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Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Final call is 12-16 Nw of 84

8-12 South of 84 down to SW CT 

4-8 Se CT in New London County 

I do have a concern of BL in the valley so could see 6-8 there if that is in fact an issue 

I agree with that.  Nice job man, I think that's a reasonable call. 

I think you'd like the 3km NAM... like 10-12" for you and 4" in the valley due to BL warmth.  Very elevational on that product.

Looking at the 925mb temps, I'm leaning towards this being more elevational dependent than many are thinking at least there hasn't been a ton of talk about it.  Even up here.

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The 4 Seasons

The 4 Seasons

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Hoth said:

He's going 4-8" down here. Yikes. Thought I was solid for 10+. Still would think so with the expected track but who knows.

Solid for a 10+ in Hamden? Hopefuly the colder solutions verify and we can end up in the double digits but at the same time i dont think little to nothing is out of the question either. 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I agree with that.  Nice job man, I think that's a reasonable call. 

I think you'd like the 3km NAM... like 10-12" for you and 4" in the valley due to BL warmth.  Very elevational on that product.

Looking at the 925mb temps, I'm leaning towards this being more elevational dependent than many are thinking at least there hasn't been a ton of talk about it.  Even up here.

I’m just not convinced it’s an elevation setup . I think it will play a role on pavements , but if it’s thumping it doesn’t matter. I guess I’d knock off 2-4” lower due to that . 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I agree with that.  Nice job man, I think that's a reasonable call. 

I think you'd like the 3km NAM... like 10-12" for you and 4" in the valley due to BL warmth.  Very elevational on that product.

Looking at the 925mb temps, I'm leaning towards this being more elevational dependent than many are thinking at least there hasn't been a ton of talk about it.  Even up here.

People posted the 925 Euro maps, didn't seem to be any indication elevation played a role

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m just not convinced it’s an elevation setup . I think it will play a role on pavements , but if it’s thumping it doesn’t matter. I guess I’d knock off 2-4” lower due to that . 

- 2-4 because of pavement? lol isn't snow measured on a board?

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The good ole firehose 


The Details:  Primary axis of snow will be south of the region...
just entering southern New England at 12 UTC.  Have to watch coastal
areas in the morning with model sounding profiles showing the
potential for some ocean enhanced snow shower or perhaps drizzle
give saturated low levels.  Have boosted PoPs but will not mention
drizzle/freezing drizzle until confidence in this scenario grows.
Otherwise...have sped up snowfall arrival time an hour or two from
what was inherited with conditions rapidly deteriorating as
southeasterly low level jet strengthens ahead of strengthening low
pressure to the south.   This -4 to -5 sigma easterly jet will
result in what looks to be a "firehose" of heavy precipitation that
arrives over southern New Hampshire after 4pm with about a 6-9 hour
period of 1-3" per hour snowfall rates following this.  MUCAPE progs
indicate some potential for thundersnow perhaps sneaking into
coastal areas.  Thus...the 5pm-5am period looks the most dangerous
in terms of travel.  On Thursday...low pressure moves into the Gulf
of Maine while filling as it then slowly wobbles north and west
across eastern and northern Maine Thursday night.  Thus...expect all
areas to be snowing at daybreak with a gradual decrease in snowfall
intensity and coverage from south to north during the day as dynamic
forcing wanes and low pressure weakens.

Snow:  Have not made substantial changes to the snow forecast with
this package...with 12-18" for most locations...but focusing a band
in the climatologically favored area just inland from the coast /EEN-
SFM-LEW/ of a few inches more than this...reaching to around 20".
Biggest questions are along the immediate coast...with boundary
layer temperatures marginal through Wednesday afternoon and evening
before any mix collapses back to the coast after midnight.
Here...have some amounts near 6" along the immediate coast...quickly
ramping up as you head inland.  Some room for these to change as
well given that we/re still about 24 hours before things really get
going.

 

Nice.  I'll be there to report what's happening along the coast.  

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yes Sam was THE man, wouldn't be surprised at all if you are under blizzard warnings tomorrow

I think that would be a record here, That would end up being the 3rd one this season, I can't recall having that many warned before.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Looks like the 21Z RPM is pulling back east/cold soln from the 18Z cycle. Not that i trust that thing, but nice to see the westward trend stop and move the other way so close to the event. 

East trend is a real thing in this situation though, I may fail but after looking at everything I am 100% in the Euro UK EPS basket, all in

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ajisai

ajisai

Posted
Posted
Harvey sticking with the GFS. 1-2" Boston south, 2-4" 128 into Northern RI, 4-6" NW RI into Worcester/NH border. 6-12" NH/W MA lolli's to 12+ Monad's/Berks. 
Second time in a week he's not feeling the euro for Boston. I guess I'll take my scraps.
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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Looks like the 21Z RPM is pulling back east/cold soln from the 18Z cycle. Not that i trust that thing, but nice to see the westward trend stop and move the other way so close to the event. 

By 12z tomorrow upton will reverse course and put back their original forecast from today. You’d think weenies are controlling their switchboard. 

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The 4 Seasons

The 4 Seasons

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

By 12z tomorrow upton will reverse course and put back their original forecast from today. You’d think weenies are controlling their switchboard. 

I have that feeling as well. This is an difficult forecast to say the least in the transition, questionable zone. For NW CT its a lock for SE CT its pretty much game over with a few inches of slush.

These things can go either way, like the last storm, something tells me this ends up like Feb 5 2001 and catches everyone off guard tomorrow but well see.

Stuggling over the accumulation map right now, driving myself nuts, haha.

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snowman21

snowman21

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

By 12z tomorrow upton will reverse course and put back their original forecast from today. You’d think weenies are controlling their switchboard. 

What exactly has been the problem with their forecasts? It didn't seem like it has changed much at all today.

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