HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Cutback here too. Went even higher up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 That Nam run was not as robust as the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 17 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: For fun, here are the last 6 runs of the NAM. That's nuts, I've oscillated between 5-6 in to close to 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 6, 2018 Author Share Posted March 6, 2018 Wonder if they're getting spooked by the persistence of the GFS now ... being hand-shaking with the NAM... Euro is not infallible - and could it be too cold? Be that as it may or may not be, ... the FOUS data is interesting. It has a vertical temperature profile over Laguardia that would be all snow and about 14 or 15" at 10::1 ... meanwhile Logan? 0 Well...maybe a glop inch before it cat paws the rest of the way. You can see why just using these FOUS number and not having to rely upon all these graphics... The numbers indicate the wind goes from 70 deg at 41 kts sustained (middle boundary layer), then on the very next interval it's lazy ESE at all of 18. That behavior while slackening off means the low pressure is pretty damn close near by... THEN looking at the synoptic evolution and sure enough ...the low is carving pretty well NW of those runs yesterday. And so ... it seems when using the NAM this thing's ptype will come down to pretty much where the storm tracks... where ever it ultimately does, from ~ 20 or 30 mile NW and and point further west its snowing... ALB is now close to 16" on this run, in the FOUS QPF... It also explains why LGA and Logan are sort of climate switched per this storm, on this and actually the 12z versions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 16 minutes ago, DFRI said: BOX looks to be cutting back in RI Yeah. This seemed to be what I was thinking and trying to get the discussion going on earlier. Cutback all through CT as well. I expect barely Warning criteria by tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 A little blob of 18 to 24 over my head....although we know this will keep trending warmer....all guidance is.... so I'm going with 6", no joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 BTV pretty much tossed the EURO from its forecast. Not sure I've ever seen that. Playing with fire. "The guidance has come into better agreement and the solutions lie fairly clustered in regards to the low track, with a slight westward trend over the past couple of runs. The European model (ecmwf) continues to be a southern outlier and has generally been disregarded for this package. The 12z GFS was just a touch further west than the NAM and the Canadian, and thereby is a bit warmer. Have stayed close to a model blend to account for these small but potentially significant differences." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I consider these runs the "lets jackpot Caldwell, NJ before January 2015 and February 2013" type runs. If it scores the coup, then big kudos, but I ain't putting my money on it. Exactly. BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Anyone outside of 495/N of the Pike shouldn't expect less than double digits. Locked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 37 minutes ago, dryslot said: This is going to be the congrats dendrite run. Congrats ALB area it looks like for jackpot. NAM spreads the love each run to a different spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: BTV pretty much tossed the EURO from its forecast. Not sure I've ever seen that. Playing with fire. "The guidance has come into better agreement and the solutions lie fairly clustered in regards to the low track, with a slight westward trend over the past couple of runs. The European model (ecmwf) continues to be a southern outlier and has generally been disregarded for this package. The 12z GFS was just a touch further west than the NAM and the Canadian, and thereby is a bit warmer. Have stayed close to a model blend to account for these small but potentially significant differences." Looks like an office full of imby weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: BTV pretty much tossed the EURO from its forecast. Not sure I've ever seen that. Playing with fire. "The guidance has come into better agreement and the solutions lie fairly clustered in regards to the low track, with a slight westward trend over the past couple of runs. The European model (ecmwf) continues to be a southern outlier and has generally been disregarded for this package. The 12z GFS was just a touch further west than the NAM and the Canadian, and thereby is a bit warmer. Have stayed close to a model blend to account for these small but potentially significant differences." AWT? jk Ray, I just had to. Sticking to a UK type solution should work. I think we see the Messenger se ticks tonight from nammy and gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Yeah. This seemed to be what I was thinking and trying to get the discussion going on earlier. Cutback all through CT as well. I expect barely Warning criteria by tomorrow. tossing the EURO and Ukie? , bold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, DomNH said: Anyone outside of 495/N of the Pike shouldn't expect less than double digits. Locked. Most of CT except SE is expecting double digits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks like an office full of imby weenies. lol. Who knows. Not sure anyone can say for sure. I don't know if you ever discount it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: BTV pretty much tossed the EURO from its forecast. Not sure I've ever seen that. Playing with fire. "The guidance has come into better agreement and the solutions lie fairly clustered in regards to the low track, with a slight westward trend over the past couple of runs. The European model (ecmwf) continues to be a southern outlier and has generally been disregarded for this package. The 12z GFS was just a touch further west than the NAM and the Canadian, and thereby is a bit warmer. Have stayed close to a model blend to account for these small but potentially significant differences." That's a bad recipe IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: That's a bad recipe IMHO. I disregard the package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: tossing the EURO and Ukie? , bold Still worth the discussion is all. There has to be a compromise. How has the Euro been this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 26 minutes ago, DFRI said: BOX looks to be cutting back in RI I'll take my 16-19" and lock it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Most of CT except SE is expecting double digits I haven't looked at CT close enough. I just don't want Whiteminster to jump off a bridge because his town is going to get croaked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Lot of recent bias around these parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, Cold Miser said: Still worth the discussion is all. There has to be a compromise. How has the Euro been this season? you said you expect to be below warning criteria ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Wonder if they're getting spooked by the persistence of the GFS now ... being hand-shaking with the NAM... Euro is not infallible - and could it be too cold? Be that as it may or may not be, ... the FOUS data is interesting. It has a vertical temperature profile over Laguardia that would be all snow and about 14 or 15" at 10::1 ... meanwhile Logan? 0 Well...maybe a glop inch before it cat paws the rest of the way. You can see why just using these FOUS number and not having to rely upon all these graphics... The numbers indicate the wind goes from 70 deg at 41 kts sustained (middle boundary layer), then on the very next interval it's lazy ESE at all of 18. That behavior while slackening off means the low pressure is pretty damn close near by... THEN looking at the synoptic evolution and sure enough ...the low is carving pretty well NW of those runs yesterday. And so ... it seems when using the NAM this thing's ptype will come down to pretty much where the storm tracks... where ever it ultimately does, from ~ 20 or 30 mile NW and and point further west its snowing... ALB is not close to 16" on this run, in the FOUS QPF... It also explains why LGA is and Logan are sort of climate switched per this storm, on this and actually the 12z versions... Tip, you just shed some light on why I chose not to get invested in this thing from when you started this thread. There will be places well north that do ok, but for the rest, I just hope they are not too hard on your juju and the "Tippy jinx", lol. Euro, you're my only hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 8 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Yeah. This seemed to be what I was thinking and trying to get the discussion going on earlier. Cutback all through CT as well. I expect barely Warning criteria by tomorrow. NWS waffles so badly....no need to go as high as 15" at KBED earlier, nor 6" now....its like they oscillate from either end of the 20 percentile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Yeah. This seemed to be what I was thinking and trying to get the discussion going on earlier. Cutback all through CT as well. I expect barely Warning criteria by tomorrow. that's a huge change downward from this a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 There will definitely be an elevation dependent element to this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: you said you expect to be below warning criteria ? 3K gives Garth 4 inches over his warning criteria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, DomNH said: I haven't looked at CT close enough. I just don't want Whiteminster to jump off a bridge because his town is going to get croaked. If he does it'll be a soft landing in 18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: There will definitely be an elevation dependent element to this storm. No doubt...esp with ratios too...someone getting 30-31F heavy snow will get it better than 33F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: 3K gives Garth 4 inches over his warning criteria We will see. I am thinking 3-6 max now. Nothing to sneeze at and will put me over 40". It's March, and still a winter month which is good by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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