dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, JC-CT said: Slightly east with the surface low and slightly west with the extent of western precipitation Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 definitely more progressive. Still looks good for most though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I wouldn't toss the 3km...wouldn't say I favor that at this point, but very feasible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, WintersComing said: Reggie is noticeably west at hrs 36-39 Its really not though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, WintersComing said: Still not sure why we are tossing anything at this point. You can see the standard NAM is still having issues with the convection down south. Not sure anyone can say one is right and one is wrong at this point. I's called consensus. If a model stick out like a sore thumb, it's likely incorrect and the 3km did that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, WintersComing said: Reggie is noticeably west at hrs 36-39 ignoring qpf, there is no question it is east of 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: I's called consensus. If a model stick out like a sore thumb, it's likely incorrect and the 3km did that. Yes, its an outlier right now, but so weren't the major hits a couple of days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, JC-CT said: ignoring qpf, there is no question it is east of 6z. Yeah, The slp is east of the 06z run, But it looks like the western side of the precip is basically the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 This is a serious question At what point do we abandon models and go with water vapor /down stream obs after 12z Globals roll in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 At least the models agree that 1P1 will get screwed no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 actually it's a pretty big cut in qpf as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Lack of blocking could save us from a 3km solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes, its an outlier right now, but so weren't the major hits a couple of days ago. Right. It's tossed until it has support. Do you all not read what I wrote? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Reggie dumps Boston metro up through down east but is stingy out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 25 minutes ago, JKEisMan said: 3k nam still brings the goods out west. hoping against hope... lol boxing day redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I's called consensus. If a model stick out like a sore thumb, it's likely incorrect and the 3km did that. Honestly there hasn't been much consensus other than a westward trend with most models. I'm not saying take the 3K to the bank but tossing anything at this point might be premature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Right. It's tossed until it has support. Do you all not read what I wrote? Chill out, Bob...no one is calling anyone out. But I take tossed as excluded as a viable solution...semantics, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The blend of 3km NAM and RGEM wouldn't be a bad forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Chill out, Bob...no one is calling anyone out. But I take tossed as excluded as a viable solution...semantics, I guess. tossed means not using it in your ensemble of guidance, I agree. It doesn't have to have lots of weight to not be tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 RPM is decently east as well...that leaves me to toss the westward NAM solutions from 06z and the 3km 12z solution. The non-hydrostatic models led the westward charge in the past 24-36 hours, but now you have disagreement amongst them in the nearer term...the RGEM/RPM are east of the amped NAM solutions, so that is a red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Lack of blocking could save us from a 3km solution. I don't want to be saved.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: actually it's a pretty big cut in qpf as well indeed Ya, real west on that model read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: RPM is decently east as well...that leaves me to toss the westward NAM solutions from 06z and the 3km 12z solution. The non-hydrostatic models led the westward charge in the past 24-36 hours, but now you have disagreement amongst them in the nearer term...the RGEM/RPM are east of the amped NAM solutions, so that is a red flag. Will-can you post RPM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I'd chuck the NAM pretty far at this point, but that can be said in most situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Rgem kind of keeps the goods inside of I-495. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: RPM is decently east as well...that leaves me to toss the westward NAM solutions from 06z and the 3km 12z solution. The non-hydrostatic models led the westward charge in the past 24-36 hours, but now you have disagreement amongst them in the nearer term...the RGEM/RPM are east of the amped NAM solutions, so that is a red flag. I agree its less likely...but I don't trust this system..the dynamics and power on display here is difficult for any model to harness...spoken from someone who wants nothing to do with a Berkshire bonanza. I agree, though..if modeling is correct, that outcome is pretty unlinlkely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Now the question becomes, How far east does this end up, It looks like the west trend is over for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Snow map from my blog yesterday afternoon. Haven't found reason to change it this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: RPM is decently east as well...that leaves me to toss the westward NAM solutions from 06z and the 3km 12z solution. The non-hydrostatic models led the westward charge in the past 24-36 hours, but now you have disagreement amongst them in the nearer term...the RGEM/RPM are east of the amped NAM solutions, so that is a red flag. You don't say.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Will-can you post RPM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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