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Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

NWS waffles so badly....no need to go as high as 15" at KBED earlier, nor 6" now....its like they oscillate from either end of the 20 percentile

Exactly what I have been talking about, WTH with this waffling model run to model run, it dilutes the message, not just NWS either

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Cold Miser

Cold Miser

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

NWS waffles so badly....no need to go as high as 15" at KBED earlier, nor 6" now....its like they oscillate from either end of the 20 percentile

With the exception of one or two events, BOX has been fairly good for my region this season. Some years they have whiffed a good 60%-70%.  It will be interesting to see how much taint, and dry slotting affect my region. 

No matter what modeling is referenced it seems that one thing is for sure...the cut-off between the have's and have-nots along I-95 is pretty sharp.  

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The EURO hasn't been what it used to be but I don't think you even want to discount it.  Especially trends east past few years.

You know what though, That keeps getting brought up, But the bottom line is, You still have to use it or blend it, On this board, Everyone still waits until it comes out if the other models are not favorable, I think most on here right now would be riding that Euro rather then some of the other guidance that are west, I mean, How many are riding the GFS and Nam, Raise your hand.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, dryslot said:

You know what though, That keeps getting brought up, But the bottom line is, You still have to use it or blend it, On this board, Everyone still waits until it comes out if the other models are not favorable, I think most on here right now would be riding that Euro rather then some of the other guidance that are west.

There's so much IMBY-ism at times too it's hard to figure it out.

I still think a blend is always the way to go which is why you don't outright toss.  The EPS was much better back into NY State than the EURO too.  

I think you always hedge east in coastal storms though until we start seeing years where these things go over BOS with some consistency haha.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
Just now, powderfreak said:

There's so much IMBY-ism at times too it's hard to figure it out.

I still think a blend is always the way to go which is why you don't outright toss.  The EPS was much better back into NY State than the EURO too.  

I think you always hedge east in coastal storms though until we start seeing years where these things go over BOS with some consistency haha.

At one point or another, Every model has been tossed on here, So that leaves none to use...................lol

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
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Posted
4 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Tip, you just shed some light on why I chose not to get invested in this thing from when you started this thread.  There will be places well north that do ok, but for the rest, I just hope they are not too hard on your juju and the "Tippy jinx", lol.  Euro, you're my only hope.

well... I don't know how what I discussed shed's light on "why" anything ...  the model run is doing what it is doing, ...there was no prior suggestion it would come unraveled, but it has.  so be it... 

we should point out ... that is possible in every quantum state of every molecule in the fluidity of the atmosphere at all times...  in other words, in the models at all times.

but the 06z is when all this really started...  The model abruptly halved the QPF for limited apparent reason on that run... I am not sure why...  then, at 12z it tried to bring 15% or so back...only to be warmer... now, this run is reasonable continuity of that 12z run...  But all that means is that in total, the last 24 hours is messing up the details enough to serve as a big distraction.. Continuity, despite the previous two days, went nuts. 

it ran with better consistency for some 6 to 8 cycles... before this last three started throwing monkey wrenches into the eye-popper plans.  but, the NAM is not a very good model because it does this kind of antic. I don't know where it suddenly become gospel... there are situations - different discussion - where it may tend to perform better.  

I would just stick with the Euro. I said this two days ago and I still mean it ... the model is not "that" bad.   So it was C ... C- on this last big nor'easter, okay... it's not infallible.  But, we are not in anything close to the same large scale synoptic paradigm that led to that event ... so there's no comparison...  thus, including the unfair/illogical assumption, what remains is that it's verification is superior...particularly inside of 4 days.

So the Euro is a 12 to 16" N and W of I-95 for all intents and purpose, and if it is wrong, ...it's wrong, but that's where my money is for now. 

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78Blizzard

78Blizzard

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

well... I don't know how what I discussed shed's light on "why" anything ...  the model run is doing what it is doing, ...there was no prior suggestion it would come unraveled, but it has.  so be it... 

we should point out ... that is possible in every quantum state of every molecule in the fluidity of the atmosphere at all times...  in other words, in the models at all times.

but the 06z is when all this really started...  The model abruptly halved the QPF for limited apparent reason on that run... I am not sure why...  then, at 12z it tried to bring 15% or so back...only to be warmer... now, this run is reasonable continuity of that 12z run...  But all that means is that in total, the last 24 hours is messing up the details enough to serve as a big distraction.. Continuity, despite the previous two days, went nuts. 

it ran with better consistency for some 6 to 8 cycles... before this last three started throwing monkey wrenches into the eye-popper plans.  but, the NAM is not a very good model because it does this kind of antic. I don't know where it suddenly become gospel... there are situations - different discussion - where it may tend to perform better.  

I would just stick with the Euro. I said this two days ago and I still mean it ... the model is not "that" bad.   So it was C ... C- on this last big nor'easter, okay... it's not infallible.  But, we are not in anything close to the same large scale synoptic paradigm that led to that event ... so there's no comparison...  thus, including the unfair/illogical assumption, what remains is that it's verification is superior...particularly inside of 4 days.

So the Euro is a 12 to 16" N and W of I-95 for all intents and purpose, and if it is wrong, ...it's wrong, but that's where my money is for now. 

Too bad the NWS is disregarding it.

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WthrJunkyME

WthrJunkyME

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

woa.. that's not light treading ... 

glad ur alright.   curious ...what was that like.  were you just fine then boom...  or were there warning signs - when it happened, what was the symptoms.  seems lots of heart issues in society all the sudden.  hmm

No warning signs, Tip.  Felt just fine!  Except, of course, that I knew and was prescribed blood pressure medication and stopped taking it because it made me sore.  “It’ll never happen to me” denial sort of thing.  10 pm I’m on the couch watching the news, dog next to me.  Get up to get dog a snack and my chest just felt tight, as if someone were sitting on it.  Hard to take a breath, I took some aspirin.  Woke up my wife, told her I must have some heartburn or something.  Then felt nauseous, tried to throw up, nothing.  But I felt immediately better, back to normal.  Though it came right back again and told my wife to drive me to emergency.  I was still actively having a heart attack when I arrived.

Anybody with heart issues, high cholesterol, etc. already know what I’m going to say.  If you have any of these problems and not resolving them like I failed to do, it’s just not worth it.  I can’t stand hospitals, I can’t stand being on medications and while I generally eat healthy, I eat what I want, when I want.  I especially don’t care to be lectured to, such as I’m doing right now! Those days are now over.  I now have to do what I’m told or I die, simple as that.  Were there warnings? Yes, but no immediate warning, just happened all of a sudden.  It was a foreign pain for me.

 

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kdxken

kdxken

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

With the exception of one or two events, BOX has been fairly good for my region this season. Some years they have whiffed a good 60%-70%.  It will be interesting to see how much taint, and dry slotting affect my region. 

No matter what modeling is referenced it seems that one thing is for sure...the cut-off between the have's and have-nots along I-95 is pretty sharp.  

They've been great here as well.

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