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mappy

Jan 16/17 Event Obs/Disc

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Big gradient across the mountians if there's 1.5" in smithtown and nothing here or in Westminster.

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Just now, Z-Cast said:

Two threads and 36 pages for a car topper if we are lucky.

 

Turning into An Average La Nina Winter

FYP. Also, it doesn't matter if this is a car topper if we're lucky. Not like we're gonna shift our focus away from an event happening within 1 day to threats 7 days out that will disappear within the next 2 or 3 days. 

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Snow is tapering off.  1.2" on 0.08" liquid.  For all those numerous runs of the NAM and RGEM that showed 0.20-0.40" of QPF, the GFS and the last 48 hours of Euro runs were much closer to what fell.

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33 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Not surprising..it's been virga here for an hour or 2 . Winds out of the west not a good sign either.  Probably will cut things off quickly 

Coming down nicely as of 10 min ago. Best rates of the winter so far. Deck covered already.

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8 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Snow is tapering off.  1.2" on 0.08" liquid.  For all those numerous runs of the NAM and RGEM that showed 0.20-0.40" of QPF, the GFS and the last 48 hours of Euro runs were much closer to what fell.

Thats a gradient!  To say I have a dusting is being generous and you are barely 10 miles to my NW.  

Light snow. 30*

Oh well.... You lose some, you lose some..

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Should have known with the lowering DP's earlier.......snow evaporating off radar to my west. I am done with 10 minutes of pixie dust. Fully expect to see snow blossom on a Richmond to Greensboro line within the hour. Classic, classic transfer for here.

MAYBE it can back in to here, but that would be asking a lot, kudos to the King, nailed it.

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9 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Thats a gradient!  To say I have a dusting is being generous and you are barely 10 miles to my NW.  

Light snow. 30*

Oh well.... You lose some, you lose some..

Sorry you weren't able to get in on it, Poolz.  It's a very fluffy snow.  Doesn't even stick to your shoes.  I think another 10 miles to my NW, in the Big Pool/ Ft. Frederick area, they probably picked up twice what I have here.  Crazy how little the precip shield moved all day.

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10 minutes ago, Amped said:

Wow models really barfed on the closed H5 low in the short range.  Won't matter for us, but makes a pretty big difference for S VA and NC

Even more snow there?

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39 minutes ago, Amped said:

Big gradient across the mountians if there's 1.5" in smithtown and nothing here or in Westminster.

Starting snowing lightly  around 4pm. Occasionally moderate but mostly light stuff. Looks like a total of 1.75. 

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42 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Snow is tapering off.  1.2" on 0.08" liquid.  For all those numerous runs of the NAM and RGEM that showed 0.20-0.40" of QPF, the GFS and the last 48 hours of Euro runs were much closer to what fell.

Yep. I was hoping for once they would be right. Some of there runs over the last 2 days gave me 4 to 6 inches. GFS and Euro nailed the liquid aspect of it out our way.

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All models did this, but here is the NAM valid in 24hrs. Quite a change from 12z.  Unfortunately not going to help us.

EDIT: CMC had close to the correct depiction, GFS Euro and NAM didn't do to well.

EjWPP2G.gif

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34 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Starting snowing lightly  around 4pm. Occasionally moderate but mostly light stuff. Looks like a total of 1.75. 

Wow....we got a dusting here in the Southern end of the county

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Steady snow 29F  

Winds switching to the NE

Around 1" 

Back edge in Fred. Co.  It appears 

Looks like short r models have possible snow showers refiring early tomorrow am ..wait and see.

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2 minutes ago, Mimiof2 said:

Wow....we got a dusting here in the Southern end of the county

The cut off was crazy.  Watching radar most of the afternoon route 70 was the deviding line with the training of echos.

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Heavy precip down tx/la/ms and watch national radar 12 hour; like balls or streams of moisture firing off but can't hit us

Be great to get that main mass down there up here 

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5 hours ago, Tenman Johnson said:

You do not need models right now. Since noon the radar has shown little eastward movement.  Our only hope is the area down in Tennessee which picked up some moisture early this afternoon and does have some eastward component to it

 

It's getting close

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Just now, Tenman Johnson said:

It's funny but right this instant there are radar returns  from just nw of Richmond to Lancaster PA except for s blank area right around D.C.

Looks like it's trying to fill in, but mostly virga. Looks like decent returns to the South, but not sure if virga or not either. 

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