Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,509
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    joxey
    Newest Member
    joxey
    Joined

January 12-14 Kitchen Sink Storm Discussion

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

Recommended Posts

Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro is still pretty warm too. NAM is def an outlier right now. The NAM's track makes the most sense...it's not tracking the thing over interior SNE like a lot of global models are and instead pushes it SE. But still...you want to see some consensus take shape. We will see what 12z today brings. 

If the NAM makes sense Ryan has his hands full, 12K (shown 2nd)but 3k says congrats MPM and Hippy Chris and Hunchie

zr_acc.us_ne (1).png

zr_acc.us_ne.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 875
  • Created
  • Last Reply
mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted
58 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Including Saturday? Riding the GFS?

 

The sense I was getting from GYX and from Will was that the qpf scould be fairly low once the cold air has gotten in.  Wouldn't the Saturday low have to be pretty strong to get enough forcing behind the front?  Of course that was my weenie interpretation, which as we know is frequently wrong.  My sense was that much of the qpf would fall while we were in the warm sector.  I'd love more ice and sleet after, to solidify the pack before next weeks powder.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

The sense I was getting from GYX and from Will was that the qpf scould be fairly low once the cold air has gotten in.  Wouldn't the Saturday low have to be pretty strong to get enough forcing behind the front?  Of course that was my weenie interpretation, which as we know is frequently wrong.  My sense was that much of the qpf would fall while we were in the warm sector.  I'd love more ice and sleet after, to solidify the pack before next weeks powder.

The midlevel front is lagging the sfc one. So it's not going to take much of a wave to throw back some precip in the freezing or frozen form. The NAM gives us a few inches of snow to finish (dangerously assuming H85 is close to the warmest level). I feel like we'll finish as a period (1/4" QPF?) of ZR to IP and then some flakes to finish it off. In the meantime, I will enjoy the torch and dry skin relief.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The midlevel front is lagging the sfc one. So it's not going to take much of a wave to throw back some precip in the freezing or frozen form. The NAM gives us a few inches of snow to finish (dangerously assuming H85 is close to the warmest level). I feel like we'll finish as a period (1/4" QPF?) of ZR to IP and then some flakes to finish it off. In the meantime, I will enjoy the torch and dry skin relief.

embrace the torch!  In Dover i'm excited about cleaner sidewalks.  It is good to have a pause in winter I think. Could be an epic 2nd half.  A little off topic, but I am wondering if the thaw that comes could be one of those thaws where most of the country warms, but New England spends some time north of the gradient, so we go up and down during the last 2 weeks of Jan, and then the patterns shifts again and we are back to winter weather for February.  Seems like it really wants to snow this year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

The sense I was getting from GYX and from Will was that the qpf scould be fairly low once the cold air has gotten in.  Wouldn't the Saturday low have to be pretty strong to get enough forcing behind the front?  Of course that was my weenie interpretation, which as we know is frequently wrong.  My sense was that much of the qpf would fall while we were in the warm sector.  I'd love more ice and sleet after, to solidify the pack before next weeks powder.

That's certainly a risk with this. BUT I'm watching the northern stream torch wave we have traversing Quebec tomorrow. That wave continues to come in stronger on guidance. With that trend, I think it's possible to see better UL height falls behind it in the Northern Stream, which will give us our Canadian HP without having to completely dampen the southern stream wave...

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

embrace the torch!  In Dover i'm excited about cleaner sidewalks.  It is good to have a pause in winter I think. Could be an epic 2nd half.  A little off topic, but I am wondering if the thaw that comes could be one of those thaws where most of the country warms, but New England spends some time north of the gradient, so we go up and down during the last 2 weeks of Jan, and then the patterns shifts again and we are back to winter weather for February.  Seems like it really wants to snow this year.

After the epic 11-15 day torch fail which is now our 5-10 cold shot I don't trust anything until its short term

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
  • Author
Posted
3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Kinda of a squeeze play. Best upper level dynamics out west into W NY and the redeveloping low level centers to our SE.

Got a feeling it will mostly end up as FZDZ once the cold in the low levels moves in. You might get a little more qpf up there but the guidance is wanting to speed everything up. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...