Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    18,635
    Total Members
    14,841
    Most Online
    SENCMike
    Newest Member
    SENCMike
    Joined

February is upon us - pattern change is in order

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
AfewUniversesBelowNormal

AfewUniversesBelowNormal

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, CT Rain said:

Well this could be interesting. Pretty mega blocking. 

 

500za_week3_bg.png

What an aesthetic image, The North Pacific ridge is very far Southwest. There is really no analog for this type of intensity/placement. 83-84 was pretty close with a +PNA but this is something special about this Winter, how far south big ridges have set up. It has to be a La Nina 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

What an aesthetic image, The North Pacific ridge is very far Southwest. There is really no analog for this type of intensity/placement. 83-84 was pretty close with a +PNA but this is something special about this Winter, how far south big ridges have set up. It has to be a La Nina 

35 years into the future of GW ... that's what? 

Frankly, [entirely hypothesis/suppositional] but I've been wondering for some time, if the propensity over recent years to drive heights high in the NE Pacific, ..subsequently, physically instructive on carving out the JB "polar vortex" ...isn't all part of that.  

The problem is, surplus oceanic heat in the winter months... First, water's specific heat is several orders of magnitude greater than air. Second, the Pacific's oceanic SSTs and thermocline numbers have been elevated for some time, regardless of ENSO. The whole domain, including the middle latitudes are above normal... Perhaps not true at all times? But certainly the majority over the last ..decades really.  And, not just the Pacific; this has been true over the Global oceanic regions, not just in the equitorial band/districts associated with Pacific NINO monitoring.  Pervasively...there is a thermal surplus out there in the whole of the ocean.  Such that when the hemisphere starts to cool in the Autumn, that becomes an ever increasing heat source that is exposed by the steepening gradient (seasonal)... Eventually, exhausting into billowing atmospheric heights nearing/ivo Alaska... 

I have noticed that regardless of El Nino or La Nina ... this tendency/flow construct has been steadily more favored over the last 10 or even 20 years. So, that immediately questions the cause as not being entirely related to either leading state of the ENSO.  So, ...something other than 'just that' is contributing.  

Then, all of that has to hide behind the dogma and mantra about 'any one pattern can't be blamed on x-y-z' while it's entirely x-y-z's fault... but that's another point of rage in the minds of GW deniers - haha. 

Anyway, part of this isn't really all my idea.  I remember reading an article way back in the day... late 1980s or very early 1990s, Scientific American I think was the publication. The article had to do with GW, early days style ... when everything was speculative and there was far less actual empirical data/results observable in the environment.  Since? Oh we have a cornucopia of them, too long to list here... the most shocking of which is the triggering of the next major extinction event (chapter four in this science "fiction"..). This article dealt specifically with the base-line weather pattern in a warmer(ing)world, leading to harsh winters over N/A...  The cause? The tendency for raising heights causing sloped flow downstream over the continent.  It also delved into the science of the thermalhaline cycle and the north Atlantic triggering harsh winters over eastern Canada and western Euro. This latter stuff deals with surface salinity altering the density ...and deflecting the Gulf stream south and/or eventually shutting down the conveyor system that delivers warmth to higher Atlantic Basin latitudes.  ...  The gist of the article was the counter-intuitive interim effects of GW...  

Well... bounce ahead 30 years... I am not sure what the status of the back-ground salinity of the N Atlantic surface waters are, or if there is any quantized measuring of the Gufl stream losing any momentum/effectiveness... But, the NE Pacific propensity to encourage blocking there, seemingly doing so regardless of aspects such as ENSO... mm, interesting. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...