Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[CoastalWx]

 You know the other thing I kind of thought of was a pretty good gradient within the city of Boston. I could see something like Logan airport getting a sloppy inch or two at the end, whereas west roxbury or Allston could have several inches. 

[StormSurge]

3 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Boy, I'll defer to Ginx on that one. Suspect you play with the dry slot for a time, but not sure about snow. BTW, how did the island fare last weekend? Any wind/power problems?

Thanks. 

No issues at all. Power stayed on the whole time. Tides were crazy-high but nothing really out of the ordinary.

[TalcottWx]

NAM still blows though. That is unfortunate. I mean it's the slightest of improvements.

[TalcottWx]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 You know the other thing I kind of thought of was a pretty good gradient within the city of Boston. I could see something like Logan airport getting a sloppy inch or two at the end, whereas west roxbury or Allston could have several inches. 

Stop

[78Blizzard]

925 0C line still way west on this run at hr 33.

[WxBlue]

That's a hell of dry slot over SE MA.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

925 0C line still way west on this run at hr 33.

Looks further west actually

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

NAM still blows though. That is unfortunate. I mean it's the slightest of improvements.

It will cave...prob 00z or 06z tonight...or somewhat on both...it's not going to end up that zonked.

[jbenedet]

There must be a black hole or something over SE MA. How many storms traversed that area this season? Nuts...

[WintersComing]

When does Reggie run again?  Be interesting to see if it stands by the Euro or not.

[Baroclinic Zone]

For fun, here are the last 6 runs of the NAM.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, jbenedet said:

There must be a black hole or something over SE MA. How many storms traversed that area this season? Nuts...

Over climo for the season for snow so nothing lost here.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, WintersComing said:

When does Reggie run again?  Be interesting to see if it stands by the Euro or not.

In about 30-35 min,.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Btv wrf went nw at 12z after 3 consistent runs

Took L.P to Newport Ne to GHG. Tight Winfield around the low. 35F temp (isotherm)was pushed about 10 miles Nw

 

[CoastalWx]

 The NAM, will most certainly cave to a point. You aren’t going to beat the  euro and it’s ensembles like that. 

[DFRI]

BOX looks to be cutting back in RI

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

 The NAM, will most certainly cave to a point. You aren’t going to beat the  euro and it’s ensembles like that. 

I consider these runs the "lets jackpot Caldwell, NJ before January 2015 and February 2013" type runs.

 

If it scores the coup, then big kudos, but I ain't putting my money on it.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 The NAM, will most certainly cave to a point. You aren’t going to beat the  euro and it’s ensembles like that. 

With thermals or LP

[TalcottWx]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Btv wrf went nw at 12z after 3 consistent runs

Took L.P to Newport Ne to GHG. Tight Winfield around the low. 35F temp (isotherm)was pushed about 10 miles Nw

 

Used to like that model. I have stopped using it. 

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, DFRI said:

BOX looks to be cutting back in RI

Cutback here too.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

With thermals or LP

Referring to LP.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

With thermals or LP

Prob both....Euro will likely come NW a little too...but NAM will cave on both counts. I don't think it will track over RI into BOS, and thus the thermals are going to collapse SE too.

[TalcottWx]

3 minutes ago, DFRI said:

BOX looks to be cutting back in RI

Horror show. Absolute back alley coat hanger

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Cutback here too.

 Went even higher up this way.

[dryslot]

That Nam run was not as robust as the 12z run.

[DavisStraight]

17 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

For fun, here are the last 6 runs of the NAM.

That's nuts, I've oscillated between 5-6 in to close to 20.

[Typhoon Tip]

Wonder if they're getting spooked by the persistence of the GFS now ... being hand-shaking with the NAM...  Euro is not infallible - and could it be too cold?  

Be that as it may or may not be, ...  the FOUS data is interesting.  It has a vertical temperature profile over Laguardia that would be all snow and about 14 or 15" at 10::1 ... meanwhile Logan?  

0

Well...maybe a glop inch before it cat paws the rest of the way.  

You can see why just using these FOUS number and not having to rely upon all these graphics...  The numbers indicate the wind goes from 70 deg at 41 kts sustained (middle boundary layer), then on the very next interval it's lazy ESE at all of 18.  That behavior while slackening off means the low pressure is pretty damn close near by...  THEN looking at the synoptic evolution and sure enough ...the low is carving pretty well NW of those runs yesterday. 

And so ... it seems when using the NAM this thing's ptype will come down to pretty much where the storm tracks... where ever it ultimately does, from ~ 20 or 30 mile NW and and point further west its snowing... ALB is now close to 16" on this run, in the FOUS QPF... It also explains why LGA and Logan are sort of climate switched per this storm, on this and actually the 12z versions...  

[Cold Miser]

16 minutes ago, DFRI said:

BOX looks to be cutting back in RI

Yeah.  This seemed to be what I was thinking and trying to get the discussion going on earlier.  Cutback all through CT as well.
I expect barely Warning criteria by tomorrow.

[Whineminster]

A little blob of 18 to 24 over my head....although we know this will keep trending warmer....all guidance is.... so I'm going with 6", no joke

[powderfreak]

BTV pretty much tossed the EURO from its forecast.

Not sure I've ever seen that.  Playing with fire.

"The guidance has come into better agreement and the solutions lie fairly clustered in regards to the low track, with a slight westward trend over the past couple of runs. The European model (ecmwf) continues to be a southern outlier and has generally been disregarded for this package. The 12z GFS was just a touch further west than the NAM and the Canadian, and thereby is a bit warmer. Have stayed close to a model blend to account for these small but potentially significant differences."