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2018 Short to Medium Range Severe Thread


tornadohunter
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
846 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHERN VERMILION COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  
* UNTIL 915 PM CDT  
  
* AT 846 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR GIFFORD, OR 12  
  MILES EAST OF RANTOUL, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.   
  
  SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.   
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.   
  
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
  POTOMAC AROUND 855 PM CDT.   
  RANKIN AROUND 900 PM CDT.   
  HOOPESTON AND ROSSVILLE AROUND 915 PM CDT.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1027 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0528 PM     TORNADO          4 SSE MAPLE PARK        41.85N 88.57W
06/26/2018                   KANE               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            VIDEO SHOWED A FEW VERY BRIEF SURFACE-BASED VORTICES THAT
            KICKED UP SOME WATER IN A FIELD SOUTHWEST OF THE PERRY
            ROAD AND MINER ROAD INTERSECTION. THESE ONLY LASTED A FEW
            SECONDS AND PRODUCED NO DAMAGE. DELAYED REPORT. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
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Chased two different times yesterday being so close to home. Initially went WNW after the first storm to move NE through Kane county that was outflow dominate the entire time I was on it from about NW of Kaneville to east of Burlington. Then ended up going back home only to go back out when new storms were developing south of ARR/I-88 coming northward. Let that ARR storm continue northward to Elburn, letting that go with eyes on the two smaller storms SW of ARR/hwy 30. Positioned SW of Big Rock, a little south of hwy 30 and lapsed the organizing low topped supercell (the southern storm of the two was the one to eventually take off.) It had a lot of good rising motion and inflow feeders into the updraft region and what looked like a little meso hand off early on as a new base and eventual lowering/wall cloud developed to the NNE of where I was, more so along the forward flank almost. I finally stopped lapsing and got back in my car as the left side of the wall cloud really began to spin. Hauling back north across hwy 30 and on a few gravel roads, the area of interest was a big bowl shape wall and the entire thing was spinning. I really believe if surface temperatures were a little warmer/steeper low level lapse rates, this storm would've put down a really sizable tornado as it had the look like it wanted to (the Manhattan storm I believe had slightly warmer surface temps and had better low level structure/clear slot and that was even closer to a really nice large cone tornado.) Anyways, I eventually got back to a north/south road (Dauberman rd) and continued north as really nice funnel formed as the meso hit the boundary and stretched that thing as much as it could. I was looking NW when I took the picture below, on Dauberman rd just south of Kaneville, IL. Another chaser was quite close and had video of ground contact/swirl circulations in a field next to him to confirm that it was a brief/weak tornado. All in all a cool little day and my first tornado in my home county. 

kaneville.jpg.f9e2617472ad86d62c52f83dcac536aa.jpg

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2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Classic ridge riding derecho today.

Yep.  Started way out in western NE about this time last night.  Still going (although not severe anymore) and entering northern Mississippi.  

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=200&interval=5&year=2018&month=6&day=28&hour=0&minute=30

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It is kind of interesting that there were two or more disconnected squall line events, that produced such a perfectly connected pattern of wind damage reports. This would probably fit the definition of a (couple of) derecho(es). I suppose the classic definition of derecho is contained in Johns and Hirt (1987) Not that I want to look this up and read this, but the paper citation is:

Johns, R. H., and W. D. Hirt, 1987: Derechos: widespread convectively induced windstorms. Wea. Forecasting, 2, 32-49.

po5RfFt.png

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32 minutes ago, Chinook said:

It is kind of interesting that there were two or more disconnected squall line events, that produced such a perfectly connected pattern of wind damage reports. This would probably fit the definition of a (couple of) derecho(es). I suppose the classic definition of derecho is contained in Johns and Hirt (1987) Not that I want to look this up and read this, but the paper citation is:

Johns, R. H., and W. D. Hirt, 1987: Derechos: widespread convectively induced windstorms. Wea. Forecasting, 2, 32-49.

po5RfFt.png

Found this definition on the SPC website:

"By definition, if the swath of wind damage extends for more than 250 miles (about 400 kilometers), includes wind gusts of at least 58 mph (93 km/h) along most of its length, and also includes several, well-separated 75 mph (121 km/h) or greater gusts, then the event may be classified as a derecho. "

I think that the North Dakota and Southern Illinois storms would be considered derechos under this definition. Certainly a very active day of severe weather

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Looking back at yesterday, should the SPC have given a moderate or high risk for wind damage in the areas that got the derecho(es)? You may think it's a dumb question. I suppose this may be an interestingly bad bust -- some 400-500 (300-400 filtered?) storm reports were in a marginal and/or slight risk yesterday, far away from the moderate risk in the north.

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1 hour ago, Chinook said:

Looking back at yesterday, should the SPC have given a moderate or high risk for wind damage in the areas that got the derecho(es)? You may think it's a dumb question. I suppose this may be an interestingly bad bust -- some 400-500 (300-400 filtered?) storm reports were in a marginal and/or slight risk yesterday, far away from the moderate risk in the north.

I have to agree, Once the Illinois one got going I was expecting an Enhanced at the least.

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SPC did a downright horrible job yesterday. Not only how they handled outlooks, but also watch issuance.

Goes to show how reliant on CAM’s they are. CAM’s showed absolutely nothing yesterday, even while the even was unfolding. The HRRR really didn’t catch on until around noon in showing anything.

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2 hours ago, Chinook said:

Looking back at yesterday, should the SPC have given a moderate or high risk for wind damage in the areas that got the derecho(es)? You may think it's a dumb question. I suppose this may be an interestingly bad bust -- some 400-500 (300-400 filtered?) storm reports were in a marginal and/or slight risk yesterday, far away from the moderate risk in the north.

In all fairness, it was a marginal setup that could have easily gone the other way. It was all dependent on mesoscale waves (which models always struggle to handle) that happened to overachieve.

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15 hours ago, snowlover2 said:

Don't know if yesterday's event can be called a derecho but it would have been ironic if it happened today being the anniversary of the 2012 derecho. That one was a beauty.

Also the 20th anniversary of the 6/29/1998 "Corn Belt Derecho."  (IA, most of IL, C/S IN, N KY).  Which occurred primarily south of the areas affected 14 years later on 6/29/2012.  That day SPC issued tornado watches in anticipation of the event.  I can't remember for sure but the one that was in E IA/western and central IL might have even been a PDS tornado watch (but don't quote me on that).  Many areas didn't have power restored until at least July 4th.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepages/jun291998page.htm

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