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January 4-6 Coastal Bomb Observations/Nowcast


Baroclinic Zone

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9 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Some thoughts signing off and dragging myself back to reality...

1) This was a blizzard. Objectively.

KBOS 042154Z 32027G34KT 1/4SM R04R/2600V3000FT +SN BLSN FZFG VV005 M03/M03 A2885 RMK AO2 PK WND 32042/2141 SLP770 P0002 T10281033 $
KBOS 042101Z 33023G37KT 1/4SM R04R/2200V2600FT +SN BLSN FZFG VV007 M01/M02 A2886 RMK AO2 PK WND 33037/2055 P0000 T10111017 $
KBOS 042054Z 33026G36KT 1/4SM R04R/2000V2200FT +SN BLSN FZFG VV007 M01/M02 A2886 RMK AO2 PK WND 34044/2026 SLP771 P0007 60024 T10111017 56080 $
KBOS 042039Z 33026G36KT 1/4SM R04R/2200V2600FT +SN BLSN FZFG VV007 M01/M02 A2887 RMK AO2 PK WND 34044/2026 P0006 T10111017 $
KBOS 042015Z 35027G38KT 1/4SM R04R/1400V1600FT +SN BLSN FZFG VV005 M01/M02 A2888 RMK AO2 PK WND 35041/1956 P0003 T10111017 $
KBOS 041954Z 34027G39KT 1/8SM R04R/1000V1200FT +SN BLSN FZFG VV004 M02/M02 A2890 RMK AO2 PK WND 35039/1944 SLP785 P0011 T10171022 $
KBOS 041923Z 34023G36KT 1/8SM R04R/1000V1200FT +SN BLSN FZFG VV004 M02/M03 A2894 RMK AO2 PK WND 34036/1916 P0007 T10221028 $
KBOS 041854Z 34018G31KT 1/4SM R04R/1600V1800FT +SN BLSN FZFG VV007 M02/M03 A2899 RMK AO2 PK WND 35034/1831 PRESFR SLP816 P0006 T10221028 $
KBOS 041833Z 35023G34KT 1/4SM R04R/2000V2200FT +SN BLSN FZFG FEW005 OVC009 M02/M03 A2902 RMK AO2 PK WND 35034/1831 PRESFR P0005 T10221028 $
KBOS 041810Z 35022G29KT 1/8SM R04R/1400V2400FT +SN BLSN FZFG VV005 M02/M03 A2906 RMK AO2 PK WND 34029/1810 PRESFR P0004 T10221028 $
KBOS 041754Z 36018G33KT 1/8SM R04R/0600V0800FT +SN BLSN FZFG VV004 M02/M03 A2909 RMK AO2 PK WND 36036/1714 SLP851 P0011 60033 T10221028 11022 21044 56126 $
KBOS 041745Z 35022G30KT 1/8SM R04R/0800V1600FT +SN BLSN FZFG VV004 M02/M03 A2909 RMK AO2 PK WND 36036/1714 PRESFR P0009 T10221028 $
KBOS 041736Z 35021G31KT 1/4SM R04R/1400V1800FT +SN BLSN FZFG VV005 M02/M03 A2911 RMK AO2 PK WND 36036/1714 P0008 T10221028 $
KBOS 041719Z 36023G36KT 1/4SM R04R/1000V1600FT +SN BLSN FZFG VV004 M02/M03 A2912 RMK AO2 PK WND 36036/1714 P0004 T10221028 $
KBOS 041654Z 36024G34KT 1/16SM R04R/1200V1600FT +SN BLSN FZFG VV003 M02/M03 A2916 RMK AO2 PK WND 36037/1618 SLP874 P0014 T10221028 $
KBOS 041620Z 36026G37KT 1/8SM R04R/1000V1400FT +SN BLSN FZFG VV003 M03/M03 A2924 RMK AO2 PK WND 36037/1618 P0004 T10281033 $
KBOS 041609Z 36028G33KT 1/8SM R04R/1400V1800FT VCTS +SN BLSN FZFG VV004 M03/M04 A2926 RMK AO2 PK WND 36033/1603 PRESFR P0002 T10281039 $
KBOS 041559Z 36025G36KT 1/4SM R04R/1600V2200FT VCTS +SN BLSN FZFG VV006 M03/M04 A2928 RMK AO2 PK WND 36033/1556 LTG DSNT W PRESFR P0002 T10331039 $
KBOS 041554Z 36025G36KT 1/4SM R04R/1600V2400FT +SN BLSN FZFG VV006 M03/M04 A2930 RMK AO2 PK WND 36036/1553 LTG DSNT W PRESFR SLP922 P0003 T10331039 $
KBOS 041522Z 36021G27KT 1/4SM R04R/2400V3500FT +SN FZFG VV009 M04/M04 A2941 RMK AO2 PK WND 35027/1517 PRESFR P0001 T10391044 $
KBOS 041454Z 35018G24KT 1/2SM R04R/2400V2800FT SN FZFG VV011 M04/M05 A2947 RMK AO2 PK WND 36030/1425 SLP978 P0005 60005 T10391050 58044 $
KBOS 041440Z 35017G26KT 1/2SM R04R/2600V3500FT SN FZFG VV010 M04/M05 A2948 RMK AO2 PK WND 36030/1425 P0003 T10391050
KBOS 041420Z 36019G28KT 1/4SM R04R/1600V2600FT +SN FZFG VV008 M04/M05 A2949 RMK AO2 PK WND 35028/1418 P0002 T10441050

