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Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Wonder if they're getting spooked by the persistence of the GFS now ... being hand-shaking with the NAM...  Euro is not infallible - and could it be too cold?  

Be that as it may or may not be, ...  the FOUS data is interesting.  It has a vertical temperature profile over Laguardia that would be all snow and about 14 or 15" at 10::1 ... meanwhile Logan?  

0

Well...maybe a glop inch before it cat paws the rest of the way.  

You can see why just using these FOUS number and not having to rely upon all these graphics...  The numbers indicate the wind goes from 70 deg at 41 kts sustained (middle boundary layer), then on the very next interval it's lazy ESE at all of 18.  That behavior while slackening off means the low pressure is pretty damn close near by...  THEN looking at the synoptic evolution and sure enough ...the low is carving pretty well NW of those runs yesterday. 

And so ... it seems when using the NAM this thing's ptype will come down to pretty much where the storm tracks... where ever it ultimately does, from ~ 20 or 30 mile NW and and point further west its snowing... ALB is now close to 16" on this run, in the FOUS QPF... It also explains why LGA and Logan are sort of climate switched per this storm, on this and actually the 12z versions...  

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Posted

BTV pretty much tossed the EURO from its forecast.

Not sure I've ever seen that.  Playing with fire.

"The guidance has come into better agreement and the solutions lie fairly clustered in regards to the low track, with a slight westward trend over the past couple of runs. The European model (ecmwf) continues to be a southern outlier and has generally been disregarded for this package. The 12z GFS was just a touch further west than the NAM and the Canadian, and thereby is a bit warmer. Have stayed close to a model blend to account for these small but potentially significant differences."

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

BTV pretty much tossed the EURO from its forecast.

Not sure I've ever seen that.  Playing with fire.

"The guidance has come into better agreement and the solutions lie fairly clustered in regards to the low track, with a slight westward trend over the past couple of runs. The European model (ecmwf) continues to be a southern outlier and has generally been disregarded for this package. The 12z GFS was just a touch further west than the NAM and the Canadian, and thereby is a bit warmer. Have stayed close to a model blend to account for these small but potentially significant differences."

Looks like an office full of imby weenies.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

BTV pretty much tossed the EURO from its forecast.

Not sure I've ever seen that.  Playing with fire.

"The guidance has come into better agreement and the solutions lie fairly clustered in regards to the low track, with a slight westward trend over the past couple of runs. The European model (ecmwf) continues to be a southern outlier and has generally been disregarded for this package. The 12z GFS was just a touch further west than the NAM and the Canadian, and thereby is a bit warmer. Have stayed close to a model blend to account for these small but potentially significant differences."

AWT? 

jk Ray, I just had to. 

Sticking to a UK type solution should work. I think we see the Messenger se ticks tonight from nammy and gfs. 

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dryslot

dryslot

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Posted
4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

BTV pretty much tossed the EURO from its forecast.

Not sure I've ever seen that.  Playing with fire.

"The guidance has come into better agreement and the solutions lie fairly clustered in regards to the low track, with a slight westward trend over the past couple of runs. The European model (ecmwf) continues to be a southern outlier and has generally been disregarded for this package. The 12z GFS was just a touch further west than the NAM and the Canadian, and thereby is a bit warmer. Have stayed close to a model blend to account for these small but potentially significant differences."

That's a bad recipe IMHO.

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78Blizzard

78Blizzard

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Wonder if they're getting spooked by the persistence of the GFS now ... being hand-shaking with the NAM...  Euro is not infallible - and could it be too cold?  

Be that as it may or may not be, ...  the FOUS data is interesting.  It has a vertical temperature profile over Laguardia that would be all snow and about 14 or 15" at 10::1 ... meanwhile Logan?  

0

Well...maybe a glop inch before it cat paws the rest of the way.  

You can see why just using these FOUS number and not having to rely upon all these graphics...  The numbers indicate the wind goes from 70 deg at 41 kts sustained (middle boundary layer), then on the very next interval it's lazy ESE at all of 18.  That behavior while slackening off means the low pressure is pretty damn close near by...  THEN looking at the synoptic evolution and sure enough ...the low is carving pretty well NW of those runs yesterday. 

And so ... it seems when using the NAM this thing's ptype will come down to pretty much where the storm tracks... where ever it ultimately does, from ~ 20 or 30 mile NW and and point further west its snowing... ALB is not close to 16" on this run, in the FOUS QPF... It also explains why LGA is and Logan are sort of climate switched per this storm, on this and actually the 12z versions...  

Tip, you just shed some light on why I chose not to get invested in this thing from when you started this thread.  There will be places well north that do ok, but for the rest, I just hope they are not too hard on your juju and the "Tippy jinx", lol.  Euro, you're my only hope.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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Posted
8 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Yeah.  This seemed to be what I was thinking and trying to get the discussion going on earlier.  Cutback all through CT as well.
I expect barely Warning criteria by tomorrow.

NWS waffles so badly....no need to go as high as 15" at KBED earlier, nor 6" now....its like they oscillate from either end of the 20 percentile

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