Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[STILL N OF PIKE]

11 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

If we end up mostly/all rain here...it'll be a tough pill to swallow.  Highs only climbed into the mid-upper 30s here today...a far cry from the putrid antecedent airmass before last week's storm.  

With out marine influence you would been in 40's like Nashua

Its not a great airmass, it's serviceable.

See how it stands up to deep easterly flow and no high anchored in Quebec.

BL flow from due east aint Gonna cut it

I see a good amount of slop

 

[powderfreak]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

With out marine influence you would been in 40's like Nashua

Its not a great airmass, it's serviceable.

See how it stands up to deep easterly flow and no high anchored in Quebec.

Dews were pretty low though... plenty of room to wet-bulb. 

Like ORH was upper 30s with dews 19-20F.

 

[Semper911]

25 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

You would be surprised how many people call ems and by the time I show up, they have been having an MI (heart attack) for several days. I hook up the EKG and see that they already have parts of the heart that are no longer functional.

Nice to see a rescue swimmer on our board. They were always the best of the best when I was in. Thanks for your service, Coastie.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Dews were pretty low though... plenty of room to wet-bulb. 

Like ORH was upper 30s with dews 19-20F.

 

Unlike last time ORH looks good to go

Under 400'500' ...whats Ur take pf

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Dews were pretty low though... plenty of room to wet-bulb. 

Like ORH was upper 30s with dews 19-20F.

 

Yeah my high was 39.. dew 24

[DomNH]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Dews were pretty low though... plenty of room to wet-bulb. 

Like ORH was upper 30s with dews 19-20F.

 

Yeah, not in the same ballpark as the 57/35 high at ASH last Thursday. I mean this isn't a frigid airmass but it'll be more than serviceable inland with the thump we're getting. I wouldn't worry in the interior at all...even a little bit. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, DomNH said:

Yeah, not in the same ballpark as the 57/35 high at ASH last Thursday. I mean this isn't a frigid airmass but it'll be more than serviceable inland with the thump we're getting. I wouldn't worry in the interior at all...even a little bit. 

What do you imagine ratio's to be in ASH

[DomNH]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What do you imagine ratio's to be in ASH

Close to 10:1 I think. I don't think it'll be as sloppy as it will be near the coast and snowgrowth should be very good. 

[ORH_wxman]

20 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Id Like some Mets to chime in on BL temps and ratios for 495 area. Im thinking they maybe bad below 4-500'

It's going to be all about precip rates. I always harp on it and it's annoying because it sounds like a hedge...but you have to lay out the scenarios. If we get that huge 0.75-1.0" qpf bomb in 6 hours then I have no issue with going 10 to 1 for the coastal plain of 495 from like Westford to LWM. But if we're only spitting out moderate 0.08 per hour type stuff in the bucket, then I think it could be a lot of 33F 7 to 1 stuff. I think we will have a good idea tonight. I'd like to see less dryslot punching through so quickly on the amped guidance. Euro type guidance is really nice in prolonging the midlevel goods before finally drying out. 

[powderfreak]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Unlike last time ORH looks good to go

Under 400'500' ...whats Ur take pf

I'm looking around at the temps... what's interesting to me is ORH had a high of 39F with afternoon dews at 19-20F like the last post stated.  However, now at 7pm it is 30/20 at ORH.  So they were able to radiate or cool with lack of insolation down below freezing without the dew point blinking.  I'm not sure how that happens honestly unless lower dews are being fed into the region.  They lost 9F from this afternoon without any change in dew point.  That's a very good sign IMO.

The extended HRRR radar product showed the CT Valley starting as rain and then flipping over to snow within two hours as temps went from like 36-37F to 33-34F... while the ORH hills are 30-32F.  That's why I think there's some elevation dependency to this.

Now that's not to say that it is raining in the lower elevations, not at all.  But I know Will mentioned it earlier, there is certainly a ratio difference between 33-34F and 30F.  But if you are getting 1/4sm +SN then you're going to 32/32 even on the valley floor, IMO. 

I guess I would say if precip is lighter or you are between stronger rad echoes the lowest areas of like 100-400ft could conceivably be 33-34F in SN/-SN while its 31-32F in +SN.  Who knows though, if the EURO products are correct, even the lowest elevations are going to be 31-32F regardless of precip intensity while the hills are 20s.

