Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    18,642
    Total Members
    25,819
    Most Online
    Donut Hole
    Newest Member
    Donut Hole
    Joined

Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

Recommended Posts

HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted

I'm going cautious here due to possible low ratios, valley shadow, marginal temps, lack of elevation etc.  

8-12" here to Brattleboro.  6-10" Springfield to Northampton.  Maybe I'm wrong and we get the 14-16" BOX is calling for but still caution flags flying.  I could see N Quabbin area near Dave doubling some of the Valley amounts but we'll see. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted

Very stressed about Boston metro forecast, and I don't envy pro Mets tonight. Want to see an east tick on the 0z NAM.

We're all expecting the gravitational pull of the Euro, but we want to see that soon.

We could use some real-time ROAB H5 comparisons tonight and I'll take a swing if I have time.

To ensure anything more than 1-3" like NAM / rain like GFS for Boston, I think we want to see:

- anything that leads to later capture further east: trough and shortwave energy shooting out further east: if you trend 12z 3/5 - 0z 3/6 - 12z 3/6 Euro runs, the trend has been to dig the northern stream trough less southwest by 12z Wed, so ultimately the low gets captured closer to the NJ coast... we want to reverse that trend towards a more southwest digging trough by 12z Wed so that the trough swings and overshoots further east, and the system gets captured and tugs further east

- less of a ridge over the Atlantic? Euro in past 24 hrs has trended towards greater ridge, and may be inhibiting further eastward movement of system

- any evidence of greater blocking

Feel free to revise/add anything to the list.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
  • Author
Posted
1 hour ago, USCG RS said:
1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:
Eesh... scary.  Must have been a mild heart attack or...heh, face it - we probably wouldn't be having this discussion. I was asking about the 'warnings' because I read a MAYO thing on that, citing that most cases there was a symptom or two in the days or even weeks prior, but was typically ignored... I just wonder if they may be so subtle it was easy to do so or something. But, that sucks if you just stand up and then that's it... wtf
I'm a little nervous about that sort of thing.  Why?  Because I've seen loved ones close to me have triple b-passes and stints and stuff.   My step father had an attack while..duh duh duhnnn shoveling snow back in 1999 ... he's alive and well now thanks as you say, to modern medicine.  But prior generational he'd a been a gonner.  
My biological father just had a full cardio work up ..nuclear stress test even... at 75 years of age and was cleared, despite being on blood pressure meds for five decades.  Said he had the cardiac health and vascular venting of a much younger man. The rest of him? Yeah, piece of schit... so he complains, including his attitude, but that's all a different thing emoji4.png    However, his father (my g-dad) died abruptly at 84 from a massive event.  So although it's not altogether hugely prevalent in my family... it's not absent either. And, my family is after all American, and we are all unwitting, you, me, the users of this forum, and everyone they know... victims of the "Industrial Food Complex" ... which hasn't been altogether honest about what processing of simple carbs and sugars does to both BP and heart health.  
I don't drink or smoke.  I sleep, work out, and eat well, and religiously work out three to four times a week, rigorously.  I am not over weight.  My BP probably needs to be checked out seeing as my dad had it, and he never drank either.  They don't call it the 'silent killer' for nothing.  My hands get cold at my desk and I get posterior hypotension when I stand up too quickly...which is consistent with normal BP... but, instead of getting checked out I hate doctors and hospitals and suffer white-coat syndrome ... 
God...sometimes i think it's better if we were just born dolphins to dogs... they don't care because ignorance is bliss.  

You would be surprised how many people call ems and by the time I show up, they have been having an MI (heart attack) for several days. I hook up the EKG and see that they already have parts of the heart that are no longer functional.

Must stand for "Mayo-cardio Infarction"  ..

Hey I got your IM re the teleconnectors - just haven't had a chance to respond. I will though..

Link to comment
Share on other sites
NorEastermass128

NorEastermass128

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Semper911 said:

Are most of you blowing off the NWS 3pm shift of the rain/snow line towards the west? Some recent posts make it seem so. Is there any reasonable chance the line stays where it was? (They are the effing NWS, after all.)

NWS was spot on Friday poo pooing the event when most called BS. Who had the last laugh?  Go conservative and hope to be pleasantly surprised. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Why does the amount of moisture in the air have to change just due to the sun setting? It’s not like you’re evaporationally cooling.

