Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[Damage In Tolland]

It closes sooner, but it also kicks east farther south. Big move to Euro 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

Captures and closes off sNJ again... this is a bombs away Philly-NYC run... but trough squashed a bit more and may kick this east sooner than 12z, similar to last night's 0z run... actually looks cooler in SNE thru 30hr

H5 is a bit more elongated than 12z...this is the trend that hopefully continues toward the Euro....this run verbatim won't help much, but I expect that trend to continue.

[WxBlue]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

H5 Closes off over Atlantic city.

Definitely did that a lot earlier than 12z run.

[Hoth]

53 minutes ago, StormSurge said:

Hoth, Ginx, any chance for me on the rock to see flakes? My expectations are extremely low.

Boy, I'll defer to Ginx on that one. Suspect you play with the dry slot for a time, but not sure about snow. BTW, how did the island fare last weekend? Any wind/power problems?

[Damage In Tolland]

You guys on the line or in dry slot area out east.. you want earlier close off to shunt east  . Stall her a bit farther south 

[TalcottWx]

NAM looks like an improvement to me

[dryslot]

This is going to be the congrats dendrite run.

[CoastalWx]

 You know the other thing I kind of thought of was a pretty good gradient within the city of Boston. I could see something like Logan airport getting a sloppy inch or two at the end, whereas west roxbury or Allston could have several inches. 

[StormSurge]

3 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Boy, I'll defer to Ginx on that one. Suspect you play with the dry slot for a time, but not sure about snow. BTW, how did the island fare last weekend? Any wind/power problems?

Thanks. 

No issues at all. Power stayed on the whole time. Tides were crazy-high but nothing really out of the ordinary.

[TalcottWx]

NAM still blows though. That is unfortunate. I mean it's the slightest of improvements.

[TalcottWx]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 You know the other thing I kind of thought of was a pretty good gradient within the city of Boston. I could see something like Logan airport getting a sloppy inch or two at the end, whereas west roxbury or Allston could have several inches. 

Stop

[78Blizzard]

925 0C line still way west on this run at hr 33.

[WxBlue]

That's a hell of dry slot over SE MA.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

925 0C line still way west on this run at hr 33.

Looks further west actually

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

NAM still blows though. That is unfortunate. I mean it's the slightest of improvements.

It will cave...prob 00z or 06z tonight...or somewhat on both...it's not going to end up that zonked.

[jbenedet]

There must be a black hole or something over SE MA. How many storms traversed that area this season? Nuts...

[WintersComing]

When does Reggie run again?  Be interesting to see if it stands by the Euro or not.

[Baroclinic Zone]

For fun, here are the last 6 runs of the NAM.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, jbenedet said:

There must be a black hole or something over SE MA. How many storms traversed that area this season? Nuts...

Over climo for the season for snow so nothing lost here.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, WintersComing said:

When does Reggie run again?  Be interesting to see if it stands by the Euro or not.

In about 30-35 min,.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Btv wrf went nw at 12z after 3 consistent runs

Took L.P to Newport Ne to GHG. Tight Winfield around the low. 35F temp (isotherm)was pushed about 10 miles Nw

 

[CoastalWx]

 The NAM, will most certainly cave to a point. You aren’t going to beat the  euro and it’s ensembles like that. 

[DFRI]

BOX looks to be cutting back in RI

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

 The NAM, will most certainly cave to a point. You aren’t going to beat the  euro and it’s ensembles like that. 

I consider these runs the "lets jackpot Caldwell, NJ before January 2015 and February 2013" type runs.

 

If it scores the coup, then big kudos, but I ain't putting my money on it.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 The NAM, will most certainly cave to a point. You aren’t going to beat the  euro and it’s ensembles like that. 

With thermals or LP

[TalcottWx]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Btv wrf went nw at 12z after 3 consistent runs

Took L.P to Newport Ne to GHG. Tight Winfield around the low. 35F temp (isotherm)was pushed about 10 miles Nw

 

Used to like that model. I have stopped using it. 

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, DFRI said:

BOX looks to be cutting back in RI

Cutback here too.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

With thermals or LP

Referring to LP.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

With thermals or LP

Prob both....Euro will likely come NW a little too...but NAM will cave on both counts. I don't think it will track over RI into BOS, and thus the thermals are going to collapse SE too.

[TalcottWx]

3 minutes ago, DFRI said:

BOX looks to be cutting back in RI

Horror show. Absolute back alley coat hanger