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tornadohunter

2018 Short to Medium Range Severe Thread

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With severe weather season just around the corner, i feel it would be good to have a thread to discuss short range events that dont deserve their own thread and medium range threats. 

3/17 is looking interesting. CFS has hinted at this for a couple days and now the GFS is starting to see it as well. 

 

 

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MO, IL, IN look somewhat interesting if we want to grasp at straws.  Models have been showing something in this time period for awhile  but location varies and it is still far out.   We need to get some good southerly flow and stop these nw flow regimes and New England noreasters.

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The GFS continues to show potential severe for next weekend. GFS likes the southern half of our subforum on saturday. 

Sunday shows a threat for Illinois. 

 

Euro is somewhat onboard but seems to be some timing differences to be resolved. 

sfctdew.conus.png

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Yes, the GFS strongly suggests that St. Patrick's Day weekend into early the following week should be watched closely. Of course the details on location and ceiling of a given day's event are changing wildly from run to run, but the general pattern has been consistent for several days now.

In fact, it brings another system behind that one for late in week-2, suggesting this western trough might be good for more than one potent system. Would love to see a look like the 06Z run has for hour 180 through 324 valid for sometime in May, preferably my vacation week.

 

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

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Yeah the pattern next weekend (specifically the 18th and 19th) is definitely beginning to catch my attention. Large warm sector being suggested with days of return flow and the potential for a seasonally strong trough to eject out of the SW. Plenty of ways for that to fall apart closer in though, but moisture looks to be available with quality mid level lapse rates (i.e. thermodynamics are generally a non-issue) assuming things come together.

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Based on 18z GFS and model trends I would say the PAH CWA from southern IL over to EVV has a good chance of svr on Monday March 19th.  Interesting change from the winter wx advisories/warnings in that area this Sunday March 11th.  

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New ERTAF prediction for the last two weeks of March shows above average possibilities for tornadoes in the lower and mid MS Valley on north to central IL and IN.  Pattern change anyone?

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Looks at recent GFS and especially Euro runs for this weekend -> :axe:

Just can't get anything going whatsoever apparently. Doesn't help that we aren't getting a lot of help from the polar jet.

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2 hours ago, Indystorm said:

If i have to wait for a sustained pattern shift I would rather have it in April/May/June when it's the height of tornado season and thermos are better to aid kinematics.

I do agree with this thought, but I don't want to see sustained strong -NAO, if it is closer to -1 that is one thing.

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The Euro/EPS for the last several runs has been indicating a large scale pattern that could result in a more widespread severe wx episode next week should it hold until then. Seems there is some potential for an unseasonably strong trough to eject at that time. The EPS mean last night had a sub-990 mb (yes, sub-990 mb) lee cyclone at 216 hours, which is pretty phenomenal for a 51 member mean that far out. Something to keep an eye on.

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36 minutes ago, andyhb said:

The Euro/EPS for the last several runs has been indicating a large scale pattern that could result in a more widespread severe wx episode next week should it hold until then. Seems there is some potential for an unseasonably strong trough to eject at that time. The EPS mean last night had a sub-990 mb (yes, sub-990 mb) lee cyclone at 216 hours, which is pretty phenomenal for a 51 member mean that far out. Something to keep an eye on.

100% bears watching. Large scale pattern is indicative of someone between the Rockies and GL/OV (including) getting nailed, it seems. Not sure it will all come together on Friday.. but to even speculate is just pointless. 

 

The EPS output is nothing short of ridiculous for a 50 member ensemble this far out. Whether it’s the plains or OV region that gets the worst of it (both?), time will tell..

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Yeah, things look to ramp up sooner than I'd anticipated given the pattern we've been stuck in. Even yesterday's action kind of came out of left field for me, although we never even sniffed the warm sector here in WI. A week prior I'd have told you no chance of any severe anywhere east of the Rockies through at least April 15.

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28 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

You’re gonna need a 60% hatched to impress Jeff nowadays, meanwhile here is a sounding off the euro.(I found it so don’t expect any more) It’s near sterling, IL

 

 

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1 hour ago, andyhb said:

Would be nice if I saw more than just statements about the Plains there.

That's all I'm going to say about that.

100% this, far too much mention of GFS without mentioning the Euro in that thread, you can't just ignore the Euro as if it doesn't exist.

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1 minute ago, snowlover2 said:

12z Euro with a 977mb low near North Platte NE at 12z next Friday.

Too amplified though, trough matures too quickly and thus the next day looks like a mess with an occluding surface low.

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I'd also watch if there's a lead system like the 12z Euro showed.  That can really up the threat level for a following system by priming the moisture pump so to speak, especially if there's a favorable synoptic evolution. 

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