Interesting.  Doesn't radiational cooling cause the dew to rise too?  I'm just used to like 39/20, the sun goes down, and then all the sudden its 30/25.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

NWS was spot on Friday poo pooing the event when most called BS. Who had the last laugh?  Go conservative and hope to be pleasantly surprised. 

Well, in my area they did ramp up amounts within 12-24 hours of the event, only to drop them during.

I am thinking this time they will be ok.   Agreed about going conservative

Link to comment
Share on other sites
powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It seems like more and more someone near 128 is gonna have huge paste.  Even if they dryslot, you could have 8-10" of man paste.  

Love that look when there's like 8" of snow sticking to the east side of tree trunks all the way up and down the tree.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Steve just quit the board.

Lol all I know is I am down to 27 and dropping,  miles and miles different setup. Much more traditional. 

Why is Pickles obsessed with Boston SE Mass? He's in Nashua I would be super stoked. I mean I run a facility in SECT so I have a vested interest in the Snow rain line. He's holed up in a foot plus

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Semper911

Semper911

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

NWS was spot on Friday poo pooing the event when most called BS. Who had the last laugh?  Go conservative and hope to be pleasantly surprised. 

Yeah they nailed Friday when all the models said we'd have snow. I don't know why I even look at the models if they are only a fraction of the story. Maybe I just start leaving it up to the experts, and save on stress. What falls, falls.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Steve just quit the board.

Way too low in NE CT imho. I actually think that area adjacent to the 600-800 foot hills in NW RI could really do well. 

Now theyll get 2" since I said that. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Think the bust potential is growing exponentially east of the Berks and south of Route 2

Wut?  Maybe E of ORH S of Pike but anyone N or W of there is getting warning snow.  Nobody in SNE should be planning on over a foot  or they are setting themselves up for disappointment.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
  • Author
Posted
1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Interesting.  Doesn't radiational cooling cause the dew to rise too?  I'm just used to like 39/20, the sun goes down, and then all the sudden its 30/25.

 

 

think of it this way

Pressure X Volume = Number of moles X a gass constant X Temperature

When radiational cooling takes place, the the temperature is dropping ... but, the pressure and volume in this above equation is remaining constant, and since the gas constant is not going to change, that means you have to input some sort of mass (number of moles) into the system in order to keep this physical equation ...   Input of water (raise DP)...  That source can come from the earth and see/hydro.. (yes snow and ice count in that...)  ... 

But, more often times in radiational cooling the pressure or volume may be changing a small amount and the DP can thus remain closer to constant while the temperature falls.  This latter effect can take place when diurnal cooling sets in, the Volume (lower thickness) goes down some as the primary balancing mechanism, and that allows the temperature to descend without having to input mass - this is more typically how the temp falls in late august through autumn. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Way too low in NE CT imho. I actually think that area adjacent to the 600-800 foot hills in NW RI could really do well. 

Now theyll get 2" since I said that. 

I could see North Foster Woodstock Killingly break a foot, map made by someone not familiar with local climo

Link to comment
Share on other sites
powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

 

think of it this way

Pressure X Volume = Number of moles X a gass constant X Temperature

When radiational cooling takes place, the the temperature is dropping ... but, the pressure and volume in this above equation is remaining constant, and since the gas constant is not going to change, that means you have to input some sort of mass (number of moles) into the system in order to keep this physical equation ...   Input of water (raise DP)...  That source can come from the earth and see/hydro.. (yes snow and ice count in that...)  ... 

But, more often times in radiational cooling the pressure or volume may be changing a small amount and the DP can thus remain closer to constant while the temperature falls.  This latter effect can take place when diurnal cooling sets in, the Volume (lower thickness) goes down some as the primary balancing mechanism, and that allows the temperature to descend without having to input mass - this is more typically how the temp falls in late august through autumn. 

Ahh bingo.  Thanks for that little lesson.  Makes sense and that pressure is the third variable I was missing in the equation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
  • Author
Posted
5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Way too low in NE CT imho. I actually think that area adjacent to the 600-800 foot hills in NW RI could really do well. 

Now theyll get 2" since I said that. 

:D 

this may be my Ray bomb for this season, but I think Scott ends up with 6" of near translucent slush - when he picks up a shovel full, and tips it, it's like the water pouring off the pasta in a colander. 

gradate that to Mt Manadnock's 18.55"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...