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Below 30F here at the moment.  A much better setup for snow than last week.  We don’t have much in these hills but we have some elevation.    Would love a 20” event. Haven’t had one since Oct 2011.   I’m thinking 14-18” IMBY 

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Below 30F here at the moment.  A much better setup for snow than last week.  We don’t have much in these hills but we have some elevation.    Would love a 20” event. Haven’t had one since Oct 2011.   I’m thinking 14-18” IMBY 

You didn't crack 20" in '13?

[BRSno]

1 hour ago, MarkO said:

Every major market tv met is giving Boston <3, as in inches, not love.

Too soon man, too soon! 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's going to be all about precip rates. I always harp on it and it's annoying because it sounds like a hedge...but you have to lay out the scenarios. If we get that huge 0.75-1.0" qpf bomb in 6 hours then I have no issue with going 10 to 1 for the coastal plain of 495 from like Westford to LWM. But if we're only spitting out moderate 0.08 per hour type stuff in the bucket, then I think it could be a lot of 33F 7 to 1 stuff. I think we will have a good idea tonight. I'd like to see less dryslot punching through so quickly on the amped guidance. Euro type guidance is really nice in prolonging the midlevel goods before finally drying out. 

This man should never pay for food or drink at gtg's

Thank you

[HoarfrostHubb]

4 minutes ago, Hoth said:

You didn't crack 20" in '13?

Nope.  19”.   I was depressed for 2 years...

[STILL N OF PIKE]

8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I'm looking around at the temps... what's interesting to me is ORH had a high of 39F with afternoon dews at 19-20F like the last post stated.  However, now at 7pm it is 30/20 at ORH.  So they were able to radiate or cool with lack of insolation down below freezing without the dew point blinking.  I'm not sure how that happens honestly unless lower dews are being fed into the region.  They lost 9F from this afternoon without any change in dew point.  That's a very good sign IMO.

The extended HRRR radar product showed the CT Valley starting as rain and then flipping over to snow within two hours as temps went from like 36-37F to 33-34F... while the ORH hills are 30-32F.  That's why I think there's some elevation dependency to this.

Now that's not to say that it is raining in the lower elevations, not at all.  But I know Will mentioned it earlier, there is certainly a ratio difference between 33-34F and 30F.  But if you are getting 1/4sm +SN then you're going to 32/32 even on the valley floor, IMO. 

I guess I would say if precip is lighter or you are between stronger rad echoes the lowest areas of like 100-400ft could conceivably be 33-34F in SN/-SN while its 31-32F in +SN.  Who knows though, if the EURO products are correct, even the lowest elevations are going to be 31-32F regardless of precip intensity while the hills are 20s.

 

I really enjoy your input and you basically said the same as Will. Thanks.

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I'm looking around at the temps... what's interesting to me is ORH had a high of 39F with afternoon dews at 19-20F like the last post stated.  However, now at 7pm it is 30/20 at ORH.  So they were able to radiate or cool with lack of insolation down below freezing without the dew point blinking.  I'm not sure how that happens honestly unless lower dews are being fed into the region.  They lost 9F from this afternoon without any change in dew point.  That's a very good sign IMO.

The extended HRRR radar product showed the CT Valley starting as rain and then flipping over to snow within two hours as temps went from like 36-37F to 33-34F... while the ORH hills are 30-32F.  That's why I think there's some elevation dependency to this.

Now that's not to say that it is raining in the lower elevations, not at all.  But I know Will mentioned it earlier, there is certainly a ratio difference between 33-34F and 30F.  But if you are getting 1/4sm +SN then you're going to 32/32 even on the valley floor, IMO. 

I guess I would say if precip is lighter or you are between stronger rad echoes the lowest areas of like 100-400ft could conceivably be 33-34F in SN/-SN while its 31-32F in +SN.  Who knows though, if the EURO products are correct, even the lowest elevations are going to be 31-32F regardless of precip intensity while the hills are 20s.

