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ORH_wxman

January 12-14 Kitchen Sink Storm Discussion

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Clown range NAM looks primed for an ice event at least for CNE...perhaps interior SNE. Rest of 12z suite will need to come back SE some to get the more wintry solutions back on the table south of dendrite.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS trends warmer again....no frozen really for anyone outside of powderfreak land.

Yup. Writing is on the wall. 

Never say never but the overnight trends were a disaster. 

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5 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yup. Writing is on the wall. 

Never say never but the overnight trends were a disaster. 

PV up north is weaker on all these runs allowing the southern stream to ride right up the apps. Not gonna get any frozen that way in our region.

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS trends warmer again....no frozen really for anyone outside of powderfreak land.

That gradient is insane on that run.

96 hour plots...

17F at BTV while its 60F at ORH.  Even SLK at 12F and PLB in the Champlain Valley at 13F.

nH9PZLP.png

Kd7iKs7.png

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

PV up north is weaker on all these runs allowing the southern stream to ride right up the apps. Not gonna get any frozen that way in our region.

At least south of the Pike it's not a great setup for ice anyway. I can't remember many storms where the follow up wave managed to go from rain to freezing rain with a northerly drain. I felt that even if the colder solutions verified it would probably be more of a mild rain to a cold rain (unless it was far enough south to go sleet or snow). 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

PV up north is weaker on all these runs allowing the southern stream to ride right up the apps. Not gonna get any frozen that way in our region.

This is one of the few tracks, that if it can track under BTV, that the Champlain Valley could end up with a huge ice storm.  They get that northerly drain and you see it go all the way to GFL/RUT.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That gradient is insane on that run.

96 hour plots...

17F at BTV while its 60F at ORH.  Even SLK at 12F and PLB in the Champlain Valley at 13F.

 

 

Def a ripe setup for a sick sfc temp gradient. Not trending the right way though for the region. Don't like seeing the PV keep weakening up north...if that keeps up this low will end up going through MSS.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Def a ripe setup for a sick sfc temp gradient. Not trending the right way though for the region. Don't like seeing the PV keep weakening up north...if that keeps up this low will end up going through MSS.

That's what I think will be the eventual track. 

That track modeled is not seen very often.  Its usually all or nothing. 

Not saying it couldn't happen, but it usually likes to go north of the Adirondack High Peaks region and MSS ends up being the spot wedged in with NE flow down the St Lawrence. 

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12z GGEM isn't worth much, but that's a big ZR/IP storm north of RUT-LCI-BGR.

Very similar track to the GFS, which as I said its very rare to see lows go from like ALB to CON, so I don't think that's how this plays out.

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8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That's what I think will be the eventual track. 

That track modeled is not seen very often.  Its usually all or nothing. 

Not saying it couldn't happen, but it usually likes to go north of the Adirondack High Peaks region and MSS ends up being the spot wedged in with NE flow down the St Lawrence. 

 

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

12z GGEM isn't worth much, but that's a big ZR/IP storm north of RUT-LCI-BGR.

Very similar track to the GFS, which as I said its very rare to see lows go from like ALB to CON, so I don't think that's how this plays out.

 

Agreed...prob not tracking through the interior mountains like that. Based on trends over the past 24 hours, you'd have to favor St. Lawrence valley or something close.

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

 

Agreed...prob not tracking through the interior mountains like that. Based on trends over the past 24 hours, you'd have to favor St. Lawrence valley or something close.

Yeah it's funny I have this general notion that messy events tend to track further NW with time, while stuff tracking near the coast goes SE with time.  Of course that's grossly over simplified and lots of factors at play, but I think there's also some very weak reasoning in that lows don't normallyjust track through New England.  It's either going to trend towards being over the water near the better baroclinic zone or it's going to go north of the mountains up the St Lawrence.  So lows modeled between those two areas tend to go towards those distinct tracks.

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We're still freezing up a bit after the rain though, correct? I'm glad the snow is melting a bit before that. I go for a run every night regardless of weather, but I can't stand running in slush puddles because drains are clogged.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

#climobeforeavacation

Next rainer at Presidents Weekend.

What awesome conditions overall and then this. WTF. I'm not even trying to rub it in....that completely stinks.. I suppose maybe far NNE could fair ok.

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8 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Which model is Kevin going with now? It was the Euro then the GFS... now what? 

84 hour rgem looks kind of uppressed....

 

maybe nogaps?

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What awesome conditions overall and then this. WTF. I'm not even trying to rub it in....that completely stinks.. I suppose maybe far NNE could fair ok.

  Awesome conditions were slightly less enjoyable with the temperatures so cold and then we get the rain that is what really hurts.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

That gradient is insane on that run.

96 hour plots...

17F at BTV while its 60F at ORH.  Even SLK at 12F and PLB in the Champlain Valley at 13F.

nH9PZLP.png

That temp gradient reminds me of 20 years ago, only 50-75 miles farther north.  Back then, N.Maine had teens and snow, C.Maine ice and devastation, SNE 30s-40s RA, NYC 60s RA.

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