If that isn't a blizzard idk what is. Oh noes...a couple minutes where it only gusted to 29kt.

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7 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Continued thoughts signing off...

2) Wonder what you all think about model post-mortem... I thought NAM won here, big time. Sure it had it's usual apesh*t run yesterday, but overall, it was actually the closest verifying than the others. Euro was absolutely lagging. RGEM / CMC were atrocious.

Obviously we're not gonna crown NAM as the new king... this speaks more to the nature of this system than model dependability.

I agree, NAM led the way with this getting big snow back west of far Eastern CT.

 

Euro was lagging for sure with this one.  

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9 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Continued thoughts signing off...

2) Wonder what you all think about model post-mortem... I thought NAM won here, big time. Sure it had it's usual apesh*t run yesterday, but overall, it was actually the closest verifying than the others. Euro was absolutely lagging. RGEM / CMC were atrocious.

Obviously we're not gonna crown NAM as the new king... this speaks more to the nature of this system than model dependability.

NAVGEM performed well in the medium range.

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Recent SLP 960 mb at buoy 44011 with center estimated 50 nw of them. Also 31' waves. This one does not record winds. To the north Mount Desert Rock has 51 knots north gusting to 55 knots. From recent satellite obs, northeast trend with slight NNE jog and probable track now into Bay of Fundy with landfall near St John NB tonight. 

goes_ecan_1070_100.jpg

https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_ecan_1070_100.jpg

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Gfs was last place as usual 

Euro 2nd to last. Big struggle 

GGEM decent 

Ukie about like Euro 

Reggie was horrendous 

Nam great

Deep Thunder model was very good 

 

RPM was decent and as mentioned, of the global NAVGEM did well.

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Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Great job by Ray on this

I had briefly written it off.  I was still surprised by the positive bust

4 day weekend for my house

Agree!  The effort Ray have put in have borne fruit.  He really had the bands west of ORH nailed down and also to Kevin and west.  And Kevin said warnings west of the river to NY State-warranted!  

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1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

Are you blocked by anything that would lower your total?

I don't think so, this happened last March too with amounts so much higher so close by

I only observed one hour of really heavy snow in the late morning and another twenty minutes or so of it about 2 hours ago when that last area pivoted through

in between it was really showery, I expected central/western ct to be a few to several inches higher as well as nyc/li/ ema etc

there are lots of trees and the houses are fairly close together and the wind was insane so measuring very challenging but my friend was able to drive his saab right into the unshoveled driveway and the car is low and if there was a foot plus that never would have happened

when i was measuring i was coming up with 7-8 new and then we did get a good burst after so i could see up to 9 legit ...if you are right over the ct/ma border you are 2.5 mi from me as the crow flies

it did snow a long time today (5am-5pm) and i do not believe in 6 hour measurements etc unless a really long duration event so if there was an inch or so lost to compaction and wind fracturing maybe it was as much as 10??

i will tentatively keep it at 9 for now and from all the last minute computer forecast i saw it seems very meh to me, should have been a foot easy(hrrr,gfs,nam,etc etc plus all the expert analysis)......first thing this morning i would not have expected more than 6-10 but then everything just looked so incredible right into the first few hours of the event

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Calling it at 14" unless we get more, with possible range between 13.5-15" due to drifting issues.

January 2016 storm also had drifting issues and range of 13.5-15" so it's a tie between these two storms as my greatest single-storm snow total. 

However, today's the deepest snow I ever seen at 18-20" range in level areas with drifts as high as 3 feet.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thanks, buddy.

I'll analysis what went right and what went wrong in the a post the next day of two...gonna rest tonight. 

Seriously you nailed this area. I was skeptical of the 12''+ forecasts but they were dead on. 

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