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Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
Just now, snowman21 said:

I believe you can just go to NCDC's site and get them. They've got the archive of pretty much everything that's ever come out of NWS or its predecessor the WBAN. The interface sucks, but when you have that volume of archival data it's not surprising.

I have an add-on for chrome that lets me download multiple links on a site. You can also use ftp but it takes like 10 minutes to order

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USCG RS

USCG RS

Posted
Posted
Eesh... scary.  Must have been a mild heart attack or...heh, face it - we probably wouldn't be having this discussion. I was asking about the 'warnings' because I read a MAYO thing on that, citing that most cases there was a symptom or two in the days or even weeks prior, but was typically ignored... I just wonder if they may be so subtle it was easy to do so or something. But, that sucks if you just stand up and then that's it... wtf
I'm a little nervous about that sort of thing.  Why?  Because I've seen loved ones close to me have triple b-passes and stints and stuff.   My step father had an attack while..duh duh duhnnn shoveling snow back in 1999 ... he's alive and well now thanks as you say, to modern medicine.  But prior generational he'd a been a gonner.  
My biological father just had a full cardio work up ..nuclear stress test even... at 75 years of age and was cleared, despite being on blood pressure meds for five decades.  Said he had the cardiac health and vascular venting of a much younger man. The rest of him? Yeah, piece of schit... so he complains, including his attitude, but that's all a different thing     However, his father (my g-dad) died abruptly at 84 from a massive event.  So although it's not altogether hugely prevalent in my family... it's not absent either. And, my family is after all American, and we are all unwitting, you, me, the users of this forum, and everyone they know... victims of the "Industrial Food Complex" ... which hasn't been altogether honest about what processing of simple carbs and sugars does to both BP and heart health.  
I don't drink or smoke.  I sleep, work out, and eat well, and religiously work out three to four times a week, rigorously.  I am not over weight.  My BP probably needs to be checked out seeing as my dad had it, and he never drank either.  They don't call it the 'silent killer' for nothing.  My hands get cold at my desk and I get posterior hypotension when I stand up too quickly...which is consistent with normal BP... but, instead of getting checked out I hate doctors and hospitals and suffer white-coat syndrome ... 
God...sometimes i think it's better if we were just born dolphins to dogs... they don't care because ignorance is bliss.  
You would be surprised how many people call ems and by the time I show up, they have been having an MI (heart attack) for several days. I hook up the EKG and see that they already have parts of the heart that are no longer functional.
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tavwtby

tavwtby

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CT Rain said:

Here's my forecast. 

DXotQEbXUAIJiSE.jpg

I like it...was arguing with a local who said your forecast was incorrect because of road temps??? And I tried to explain no one measures snow on a freaking road, but he kept going on about Rachel Frank.... I think your spot on here,

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STILL N OF PIKE

STILL N OF PIKE

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

If we end up mostly/all rain here...it'll be a tough pill to swallow.  Highs only climbed into the mid-upper 30s here today...a far cry from the putrid antecedent airmass before last week's storm.  

With out marine influence you would been in 40's like Nashua

Its not a great airmass, it's serviceable.

See how it stands up to deep easterly flow and no high anchored in Quebec.

BL flow from due east aint Gonna cut it

I see a good amount of slop

 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

With out marine influence you would been in 40's like Nashua

Its not a great airmass, it's serviceable.

See how it stands up to deep easterly flow and no high anchored in Quebec.

Dews were pretty low though... plenty of room to wet-bulb. 

Like ORH was upper 30s with dews 19-20F.

 

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Semper911

Semper911

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, USCG RS said:
1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

You would be surprised how many people call ems and by the time I show up, they have been having an MI (heart attack) for several days. I hook up the EKG and see that they already have parts of the heart that are no longer functional.

Nice to see a rescue swimmer on our board. They were always the best of the best when I was in. Thanks for your service, Coastie.

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DomNH

DomNH

Posted
Posted
Just now, powderfreak said:

Dews were pretty low though... plenty of room to wet-bulb. 

Like ORH was upper 30s with dews 19-20F.

 

Yeah, not in the same ballpark as the 57/35 high at ASH last Thursday. I mean this isn't a frigid airmass but it'll be more than serviceable inland with the thump we're getting. I wouldn't worry in the interior at all...even a little bit. 

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STILL N OF PIKE

STILL N OF PIKE

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, DomNH said:

Yeah, not in the same ballpark as the 57/35 high at ASH last Thursday. I mean this isn't a frigid airmass but it'll be more than serviceable inland with the thump we're getting. I wouldn't worry in the interior at all...even a little bit. 

What do you imagine ratio's to be in ASH

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Id Like some Mets to chime in on BL temps and ratios for 495 area. Im thinking they maybe bad below 4-500'

It's going to be all about precip rates. I always harp on it and it's annoying because it sounds like a hedge...but you have to lay out the scenarios. If we get that huge 0.75-1.0" qpf bomb in 6 hours then I have no issue with going 10 to 1 for the coastal plain of 495 from like Westford to LWM. But if we're only spitting out moderate 0.08 per hour type stuff in the bucket, then I think it could be a lot of 33F 7 to 1 stuff. I think we will have a good idea tonight. I'd like to see less dryslot punching through so quickly on the amped guidance. Euro type guidance is really nice in prolonging the midlevel goods before finally drying out. 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Unlike last time ORH looks good to go

Under 400'500' ...whats Ur take pf

I'm looking around at the temps... what's interesting to me is ORH had a high of 39F with afternoon dews at 19-20F like the last post stated.  However, now at 7pm it is 30/20 at ORH.  So they were able to radiate or cool with lack of insolation down below freezing without the dew point blinking.  I'm not sure how that happens honestly unless lower dews are being fed into the region.  They lost 9F from this afternoon without any change in dew point.  That's a very good sign IMO.

