January 12-14 Kitchen Sink Storm Discussion

[STILL N OF PIKE]

52 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2 posts on the 00z GFS...all you need to know about where this threat trended

Colder for me, prob you as well

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Colder for me, prob you as well

Gonna need more than that.

Still possible, but running short on time.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

50 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Gonna need more than that.

Still possible, but running short on time.

Well gfs is awful w 2 temps, im liking that its pinning model track over S coast.

Im ice on the nam and pretty damn much there on gfs giving track and its issues W Thermals.

I wanna see euro track along s coast now 

(Ukie and cmc) look Crappy To me but Trend...

[wx2fish]

Euro was weaker and more progressive than 12z, but still blows through most of the qpf before the cold can get established. Better run for NVT, probably flip to SN up there

[CoastalWx]

NAM is an ice box, but basically goes against the other guidance. 

[Modfan]

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM is an ice box, but basically goes against the other guidance. 

Ice box for everyone? 

[Damage In Tolland]

NAM seems to be all over this. Good model to have on your side if one was looking for ice

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

NAM seems to be all over this. Good model to have on your side if one was looking for ice

I’m pretty much tossing it.

[dryslot]

Model trends so far today has weakened that second wave coming up from the south and is tracking further east allowing the colder air to get in here faster and change the precip over to a mixed bag, Euro caved to the other guidance at 12z from its 0z run.

[Cold Miser]

Was hoping the forum was going to stay off-line until this disaster of storm came and went.  

[powderfreak]

12z EURO actually had some decent snow up this way to end it all.  That was a huge shift from 00z.

[dryslot]

Weenies crashing the board.

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Weenies crashing the board.

Doesn't that usually require something interesting going on? 

(Y'know, outside of the wild frontiers of CNE and NNE) 

[dryslot]

Just now, PeabodyFlood said:

Doesn't that usually require something interesting going on? 

Why? There isn't?

[Damage In Tolland]

9 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM is an ice box, but basically goes against the other guidance. 

Not anymore 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not anymore 

 Meh I don’t see anything exciting south of the pike. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

 Meh I don’t see anything exciting south of the pike. 

We ain’t done trending friend 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We ain’t done trending friend 

 Who cares. We wipe it clean and maybe you get freezing drizzle oh joy. 

[ORH_wxman]

Def a pretty uncertain forecast....I was looking at the SREFs...and yes, I know they are well outside any useful range...but the ARW members which are typically all amped up to Ottawa have a massive spread...some are frigid and some are really amped.

 

Same can be said for the GEFS and EPS...pretty large spread. I think we still need a lot of help down in SNE...esp outside of N ORH county over to MPM....but it's still plausible we get some decent wintry precip...even if it waits until midday Saturday.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 Who cares. We wipe it clean and maybe you get freezing drizzle oh joy. 

One more bump and it’s an icestorm most of interior SNE that ends as snow and Pats play in snow 

[Cold Miser]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Def a pretty uncertain forecast....I was looking at the SREFs...and yes, I know they are well outside any useful range...but the ARW members which are typically all amped up to Ottawa have a massive spread...some are frigid and some are really amped.

 

Same can be said for the GEFS and EPS...pretty large spread. I think we still need a lot of help down in SNE...esp outside of N ORH county over to MPM....but it's still plausible we get some decent wintry precip...even if it waits until midday Saturday.

Foxboro Miracle. 

[wxeyeNH]

Jeez,  Im like a lost puppy without AMWX.   Kept checking it today.  Interesting trend for me up here in Central New England.  Slight changes mean big differences in sensible weather.  The trend is definitely colder.  I guess the question for me up here in North Dendriteland is the second wave mostly freezing rain or do I get into sleet or even snow?

[Spanks45]

0z EURO had my high at 53 for Saturday, the 12z is 32....pretty big shift over here

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, wxeyeNH said:

Jeez,  Im like a lost puppy without AMWX.   Kept checking it today.  Interesting trend for me up here in Central New England.  Slight changes mean big differences in sensible weather.  The trend is definitely colder.  I guess the question for me up here in North Dendriteland is the second wave mostly freezing rain or do I get into sleet or even snow?

I'll bet you get some sleet/snow out of this. But the obvious question is when that happens. It could end as a couple hours of it or most of Saturday could be snow/sleet. This will also affect how much ZR falls there as the counter to the colder scenario.

[ineedsnow]

18z nam looks to be coming in colder

[Whineminster]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

One more bump and it’s an icestorm most of interior SNE that ends as snow and Pats play in snow 

Gawd I hope you're right.  Last thing we need right now is a pack wiping rain.  

Is this trending to mostly frozen for the North Country?  Hopefully still get some skimobiling in. 

Friday is still a wash out though.  I find it hard to believe we hit 50s for two days, then the next day to go ZR when the ground and trees and everything is all warmed up. 

[dryslot]

Those surface temps on the nam are real cold.

[Lava Rock]

Sure did hit F5 a lot today. Glad to be back online. Curious, does the board use host gator? Interestingly, my website was down all day till just now.

[ORH_wxman]

18z NAM is icy over even SNE on Saturday....we'll see if globals follow suit at 00z.

[wxeyeNH]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'll bet you get some sleet/snow out of this. But the obvious question is when that happens. It could end as a couple hours of it or most of Saturday could be snow/sleet. This will also affect how much ZR falls there as the counter to the colder scenario.

Thanks for your insight!