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stormtracker

March 11-12 Storm - Model Discussion STORM MODE

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3 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

 

wait is he highlighting with lines a 20% chance of >=4" as where it will snow 2"+ and 40% chance of where it will snow 4"+?

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3 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

wait is he highlighting with lines a 20% chance of >=4" as where it will snow 2"+ and 40% chance of where it will snow 4"+?

Yeah I don’t get it. That map doesn’t have that purpose...that guy seems like a crock to me 

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

If you're going to try and "intelligently" insult people then the first thing you should do is take an English class and learn the difference between the word "lose" and "loose". Then get back to us. 

When is that tool finally going to get banned? Ridiculous.

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4 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

Yeah I don’t get it. That map doesn’t have that purpose...that guy seems like a crock to me 

there is so much garbage on twitter i wish people would be a bit more judicious when posting random tweets here

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1 hour ago, MD Snow said:

 

It's all about that lakes disturbance. It's coming in further east and not behind the system. That will push the coastal further off the coast at our latitude before pulling it back for the northeast. 

If it ain't the 50/50 low...its that. This storm has had so many obstacles!

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GEFS took a step back from 12z, which is expected as the OP did, but it isn't too shabby. Mean for DC is 3", in line with EPS. This one's close. Nowcasting should be interesting to say the least

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Please stop referencing the ensembles now. It’s been repeated that they don’t offer much more insight this close in

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34 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

HRDPS looks interesting enough

hrdps_mslp_pcpn_us_48.thumb.png.f6d2191e9d8fa2ca703423fc27bf3168.png

 

Not really. That precip near us is really lite. Look where the low is. I doubt we get a big snow from a low track 200 miles off the outer banks. 

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not really. That precip near us is really lite. Look where the low is. I doubt we get a big snow from a low track 200 miles off the outer banks. 

Agreed. Not a good look but at this point we have too many models to look at...what the hell is an Hrdps...might as well have the herpes model 

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So at this point...can a general conclusion be made? (And is a conclusion safe at this point?) Or will 0z kinda be the deciding factor? (I'd imagine you could only call it that if it wasn't too far off 18z. But if it were to show a hit...yeah, we'd be happy, but it would just be more chaos (unless the other models would lock onto such a scenario)

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8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So at this point...can a general conclusion be made? (And is a conclusion safe at this point?) Or will 0z kinda be the deciding factor? (I'd imagine you could only call it that if it wasn't too far off 18z. But if it were to show a hit...yeah, we'd be happy, but it would just be more chaos (unless the other models would lock onto such a scenario)

Unfortunately I think the writing has been on the wall for the last few days. I would love to be wrong and gladly eat my words..lol

but all models have zeroed in on central va. Occasionally they give us a glimmer of hope but that's about it.

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12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So at this point...can a general conclusion be made? (And is a conclusion safe at this point?) Or will 0z kinda be the deciding factor? (I'd imagine you could only call it that if it wasn't too far off 18z. But if it were to show a hit...yeah, we'd be happy, but it would just be more chaos (unless the other models would lock onto such a scenario)

I think we need to wait until 0z tho we’re getting into nam range so you’d want that to trend better as well.

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2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Unfortunately I think the writing has been on the wall for the last few days. I would love to be wrong and gladly eat my words..lol

but all models have zeroed in on central va. Occasionally they give us a glimmer of hope but that's about it.

IMO we still have at least 1 or 2 run cycles before determining main details such as track. Onset isn't till near 12z Monday (if at all), so we'll see.

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Taking from banter thread (ty @KingJWx)

4 minutes ago, KingJWx said:

DT posted his first guess. Looks too bullish for NOVA/Maryland, but whatever.

28700676_1632865426760709_5887257543135574424_o.jpg

 

And yeah, it does seem a tad bullish

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3 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

IMO we still have at least 1 or 2 run cycles before determining main details such as track. Onset isn't till near 12z Monday (if at all), so we'll see.

Trust me i would love to pull a hail Mary. 

Ive seen this look over the years too many times and know it usually results in snow south of us and northeast of us. Once the moisture bomb coming at us from the west disappeared I knew we were in trouble. It is what it is .I would love to be wrong and eat my words..lol

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36 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Trust me i would love to pull a hail Mary. 

Ive seen this look over the years too many times and know it usually results in snow south of us and northeast of us. Once the moisture bomb coming at us from the west disappeared I knew we were in trouble. It is what it is .I would love to be wrong and eat my words..lol

Only thing different with this storm is it hasnt happened yet.  I dont disagree with you but, guidance has been constantly shifting leading to no real conclusion.  Chances diminish greatly once west of 95 but 00z should either be the nail or the carrot for us. lol  Each having equal chances imo...which is unique  in itself.  

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Just now, poolz1 said:

Only thing different with this storm is it hasnt happened yet.  I dont disagree with you but, guidance has been constantly shifting leading to no real conclusion.  Chances diminish greatly once west of 95 but 00z should either be the nail or the carrot for us. lol  Each having equal chances imo...which is unique  in itself.  

If anything, this storm will be interesting to nowcast. Having a feeling at least one of us in this forum will be reporting parachutes falling from the sky, while one (or many) is experiencing cloudy skies

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--srefs suck-- 

They did increase precip from their 9z run to 15z run. Now get about .5" to the cities. Also siginificantly increased precip into Pa. Now get at least .25" everywhere except the extreme northeastern part.  

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12 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Light precip, temps 35-38 during entire storm, mid-day in mid-March, I’m out. See y’all next winter.

Bye!

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32 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

If anything, this storm will be interesting to nowcast. Having a feeling at least one of us in this forum will be reporting parachutes falling from the sky, while one (or many) is experiencing cloudy skies

It is having that look....I bet I can guess who will be reporting cloudy skies....

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