Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    18,641
    Total Members
    25,819
    Most Online
    Donut Hole
    Newest Member
    Donut Hole
    Joined

Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

Recommended Posts

powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, dryslot said:

You know what though, That keeps getting brought up, But the bottom line is, You still have to use it or blend it, On this board, Everyone still waits until it comes out if the other models are not favorable, I think most on here right now would be riding that Euro rather then some of the other guidance that are west.

There's so much IMBY-ism at times too it's hard to figure it out.

I still think a blend is always the way to go which is why you don't outright toss.  The EPS was much better back into NY State than the EURO too.  

I think you always hedge east in coastal storms though until we start seeing years where these things go over BOS with some consistency haha.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
Just now, powderfreak said:

There's so much IMBY-ism at times too it's hard to figure it out.

I still think a blend is always the way to go which is why you don't outright toss.  The EPS was much better back into NY State than the EURO too.  

I think you always hedge east in coastal storms though until we start seeing years where these things go over BOS with some consistency haha.

At one point or another, Every model has been tossed on here, So that leaves none to use...................lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
  • Author
Posted
4 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Tip, you just shed some light on why I chose not to get invested in this thing from when you started this thread.  There will be places well north that do ok, but for the rest, I just hope they are not too hard on your juju and the "Tippy jinx", lol.  Euro, you're my only hope.

well... I don't know how what I discussed shed's light on "why" anything ...  the model run is doing what it is doing, ...there was no prior suggestion it would come unraveled, but it has.  so be it... 

we should point out ... that is possible in every quantum state of every molecule in the fluidity of the atmosphere at all times...  in other words, in the models at all times.

but the 06z is when all this really started...  The model abruptly halved the QPF for limited apparent reason on that run... I am not sure why...  then, at 12z it tried to bring 15% or so back...only to be warmer... now, this run is reasonable continuity of that 12z run...  But all that means is that in total, the last 24 hours is messing up the details enough to serve as a big distraction.. Continuity, despite the previous two days, went nuts. 

it ran with better consistency for some 6 to 8 cycles... before this last three started throwing monkey wrenches into the eye-popper plans.  but, the NAM is not a very good model because it does this kind of antic. I don't know where it suddenly become gospel... there are situations - different discussion - where it may tend to perform better.  

I would just stick with the Euro. I said this two days ago and I still mean it ... the model is not "that" bad.   So it was C ... C- on this last big nor'easter, okay... it's not infallible.  But, we are not in anything close to the same large scale synoptic paradigm that led to that event ... so there's no comparison...  thus, including the unfair/illogical assumption, what remains is that it's verification is superior...particularly inside of 4 days.

So the Euro is a 12 to 16" N and W of I-95 for all intents and purpose, and if it is wrong, ...it's wrong, but that's where my money is for now. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
78Blizzard

78Blizzard

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

well... I don't know how what I discussed shed's light on "why" anything ...  the model run is doing what it is doing, ...there was no prior suggestion it would come unraveled, but it has.  so be it... 

we should point out ... that is possible in every quantum state of every molecule in the fluidity of the atmosphere at all times...  in other words, in the models at all times.

but the 06z is when all this really started...  The model abruptly halved the QPF for limited apparent reason on that run... I am not sure why...  then, at 12z it tried to bring 15% or so back...only to be warmer... now, this run is reasonable continuity of that 12z run...  But all that means is that in total, the last 24 hours is messing up the details enough to serve as a big distraction.. Continuity, despite the previous two days, went nuts. 

it ran with better consistency for some 6 to 8 cycles... before this last three started throwing monkey wrenches into the eye-popper plans.  but, the NAM is not a very good model because it does this kind of antic. I don't know where it suddenly become gospel... there are situations - different discussion - where it may tend to perform better.  

I would just stick with the Euro. I said this two days ago and I still mean it ... the model is not "that" bad.   So it was C ... C- on this last big nor'easter, okay... it's not infallible.  But, we are not in anything close to the same large scale synoptic paradigm that led to that event ... so there's no comparison...  thus, including the unfair/illogical assumption, what remains is that it's verification is superior...particularly inside of 4 days.

So the Euro is a 12 to 16" N and W of I-95 for all intents and purpose, and if it is wrong, ...it's wrong, but that's where my money is for now. 

Too bad the NWS is disregarding it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
kdxken

kdxken

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

With the exception of one or two events, BOX has been fairly good for my region this season. Some years they have whiffed a good 60%-70%.  It will be interesting to see how much taint, and dry slotting affect my region. 

No matter what modeling is referenced it seems that one thing is for sure...the cut-off between the have's and have-nots along I-95 is pretty sharp.  

They've been great here as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...