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March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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717WeatherLover

717WeatherLover

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

DOT does a good job. Roads will be snow covered, but I would not expect 6" ruts on them. Just snow packed. The T will probably have some delays, but should be ok. I would not expect a huge issue in the city on the roads. Good luck with the surgery. 

Thank you!  I figured that they were better prepared to handle it than here in Harrisburg.  Our state offices closed last Wednesday for the storm and all we got was rain.  LOL!!  Four inches around here and everything shuts down.  Our arrival time is 11am but I am planning on heading in 7am or so.  We are trying to get the scans moved to before the surgery in the morning anyway.  I will enjoy sitting in the hospital watching the snow come down!

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I just have this nagging feeling in the back of my head. But, I can afford to wait until 12z stuff rolls in to add confidence. Just not sold a wide area of 12-18+ like some have. 

Yeah me too for some reason. The surface low is so far east with this one - it's not a classic look. 

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, WthrJunkyME said:

Off topic, but can you say something about your trip?  How long is it, is it work related?  I’m pretty envious, never had that opportunity.  Not yet, anyway.  Safe travels!

 

 

Sure. I have a consulting firm that does international work with large corporations developing their leaders to be more effective at leaving inclusively.  I am often in New York london Hong Kong and Tokyo.  I’m visiting London HK Tokyo Taipei in this trip, which is only 10 days.  If you’ve not been to London it is only 6 hours and there are sometimes low fares.  It is my favorite international city, spectacular and full of life.

re weather I appreciate what Chris rotary is saying about scooter flags but the signal has been so consistent for good well inland.   His forecast is climo for a strong nor’easter just outside the BM.  But you know there will be a nice band well inland.  As the precipice field develops early in the storm a band will jut up in a sw to ne orientation well before precipitation develops to its s and e.  That band will sit there and enhance as the storm develops.

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted

6-12” is still looking ok in N ORH.   I can’t see it being outside that range unless some ridiculous band sets in.  I’m expecting 8” at my place despite what BOX says.

If blizzard watches were still possible, I assume they would have been issued for Diane’s area, Cape Ann, coastal NH, and coastal ME?

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radarman

radarman

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

yup....way overdone

Tend to agree.  Thinking advy stuff for E Hampshire/Hampden counties.  Being on the far eastern edge I could see eking out 6". 

Good news is that with low expectations, it's mostly upside.  Unlike with so many others...

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I agree with Scott and Ryan in principle...  How many times do you see a low pressure node some 400 naut mi E of Cape Cod with 12" deformation band producing snow and wind/vis issues over eastern NE... 

That's really pushing the physics there... (Not saying it can't evolve that way ... it is a ginormous SD circulation and powerful system)

Having said that, I am also wondering/leaving options the other direction equally, as consideration.  Models could also have been erroneously opting to a convective induced center(s) too prodigiously and we could also see that low correct more W in tight - as in 24 hours lead. 

The Euro and UKmet coming west ... I don't see any guarantee they won't do so again this cycle this morning.  So... I'm bearing things in mind that it may be an omen either direction actually - not just for less..  WPC mentioned yesterday that the Euro has on occasions had to correct abruptly west several times over the last year and half over the EC and West Atlantic...doing so in short ranges. We can't be certain we are not looking faux layouts for different reasons just yet.  
 

I'd say traditionally the 24 -hr lead is above the 90th % ... and so perhaps this thing's closer path being 36 hours from the 12z run this morning sort of entering that scope, we have a fair chance at some better coalescence/answer for these lingering questions.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I agree with Scott and Ryan in principle...  How many times do you see a low pressure node some 400 naut mi E of Cape Cod with 12" deformation band producing snow and wind/vis issues over eastern NE... 

That's really pushing the tin there... 

Having said that, I am also wondering/leaving options the other direction equally, as consideration.  Models could also have been erroneously opting to a convective induced center(s) too prodigiously and we could also see that low correct more W in tight - as in 24 hours lead. 

The Euro and UKmet coming west ... I don't see any guarantee they won't do so again this cycle this morning.  So... I'm bearing things in mind that it may be an omen either direction actually - not just for less..  

It's just something to watch that's all. Hopefully 12z confirms forecasts.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted
Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I agree with Scott and Ryan in principle...  How many times do you see a low pressure node some 400 naut mi E of Cape Cod with 12" deformation band producing snow and wind/vis issues over eastern NE... 

That's really pushing the tin there... 

Having said that, I am also wondering/leaving options the other direction equally, as consideration.  Models could also have been erroneously opting to a convective induced center(s) too prodigiously and we could also see that low correct more W in tight - as in 24 hours lead. 

The Euro and UKmet coming west ... I don't see any guarantee they won't do so again this cycle this morning.  So... I'm bearing things in mind that it may be an omen either direction actually - not just for less..  

One thing is that there's decent synoptic support well west with this thing so we are going to see good snows away from the center. For far eastern areas too the H7 low is very spread out so the best forcing is well NW. 

That said - it's hard to get a widespread 1-2 feet with the storm fairly far offshore. 

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ariof

ariof

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

DOT does a good job. Roads will be snow covered, but I would not expect 6" ruts on them. Just snow packed. The T will probably have some delays, but should be ok. I would not expect a huge issue in the city on the roads. Good luck with the surgery. 

Massachusetts over-plows its roads. 1A in from Orient Heights to East Boston will be snow-covered if it's snowing hard but then you're basically in a tunnel all the way to MGH. The roads are flat so you should be fine. Just would take a bit of extra time, although for a storm of this magnitude most everything will close so there won't be much traffic. The roads really break down when snow surprises people at rush hour and the plows can't get ahead of it, but they'll be empty tomorrow. Just go slow and allow a bit of extra time.

The T generally runs during storms unless they do the whole governor orders the state shut down. (Well, and after the feet upon feet of snow in 2015 when it broke completely.) The Blue Line has a new fleet of cars and is less susceptible to breaking like the Red and Orange line cars, some of which date to the Nixon administration. The overhead in Eastie also seems to be less susceptible to tree damage compared with the Green Line. Bowdoin Station is about a five minute walk from MGH (which may be as close as whatever garage you can park in); at rush hour it would be faster than driving with traffic. Of course, if the state ever built the Red Blue connector, it would go right to MGH's doorstep. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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4 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

One thing is that there's decent synoptic support well west with this thing so we are going to see good snows away from the center. For far eastern areas too the H7 low is very spread out so the best forcing is well NW. 

That said - it's hard to get a widespread 1-2 feet with the storm fairly far offshore. 

Yeah...that too ... good point.  Classic need for a, "don't focus on the center of the storm"  

Either way, the shear immensity of this thing is problematic for the extent of the threat assessing - I can imagine.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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I actually think there could be an area of disappointment for a lot of SNE.

Max band will be right along the coast or near coastal front near Boston and down through the South Shore. Best low level warm advection etc. Probably the jackpot zone.

Second area is pretty far west with some nice 500-700hpa frontogenesis. In between I could see a bit of a sucker hole. 

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