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Hurricane Michael


Solak
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1 minute ago, Regan said:

Well, maybe Brad isn’t going off the warning just being placed in Wake. Did I read that right?  The RAH discussion suggested they are watching for potentials for higher gusts. 

He tends to lean conservative with his forecasts and it is typical for him to really digest all the new data before he changes his forecast. But yes, you read that right. GSP has a similar discussion as well. I am currently in a Warning, but much like RAH added Raleigh the warning, I am waiting for GSP to add Charlotte as well.    

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Since most of the models grossly underestimated pressure on Michael, like 20-40mb, except for HRMON and a few others, and a lot of wind forecast maps were based of a cat 2 or 3 at  landfall, and the wind maps forecast inland, and since it basically came onshore as basically a cat 5, the wind forecasts inland , could be on the low side?? Thoughts

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1 hour ago, Shack said:

Tornado Warning and Hurricane Warning in Houston County(Warner Robins/Perry GA)

Fox24 has a pic of a supposed touchdown in Ft. Valley, but can't tell where. i was following it cause my parents live off Hwy 96 west of the Ft. Valley.

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33 minutes ago, Moonhowl said:

Could get interesting in downtown Raleigh on Thursday with the buildings catching wind and funneling it down to street level.  Could blow over some of the scooter people.

Not to mention the NC State Fair is suppose to open tomorrow afternoon.

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16 minutes ago, Lookout said:

Michael will enter georgia as a cat 3 hurricane....125mph.... absolutely incredible. 

Yeah you would think the only way thats possible would be over on the coast LOL.....friggen amazing.....HRRR and NAM still have as pocket of hurricane force wind gust on the SE and east side 14 hrs from now.....50 mph gust pushing up to ATL will mean the lower 2/3rd of GA will have power issues.....and hell all of SC will when it gets there. 

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NHC has it a lot weaker inland in 24 hours than previous forecasts.

INIT  10/2100Z 30.9N  85.1W  110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
 12H  11/0600Z 32.6N  83.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 24H  11/1800Z 35.1N  79.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  12/0600Z 37.6N  74.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  12/1800Z 40.7N  66.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  13/1800Z 46.7N  43.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  14/1800Z 49.2N  19.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  15/1800Z...ABSORBED
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The Twitter world is a mess with angry Atlanta folks in regards to no businesses or schools being closed tomorrow because “Irma was not even this close to here and you closed for that.”  Completely different setup for that one though.  I was amazed to see how many people remembered the fact Irma didn’t actually track anywhere close to areas it produced strong winds in once it dissipated to a TS. The general public usually isn’t that meteorologically savvy.  Especially after a year 

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3 minutes ago, CLTwx said:

Mets in Charlotte are kinda meh on it too....BP is usually spot on and yes...conservative. 

 

3 minutes ago, CLTwx said:

Mets in Charlotte are kinda meh on it too....BP is usually spot on and yes...conservative. 

One day his conservative nature is going to bite him in the butt! Maybe not with Michael, but one day he’s going to look really stupid! But I guess if you forecast as it’s happening, you can’t go wrong!?

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NWS RaleighVerified account @NWSRaleigh 18s19 seconds ago

 
 

The Tropical Storm Warning has been expanded to include Durham, Franklin, Granville, Halifax, Nash, Vance, Wake, and Warren Counties in Central #NCwx. Remnants from #HurricaneMichael will cross the area on Thursday, spreading heavy rain + damaging winds. https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201810102107-KRAH-WTUS82-HLSRAH 

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1 minute ago, Dunkman said:

I don't know, I'd certainly think about including the Charlotte metro up through the Triad. People here have done absolutely nothing to prepare in any way. Should be interesting tomorrow.

IF IF IF....that backside intense band of 60-80 mph winds does develop as modeled by a lot of models now it is certainly going to take a lot of people by surprise....all the models have it in one form or another and most start cranking it up just along a line from Charlotte to the Triad....it only last a few hrs but 2-3 hrs of gust 50-80 will be all it takes to cause widespread power outages and trees blocking roads etc....

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

I don't know, I'd certainly think about including the Charlotte metro up through the Triad. People here have done absolutely nothing to prepare in any way. Should be interesting tomorrow.

It's funny to me how much hype there was surrounding Florence, even after we knew for sure it wasn't going to be a big deal apart from some flooding. This should be equivalent or worse, and I've hardly heard a thing about it. Blame the media I guess.

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This confuses me.

500 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Smithfield
    - Clayton

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph
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12 minutes ago, Solak said:

This confuses me.


500 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Smithfield
    - Clayton

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph

I don’t get this because everything seems to be going up. 

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