October snow thing is kind of tongue in cheek but it makes sense if you think about the rubber band snapping on some level.   But our pattern flipped in mid October.    2002 analogue for 2002-03 winter to me works.

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9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Yup.   The October snow thing is kind of tongue in cheek but it makes sense if you think about the rubber band snapping on some level.   But our pattern flipped in mid October.    2002 analogue for 2002-03 winter to me works.

Euro seasonal reminds me of 2002-2003...was telling Will and scooter that.

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14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My only issue with that analog is ENSO was a good bit stronger...I think this season will be more N stream and won't be as cold.

I will answer in the winter thread 

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lots of correlation data between the number and low pressure of Autumns storms and the following 3 to 4 months of weather.  Deep deep wet storms seem to be on the rise. With this insane coastal SST gradient set up, the increasing snow cover buildup in Eastern Canada looks like another crazy wild 5 months ahead

I'd be curious to see some of that correlation data, just from a pure skeptical standpoint.  I just feel like I can come up with big autumn storms in both crappy and great winters.

Maybe I'm looking at it wrong though.

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55 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I'd be curious to see some of that correlation data, just from a pure skeptical standpoint.  I just feel like I can come up with big autumn storms in both crappy and great winters.

Maybe I'm looking at it wrong though.

Go research its out there.

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47 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Good Lord, lots of 2 pennant+ barbs on the east side of the storm.  How often do you see that?

And it's gone on the 12z Euro

Very fickle situation

All about timing

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

I'd be curious to see some of that correlation data, just from a pure skeptical standpoint.  I just feel like I can come up with big autumn storms in both crappy and great winters.

Maybe I'm looking at it wrong though.

I’d like to see it too.

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Go research its out there.

Do you have the time to do it for us?

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