 

I’d rather not be in the 20’s though I’m fairly certain this ends up a powdery esque event with 28.1 being the common temp during the blitz 

[bobbutts]

[dendrite]

12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I'm looking around at the temps... what's interesting to me is ORH had a high of 39F with afternoon dews at 19-20F like the last post stated.  However, now at 7pm it is 30/20 at ORH.  So they were able to radiate or cool with lack of insolation down below freezing without the dew point blinking.  I'm not sure how that happens honestly unless lower dews are being fed into the region.  They lost 9F from this afternoon without any change in dew point.  That's a very good sign IMO.

The extended HRRR radar product showed the CT Valley starting as rain and then flipping over to snow within two hours as temps went from like 36-37F to 33-34F... while the ORH hills are 30-32F.  That's why I think there's some elevation dependency to this.

Now that's not to say that it is raining in the lower elevations, not at all.  But I know Will mentioned it earlier, there is certainly a ratio difference between 33-34F and 30F.  But if you are getting 1/4sm +SN then you're going to 32/32 even on the valley floor, IMO. 

I guess I would say if precip is lighter or you are between stronger rad echoes the lowest areas of like 100-400ft could conceivably be 33-34F in SN/-SN while its 31-32F in +SN.  Who knows though, if the EURO products are correct, even the lowest elevations are going to be 31-32F regardless of precip intensity while the hills are 20s.

 

Why does the amount of moisture in the air have to change just due to the sun setting? It’s not like you’re evaporationally cooling.

[CoastalWx]

I would kill for March 1 2005. God, what a epic positive bust. Wow. That will not happen,but we can dream.

[CoastalWx]

It seems like more and more someone near 128 is gonna have huge paste.  Even if they dryslot, you could have 8-10" of man paste.  

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Do you have a loop of that...  cool

Weather.us

U

[Weatherexpert]

Prepare for the storm of a lifetime!!! Just kidding, but we will be experiencing a lot of snowfall, typical March behavior. tricky

[USCG RS]

Nice to see a rescue swimmer on our board. They were always the best of the best when I was in. Thanks for your service, Coastie.

Your words are kind, thank you brother (or sister). Back at you fellow Coastie.

[ineedsnow]

from western mass news.  Ugh think there will be surprised people tomorrow.  4 to 6 is way to low

Snow amounts will max out in the Berkshires, where 12-18" is expected. The western slopes will see a bit less, but still near a foot and the highest amounts will be on the eastern slopes. Amounts of 6-12" are expected through central and eastern Franklin County, much of Hampshire and western and eastern Hampden counties. The river valley may get "shadowed" where the snow gets blocked by the hills and will only end up around 4-6"-which includes the greater Springfield area.

[Buddy1987]

Got the wifey to drive from 9p-11p on our trek up to CT  so I can view the NAM and GFS with you all. Talk soon! 

[Hoth]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

from western mass news.  Ugh think there will be surprised people tomorrow.  4 to 6 is way to low

Snow amounts will max out in the Berkshires, where 12-18" is expected. The western slopes will see a bit less, but still near a foot and the highest amounts will be on the eastern slopes. Amounts of 6-12" are expected through central and eastern Franklin County, much of Hampshire and western and eastern Hampden counties. The river valley may get "shadowed" where the snow gets blocked by the hills and will only end up around 4-6"-which includes the greater Springfield area.

Codfish just left the board.

[Ginx snewx]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I would kill for March 1 2005. God, what a epic positive bust. Wow. That will not happen,but we can dream.

Solid solid winter month

[Sugarloaf1989]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

from western mass news.  Ugh think there will be surprised people tomorrow.  4 to 6 is way to low

Snow amounts will max out in the Berkshires, where 12-18" is expected. The western slopes will see a bit less, but still near a foot and the highest amounts will be on the eastern slopes. Amounts of 6-12" are expected through central and eastern Franklin County, much of Hampshire and western and eastern Hampden counties. The river valley may get "shadowed" where the snow gets blocked by the hills and will only end up around 4-6"-which includes the greater Springfield area.

I'm thinking the same, with snow struggling to accumulate during the day.

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

I'm thinking the same, with snow struggling to accumulate during the day.

I honestly doubt it will matter much when the goods come in. Looks like a pretty hellacious thump in the afternoon. Thundersnow, 1-3" hour rates. I think it will be fun.