The extended HRRR radar product showed the CT Valley starting as rain and then flipping over to snow within two hours as temps went from like 36-37F to 33-34F... while the ORH hills are 30-32F.  That's why I think there's some elevation dependency to this.

Now that's not to say that it is raining in the lower elevations, not at all.  But I know Will mentioned it earlier, there is certainly a ratio difference between 33-34F and 30F.  But if you are getting 1/4sm +SN then you're going to 32/32 even on the valley floor, IMO. 

I guess I would say if precip is lighter or you are between stronger rad echoes the lowest areas of like 100-400ft could conceivably be 33-34F in SN/-SN while its 31-32F in +SN.  Who knows though, if the EURO products are correct, even the lowest elevations are going to be 31-32F regardless of precip intensity while the hills are 20s.

 

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Hoth

Hoth

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Below 30F here at the moment.  A much better setup for snow than last week.  We don’t have much in these hills but we have some elevation.    Would love a 20” event. Haven’t had one since Oct 2011.   I’m thinking 14-18” IMBY 

You didn't crack 20" in '13?

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STILL N OF PIKE

STILL N OF PIKE

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's going to be all about precip rates. I always harp on it and it's annoying because it sounds like a hedge...but you have to lay out the scenarios. If we get that huge 0.75-1.0" qpf bomb in 6 hours then I have no issue with going 10 to 1 for the coastal plain of 495 from like Westford to LWM. But if we're only spitting out moderate 0.08 per hour type stuff in the bucket, then I think it could be a lot of 33F 7 to 1 stuff. I think we will have a good idea tonight. I'd like to see less dryslot punching through so quickly on the amped guidance. Euro type guidance is really nice in prolonging the midlevel goods before finally drying out. 

This man should never pay for food or drink at gtg's

Thank you

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STILL N OF PIKE

STILL N OF PIKE

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I'm looking around at the temps... what's interesting to me is ORH had a high of 39F with afternoon dews at 19-20F like the last post stated.  However, now at 7pm it is 30/20 at ORH.  So they were able to radiate or cool with lack of insolation down below freezing without the dew point blinking.  I'm not sure how that happens honestly unless lower dews are being fed into the region.  They lost 9F from this afternoon without any change in dew point.  That's a very good sign IMO.

The extended HRRR radar product showed the CT Valley starting as rain and then flipping over to snow within two hours as temps went from like 36-37F to 33-34F... while the ORH hills are 30-32F.  That's why I think there's some elevation dependency to this.

Now that's not to say that it is raining in the lower elevations, not at all.  But I know Will mentioned it earlier, there is certainly a ratio difference between 33-34F and 30F.  But if you are getting 1/4sm +SN then you're going to 32/32 even on the valley floor, IMO. 

I guess I would say if precip is lighter or you are between stronger rad echoes the lowest areas of like 100-400ft could conceivably be 33-34F in SN/-SN while its 31-32F in +SN.  Who knows though, if the EURO products are correct, even the lowest elevations are going to be 31-32F regardless of precip intensity while the hills are 20s.

 

I really enjoy your input and you basically said the same as Will. Thanks.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I'm looking around at the temps... what's interesting to me is ORH had a high of 39F with afternoon dews at 19-20F like the last post stated.  However, now at 7pm it is 30/20 at ORH.  So they were able to radiate or cool with lack of insolation down below freezing without the dew point blinking.  I'm not sure how that happens honestly unless lower dews are being fed into the region.  They lost 9F from this afternoon without any change in dew point.  That's a very good sign IMO.

The extended HRRR radar product showed the CT Valley starting as rain and then flipping over to snow within two hours as temps went from like 36-37F to 33-34F... while the ORH hills are 30-32F.  That's why I think there's some elevation dependency to this.

Now that's not to say that it is raining in the lower elevations, not at all.  But I know Will mentioned it earlier, there is certainly a ratio difference between 33-34F and 30F.  But if you are getting 1/4sm +SN then you're going to 32/32 even on the valley floor, IMO. 

I guess I would say if precip is lighter or you are between stronger rad echoes the lowest areas of like 100-400ft could conceivably be 33-34F in SN/-SN while its 31-32F in +SN.  Who knows though, if the EURO products are correct, even the lowest elevations are going to be 31-32F regardless of precip intensity while the hills are 20s.

 

I’d rather not be in the 20’s though I’m fairly certain this ends up a powdery esque event with 28.1 being the common temp during the blitz 

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I'm looking around at the temps... what's interesting to me is ORH had a high of 39F with afternoon dews at 19-20F like the last post stated.  However, now at 7pm it is 30/20 at ORH.  So they were able to radiate or cool with lack of insolation down below freezing without the dew point blinking.  I'm not sure how that happens honestly unless lower dews are being fed into the region.  They lost 9F from this afternoon without any change in dew point.  That's a very good sign IMO.

The extended HRRR radar product showed the CT Valley starting as rain and then flipping over to snow within two hours as temps went from like 36-37F to 33-34F... while the ORH hills are 30-32F.  That's why I think there's some elevation dependency to this.

Now that's not to say that it is raining in the lower elevations, not at all.  But I know Will mentioned it earlier, there is certainly a ratio difference between 33-34F and 30F.  But if you are getting 1/4sm +SN then you're going to 32/32 even on the valley floor, IMO. 

I guess I would say if precip is lighter or you are between stronger rad echoes the lowest areas of like 100-400ft could conceivably be 33-34F in SN/-SN while its 31-32F in +SN.  Who knows though, if the EURO products are correct, even the lowest elevations are going to be 31-32F regardless of precip intensity while the hills are 20s.

 

Why does the amount of moisture in the air have to change just due to the sun setting? It’s not like you’re evaporationally cooling.

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